Tuesday, October 3, 2017

NFL 2017: Week 5 Power Rankings & The Rest

Tier 1 - 0-16 Watch is On!

32.) Cleveland Browns  (0-4  =  63-107)
31.) San Francisco 49ers  (0-4  =  66-94)

There are two other 0-4 teams, but I think the Browns and 49ers have singled themselves out. The Browns are seemingly worse this year than last. It looks like DeShone Kizer was definitely rushed to the starting QB role (hey, maybe they could have used Kaep?). The defense is injured, and while they have that trove of picks you have to start at least questioning their talent evaluation. The 49ers were probably more expected to be terrible, and while they were good the last three weeks, they still have that unsightly week 1 result on their books, and an offense that scored 39 points in one game, and 27 in the other three combined.


Tier 2 - The Awful Teams with Interesting QB Questions

30.) Chicago Bears  (1-3  =  61-104)
29.) Indianapolis Colts  (1-3  =  71-136)
28.) Miami Dolphins  (1-2  =  25-57)

The Bears win over the Steelers will forever confound me. They are not a good team in any real way, but at least now they will test out #2 pick Mitchell Trubisky. Their OL has been better than I expected so I don't fear that they are feeding him to the lions. The Colts may finally get Andrew Luck back in two weeks, and while they have been on the whole quite bad, they still are just one game back in the division with all six division games still to come. Out of any team in this bottom three tiers, they have the best chance of turning things around by default. The Dolphins clearly do not. Jay Cutler seems like a failed experiment at this point. Maybe putting your hopes with a guy who displayed questionable commitment previously and making him come out of retirement wasn't a good idea. More depressing is how bad that offense is given the talent inherent on it.


Tier 3 - Who Knows?

27.) New York Giants  (0-4  =  60-95)
26.) New York Jets  (2-2  =  75-92)
25.) Los Angeles Chargers  (0-4  =  72-93)

The plight of the two New York teams is one of the more unexpected developments in recent years. For the team everyone expected to compete for a playoffs to be 0-4, with the team often called one of the worst rosters of all time at 2-2 is hilarious. Of course, the Jets beat two bad teams, and the Giants have lost to good ones. The Chargers are 0-4, and I fear their close losses may start spiraling into just a bad team. There's been a number of teams in recent years that started 0-3 or 0-4 with close losses and then just lose motivation and fall apart. Guess that is a risk for New York as well.


Tier 4 - The 2-2 Morass

24.) Baltimore Ravens  (2-2  =  60-80)
23.) Tennessee Titans  (2-2  =  100-1260
22.) Jacksonville Jaguars  (2-2  =  109-74)
21.) Arizona Cardinals  (2-2  =  74-91)
20.) Minnesota Vikings  (2-2  =  79-76)

It seems like way too much of the league is 2-2, and I really can't say anything worthwhile about these teams. The Cardinals and Vikings haven't played a totally bad game, so that's why they are leading this group, With the Vikings, I am starting to worry about their ability to keep pace as long as Bradford is out. The first three teams have all been blown out and blowed another team out. The Jaguars might be the weirdest, with two dominant wins and then a giant loss. I have no idea about these AFC South teams.


Tier 5 - The Saints, defenisve juggernaut?

19.) New Orleans Saints  (2-2  =  93-78)

The Saints have given up just 13 points in the last two games. They have held QBs to well under 300 yards, which is amazing given how both Bradford and Brady whooped them the first two weeks. The Saints defensive correction is so absurd. Who knows if it will last. Certainly Miami is not a real test at this point. But man, it would be interesting to see what exactly changed.


Tier 6 - The Fringe Playoff Contenders

18.) Cincinnati Bengals  (1-3  =  64-67)
17.) Houston Texans  (2-2  =  110-88)
16.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  (2-1  =  71-64)

I think the Bengals are a fringe playoff contender, because it is always nice to have one 1-3 team to look out for, and the Bengals are my pick. They could fairly easily be 3-1 right now. They handled Houston apart from the one broken TD run by Watson. They really choked away the Packers game. The Bengals defense has been really good all year. For the Texans, it might be an overreaction to that game, but with Watson they've looked really good on offense the last two weeks. I worry about Watson's week-to-week consistency, but this is a scarier version of any previous Bill O'Brien Houston team. Buccaneers showed some good resolve in coming back after blowing the lead, and more than anything they get a chance to make a statement on Thursday against the Patriots. Let's re-evaluate them after that.


Tier 7 - It Wasn't Supposed to Happen That Way

15.) Dallas Cowboys  (2-2  =  94-97)
14.) Oakland Raiders  (2-2  =  91-79)
13.) New England Patriots  (2-2  =  129-128)

All three teams lost games on Sunday. All three were preseason favorites (the Patriots deeply so) and all three have shown some serious flaws. The Cowboys passing offense has been very up and down and the defense hasn't held up well when they don't get pressure. The Raiders running game has been hit or miss, and the weapons suddenly don't look as scary. My guess is all three course-correct to some degree and each end up around the 10/11/12 win mark, but the questions on them right now are very real.


Tier 8 - The Meat of the NFC

12.) Washington Redskins  (2-2  =  91-89)
11.) Los Angeles Rams  (3-1  =  142-105)
10.) Seattle Seahawks  (2-2  =  94-77)
9.) Detroit Lions  (3-1  =  99-70)

There's a lot of just good teams through four weeks, that either had a lot of early-season buzz, have played well and/or have lost their games to good teams. The Redskins have two impressive losses, losing close games to a 3-1 Eagles team and 4-0 Chiefs team. The defense has made a massive upgrade from last season. The Rams, in a vacuum, may be the most impressive team so far, and if 2017 Jared Goff is the real Goff, this could get really exciting. The Seahawks are living in this air mostly on reputation, but they've always been rather slow starters. The Lions have been maybe the most impressive team not named the Rams given they were an inch or so to 4-0. That all said, there are questions on all these teams. For the Redskins, it is Kirk Cousins consistency. For the Rams it is the idea this is all a mirage (that team is not scoring 568 points). For the Seahawks it is the OL. For the Lions, it is a defense who's rise seems a bit too sharp.


Tier 9 - The Defensive Stalwarts

8.) Denver Broncos  (3-1  =  98-74)
7.) Buffalo Bills  (3-1  =  73-54)
6.) Philadelphia Eagles  (3-1  =  103-92)

The Broncos, Bills and Eagles all have 12-4 potential (yes, even the Bills) on the strengths of their defenses. The Broncos pass defense has actually slipped slightly, but now they just feature the best run defense in the NFL again. The Bills defense has been the league's best so far, and they really proved a lot going into Atlanta and slowing the Falcons down so well. The Eagles defense has given up some garbage time points, but their DLine has been dominant all season so far. The teams will likely o as far as their QBs can take them, and my level of confidence in each of the three QBs is reflected more or less in the order I put the team.


Tier 10 - The Top of the NFC

5.) Carolina Panthers  (3-1  =  84-70)
4.) Atlanta Falcons  (3-1  =  104-89)
3.) Green Bay Packers  (3-1  =  102-81)

The top of the NFC is packed, with the last undefeated team gone. The Falcons are 3-1, but definitely seem more tenuous then other teams given they were a technicality away from 2-2, and a Jordan Howard drop from 1-3. Then again, they dominated Green Bay, and probably beat Buffalo if Jones and Sanu don't get injured. Luckily the Jones injury doesn't seem too serious. The Panthers offense finally woke up, and if that game was a sign of things to come, the NFC should be scared. Finally, Green Bay keeps trucking on, with a chance to make a real statement in Dallas this next week.


Tier 11 - The Great AFC Race

2.) Pittsburgh Steelers  (3-1  =  90-59)
1.) Kansas City Chiefs  (4-0  =  122-77)

The Steelers are good enough that a 3-1 with start with a healthy point differential and a recent dominant win over their biggest rival on the road seems like somewhat of a disappointment. In a way, I understand it. The offense, particularly Roethlisberger, looks slightly off. The Chicago loss is still a bitter reminder of how the Steelers can play down to their competition 4-5 times a year. Still, the defense is among the league's best, and can make up for any slippage on offense. The Chiefs really showed a lot on Monday Night. That was the type of game they lost last year, when they dropped winnable home games to Tennessee and Tampa Bay. It didn't end up really costing them last year, but easily could've. The Chiefs will have to continue to prove it to get people to see them as a dominant team, but their whirlwind offense is still explosive, Alex Smith is still throwing deep more often and with more success than ever before, and the defense hasn't been exposed at all after the loss of Eric Berry.


Projecting the Playoff Field

AFC

1.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  13-3
2.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  13-3
3.) New England Patriots  =  12-4
4.) Tennessee Titans  =  10-6
5.) Denver Broncos  =  10-6
6.)  Buffalo Bills  =  10-6


NFC

1.) Green Bay Packers  =  13-3
2.) Carolina Panthers  =  12-4
3.) Seattle Seahawks  =  11-5
4.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  10-6
5.) Atlanta Falcons  =  11-5
6.) Los Angeles Rams  =  10-6


Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

Byes: Atlanta Falcons (3-1), Denver Broncos (3-1), New Orleans Saints (2-2), Washington Redskins (2-2)

Kind of a rough set of bye-week teams, as the Falcons, Broncos and Redskins are three of more exciting teams this year, and it would be interesting to see if the Saints defensive resurgence could have continued.


14.) San Francisco 49ers (0-4)  @  Indianapolis Colts (1-3)  (1:00 - FOX)
13.) New York Jets (2-2)  @  Cleveland Browns (0-4)  (1:00 - FOX)
12.) San Diego Chargers (0-4)  @  New York Giants (0-4)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "Nice to get the 0-4 teams grouped together" Sunday, as we get two of the 0-4's against each other, and the other two in what actually seem to be reasonably winnable games. The 49ers on recent play should beat Indianapolis. The Jets are maybe the least respectable 2-2 team ever. With the Chargers and Giants, this game is just depressing, given the QBs involved and the heights these two teams used to play around in.


11.) Tennessee Titans (2-2)  @  Miami Dolphins (1-2)  (1:00 - CBS)
10.) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "Honestly, screw the AFC South" Sunday, because honestly, fuck the AFC South. So in Week 1, the Jags kill Houston. Then in Week 3, Tennessee kills Jacksonville. And then in Week 4, Houston obliterates Tennessee. I know this has nothing to do with the games above, but who cares. I hate the AFC South.


9.) Minnesota Vikings (2-2)  @  Chicago Bears (1-3)  (MNF - ESPN)
8.) Baltimore Ravens (2-2)  @  Oakland Raiders (2-2)  (4:05 - CBS)

I call it "Nothing really to say about these games" Sunday and Monday, as I have just nothing to say about these games. I guess watching Trubisky's first game may be fun??


7.) Buffalo Bills (3-1)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (1-3)  (1:00 - CBS)
6.) Arizona Cardinals (2-2)  @  Philadelphia Eagles (3-1)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "Is the new guard better than the old?" Sunday, as we get two new-age top teams in Buffalo and Philadelphia get to play two of the old 2010-2016 (more actually 2013-2015) top dogs. The Bengals and Cardinals were my personal picks to rebound slightly and neither has. Instead teams like Buffalo and Philadelphia have taken their place. The Bills have a chance to really get off to a great start, and the Eagles really should win this game. But discounting the old guard is never a great idea.


5.) New England Patriots (2-2)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1)  (TNF - CBS)
4.) Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)  @  Houston Texans (2-2)  (SNF - NBC)

I call it "pretty nice night games in reality" Thursday and Sunday, as sometimes the primetime games just work out well. The Buccaneers get their chance to make a national statement, start out 3-1 and send New England to its worst start in the Brady/Belichick era (not counting 2000). And then the Chiefs get to play the new flavor of the week in DeShaun Watson. This game looks a lot better than it did even three weeks ago.


3.) Seattle Seahawks (2-2)  @  Los Angeles Rams (3-1)  (4:05 - CBS)
2.) Carolina Panthers (3-1)  @  Detroit Lions (3-1)  (1:00 - FOX)
1.) Green Bay Packers (3-1)  @  Dallas Cowboys (2-2)  (4:25 - FOX)

I call it "NFC Movement" Sunday, as we get three really nice intra-NFC games. We have two games where 3-1 teams play the two most pedigreed 2-2 teams in the conference, and then one game between two surprising 3-1 teams. I honestly don't know which is bests. It will be first interesting to see how the Seahawks play this version of the Rams given how much trouble they had with the Jeff Fisher led unit. It is also a great test for the suddenly incredible Rams offense. The Packers and Cowboys is a great, blue-blood matchup and it will be good to see if Dallas can get back on track - for the Packers they get a chance to get another huge NFC win (this and Seattle in Week 1). Finally, Carolina and Detroit may not be sexy, but two 3-1 teams against each other is always a treat in Week 5.

About Me

I am a man who will go by the moniker dmstorm22, or StormyD, but not really StormyD. I'll talk about sports, mainly football, sometimes TV, sometimes other random things, sometimes even bring out some lists (a lot, lot, lot of lists). Enjoy.