Tuesday, March 1, 2016

The World Overreacts to Steph Curry



On Saturday Night, we got our latest exhibit of what has become an accepted fact: Steph Curry has solved shooting. He is, by orders of magnitude at this point, the best shooter in the history of the NBA. No one has come close to shooting 3’s at his volume, and few that can even compare can shoot at his efficiency rate. The scatter plot of the best shooters basically looks like this:


Note, this is not the actual chart, but it would look somewhat similar. Curry has a very good percentage, but does that across an in-human amount of shots. The people that have a higher percentage probably shoot threes generally when they are open, off a pass, and from near the arc. Curry does this too, but also shoots ridiculous shots from 30+ feet, off the dribble, and while being closely guarded. If anyone else shoots this, they will a) most likely miss, and b) get chided for shooting a terrible, low percentage shot. With Curry there are no low-percentage shots.

Of course, Curry solving shooting has had some amazing effects for the game. The Warriors have, similarly, solved modern offense. They are an unbeatable machine. The league as a whole is shooting more threes, but that means they are doing what I described above: creating offense for threes, employing better ball movement, and eschewing long two’s to step a few feet back. The league increasing its utilization of threes is the real reason why the NBA should explore moving the line. Not because of Curry.

Sports should never change because one player is so much better at one thing than anyone else. Not that it hasn’t happened. Golf changed because Tiger Woods was just better and longer than anyone in 2000-01 – courses got bigger and tougher. There are more apt examples too:
  • The NHL putting in place the trapezoid to restrict the goalie’s ability to handle the puck was pretty much directly instituted as a rule because of Martin Brodeur’s ability to handle the puck and become essentially a half extra defenseman

This happened many years ago. There were a few other goalies cited (Marty Turco was another big one), but it really was aimed at Brodeur. The issue with the current situation is while the trapezoid took away from the value of Marty Brodeur – though ever so slightly, he was basically just as good after – it was a small percentage of plays and didn’t provide that much value. What Curry has mastered better than anyone ever is the single most valuable play in an NBA game.

The NBA is at an interesting time, and if hating on Curry gets people to peel the onion back on the overall issues with threes more, than I am fine with it. Just know that most of the suggestions, like moving the line back, will make Curry MORE valuable, as he is one of the few people who can consistently hit from 25-28 feet as well. Loads of players can come close to matching Curry’s effectiveness just beyond the line, but as we step further back Curry becomes even more of an outlier.

I don’t know what the solution is really. I have heard a couple things tossed around that I like:

  1. Get rid of the corner three by making the arc a real arc and removing the corner three all together
  2. Let NBA teams pick the distance at their home arena, assuming some basic ground rules are in play, like a set range of distances, and a normal arc or curve – no random squiggly line

Personally, I like suggestion #2 the most. I like when teams can personalize their stadium to create an inherent advantage. Obviously, baseball is the best at this as the stadiums are by design unique – and quirks and weather conditions play an active role in roster construction. In soccer there are a few different pitch size options. Hockey rinks can play around with temperatures and humidity to create a faster or slower surface. In basketball there is no real customization, and it would definitely be interesting to see how each team addresses the question of where to place the line.

Even #1 has its merits. The corner three, checking in at just 22 feet, is ridiculous. It is barely longer than a normal 2-point shot, it is the easiest for players to hit. There is no way it should be worth 50% more than a normal 2-pointer. I am in favor of making the arc a real parabola and essentially having it meet the sideline around level with the lower blocks, and for all intents and purposes making the corner three just a 2-point shot.

What this will really do is make the game more variable and differentiate teams further. Right now, basically every team is trying to recreate the Warriors – be able to go small and have 4-5 shooters on the court at any time (and conversely, 4-5 people who can guard opposing shooters). It makes sense, too, because of the mathematics of the game. Basically, a team has to hit ~35% from three to make it the same as shooting 50% from two. This is not a high bar anymore, which has forced all teams to basically try to do that. The game is exciting, no doubt, but lost in the three-and-D madness has been the depreciation of the post-game, the dunk and the physicality that was actually fun back in the day.


There is a happy medium somewhere, and it realistically has to come by altering the court. Players are not going to get any worse at shooting threes, if anything they will just continue to get better to the point that someone, someday, is going to match Stephen Curry’s exploits. The NBA has to do something before the league becomes essentially a glorified three-point-contest. If it is a small but loud negative reaction to Curry’s dominance that forces change, then so be it. 

Let’s just know that when the NBA takes the easy way out and just pushes the line back to 25 feet, Curry will still be awesome, will still lead the league in threes, the Warriors may still be the best team. But at least teams could then fight them on their own terms instead of having to play the way the Warriors do, but just without the best ever at doing it.

About Me

I am a man who will go by the moniker dmstorm22, or StormyD, but not really StormyD. I'll talk about sports, mainly football, sometimes TV, sometimes other random things, sometimes even bring out some lists (a lot, lot, lot of lists). Enjoy.