I am all in on these playoffs. Of course, part of that is having the Astros there, but the other part is just having a lot of new blood. Even the Cubs, who I still kind of dislike because mentally I feel like a fan of a team that is still in the NL Central, are exciting enough for me to get behind. But there's the Mets, and the Blue Jays and Royals, whose sheen hasn't really lost any of its luster over the past year. Baseball is at such a good place right now, and the postseason field this year shows it.
Quickly, before getting to that, here are my award picks:
NL Rookie of the Year: Kris Bryan, 3B, CHC - It's really pretty simple. There were some good candidates early, and a boat-load of other players who can be future all stars, but after Matt Duffy and Joc Pederson tailed off, it was always going to Bryant.
AL Rookie of the Year: Carlos Correa, SS, HOU - After seemingly having this award locked up for months, Francisco Lindor actually ended up with a higher WAR. Still, it wasn't by much and most of Lindor's value is driven by still unreliable defensive stats (more unreliable in that I don't trust their opinion of Correa). I also think Correa is a future MVP, while Lindor is a future all-star, and when close go with the guy who has the better trajectory going forward.
NL Cy Young: Zack Greinke, SP, LAD - This is so close between him, Arrieta and Kershaw. Clayton is still the best pitcher in baseball and the best bet going forward, and you can argue him getting to 300 Ks in this day-and-age is a better accomplishment than the ERAs that Arreita and Greinke put up, but I can't get past that 1.66. I also realize how amazing Arrieta was in the 2nd half, but Greinke was amazing all year long. He had a 1.10 ERA at the all-star break. He was just better for the entire season. It is so close and there is no wrong answer, but I think Greinke was slightly better.
AL Cy Young: Dallas Keuchel, SP, HOU - This is also close between him and Price. Their ERA and FIP are close to even. They pitched a similar amount of innings. Price had more strikeouts, but they had the same ERA. Keuchel gets my nod because he too was more consistent through the season, and also because by any stat he is at the top. He perfectly mixed a high strikeout, low walk season with continuing to prove that he has a repeatable ability to induce weak contact. He is not abnormally deflated by a low BABIP.
NL MVP: Bryce Harper, LF, WAS - I don't care that he made the playoffs. If anything, the best alternatives are one of the three pitchers up for Cy Young and not someone like McCutchen, or Cespedes (which is a ludicrous pick). Still, Harper was historically good for his age, and just historically good period. This was the best offensive season since probably prime Pujols.
AL MVP: Josh Donaldson, 3B, TOR - He slowed down a bit in September, while Trout picked it up, so now they're essentially even in WAR. In a weird reverse of the classic Trout / Cabrera debates, this time, Trout is the one who has most of his value tied to hitting and Donaldson is the one with an amazing defensive WAR. To me it is really close, basically a tie, and when tied, then you can look at something like who's team made the playoffs and all that other stuff.
Now, let's get to the picks
(A1) Kansas City Royals vs (AWC) Houston Astors
Royals Batting vs. Astros Pitching: I actually think this side matches up really nicely for Houston. The Royals lost to the Giants last year because they couldn't hit Madison Bumgarner, and while no one could last October, more than anyone they are powerless because that lineup is so lefty-leaning. Arguably three of their four top batters are left-handed, in Hosmer, Moustakas and Gordon. They still have Cain and Perez on the other side, but the power, the muscle of that lineup is lefty, and the Astros can toss two lefties. Now, Kazmir has been a mess recently, and Keuchel is only going once, but that is a good matchup. The Royals speed could be a factor, but I imagine Jason Castro, a good throwing arm, will start all the games for that reason. The bullpen for the Astros is a concern, but that may be just a case of having a bad month. They still ended up as a Top-5 AL unit. The Astros defense will also be key against a great contact team that struck out less than anyone - luckily for the Astros their defense is arguably the best in the AL.
Astros Batting vs. Royals Pitching
Much like the other matchup, the Royals are lucky that their pitching skews right-handed as the Astros bats skew right-handed as well. Few teams platoon as much, so they can force lefties into the lineup, but the constants are mostly right-handed. In many ways, the Astros are the anti-Royals in their batting approach. They don't make a lot of contact, strike out all the time, but they have great power, basically second to the Blue Jays in all the power / slugging stats. The Royals really need the real Johnny Cueto to show up for this series, but the power arms of Ventura and Volquez should do well against a free swinging club. As always, the Royals defense is great, but for the first time they're playing a team that runs more than them and the Astros running game will be a key. The
The Pick
I really like this series for the Astros. They ran into a team that plays a lot like itself in many ways with defense and speed, but they have a really good matchup against their hitters. Out of all the teams they could have played in the ALDS, the Royals are the one where they match up the best. Kansas City has been great all year long, but their starting pitching and bullpen is more questionable now than ever. This is the perfect time for the Astros, already playing with house money, to make another statement.
Astros in 4
(A2) Toronto Blue Jays vs. (A3) Texas Rangers
Blue Jays Batting vs. Rangers Pitching
Even more so than the Astros, the Blue Jays best hitters are right-handed. That power beginning of Tulo, Donaldson, Bautista and Encarnacion all have plus power (in some cases, plus-plus-plus power) and all are righty. So it hurts Texas that their best pitcher is left handed in Hamels. It also hurts that their bullpen is prone to giving up home runs. The Rangers defense is good, but against a team like Toronto that hits so few ground balls, that is lessened. The Blue Jays are such a balanced lineup with no real holes, and guys that are good enough to catch up to high heat from righties, that no pitching staff really lines up well.
Rangers Batting vs. Blue Jays Pitching
Even more incredible than the Blue Jays insane offense since the Tolu / Price deals, is their pitching. The Blue Jays have the guys who finished #1, #2 and #4 in ERA in the second half of the season in the AL. We all know about David Price, who as a lefty can counter the fact the Rangers have three of their four best hitters batting lefty (Fielder, Choo and Moreland), but both Marco Estrada and RA Dickey have had great second halves. Estrada is doing it with smoke and mirrors, but Dickey is moving that knuckleball close to how he did in his Cy Young season in 2012. The Rangers offense is well balanced, but their lefty-dominant approach hurts against Price who will start two games. The Rangers don't need to shut them down, just win a relative battle.
The Pick
This is probably the worst draw for Texas - in fairness, it would have been the worst draw for Houston as well. The Blue Jays have been the best team in baseball since August 1st, and they have not shown any signs of stopping. Having Price go twice, and having that lineup that matches up well against the Rangers top pitchers, they seem like a good, safe pick.
Rangers in 4
NL Coming Tomorrow
Quickly, before getting to that, here are my award picks:
NL Rookie of the Year: Kris Bryan, 3B, CHC - It's really pretty simple. There were some good candidates early, and a boat-load of other players who can be future all stars, but after Matt Duffy and Joc Pederson tailed off, it was always going to Bryant.
AL Rookie of the Year: Carlos Correa, SS, HOU - After seemingly having this award locked up for months, Francisco Lindor actually ended up with a higher WAR. Still, it wasn't by much and most of Lindor's value is driven by still unreliable defensive stats (more unreliable in that I don't trust their opinion of Correa). I also think Correa is a future MVP, while Lindor is a future all-star, and when close go with the guy who has the better trajectory going forward.
NL Cy Young: Zack Greinke, SP, LAD - This is so close between him, Arrieta and Kershaw. Clayton is still the best pitcher in baseball and the best bet going forward, and you can argue him getting to 300 Ks in this day-and-age is a better accomplishment than the ERAs that Arreita and Greinke put up, but I can't get past that 1.66. I also realize how amazing Arrieta was in the 2nd half, but Greinke was amazing all year long. He had a 1.10 ERA at the all-star break. He was just better for the entire season. It is so close and there is no wrong answer, but I think Greinke was slightly better.
AL Cy Young: Dallas Keuchel, SP, HOU - This is also close between him and Price. Their ERA and FIP are close to even. They pitched a similar amount of innings. Price had more strikeouts, but they had the same ERA. Keuchel gets my nod because he too was more consistent through the season, and also because by any stat he is at the top. He perfectly mixed a high strikeout, low walk season with continuing to prove that he has a repeatable ability to induce weak contact. He is not abnormally deflated by a low BABIP.
NL MVP: Bryce Harper, LF, WAS - I don't care that he made the playoffs. If anything, the best alternatives are one of the three pitchers up for Cy Young and not someone like McCutchen, or Cespedes (which is a ludicrous pick). Still, Harper was historically good for his age, and just historically good period. This was the best offensive season since probably prime Pujols.
AL MVP: Josh Donaldson, 3B, TOR - He slowed down a bit in September, while Trout picked it up, so now they're essentially even in WAR. In a weird reverse of the classic Trout / Cabrera debates, this time, Trout is the one who has most of his value tied to hitting and Donaldson is the one with an amazing defensive WAR. To me it is really close, basically a tie, and when tied, then you can look at something like who's team made the playoffs and all that other stuff.
Now, let's get to the picks
(A1) Kansas City Royals vs (AWC) Houston Astors
Royals Batting vs. Astros Pitching: I actually think this side matches up really nicely for Houston. The Royals lost to the Giants last year because they couldn't hit Madison Bumgarner, and while no one could last October, more than anyone they are powerless because that lineup is so lefty-leaning. Arguably three of their four top batters are left-handed, in Hosmer, Moustakas and Gordon. They still have Cain and Perez on the other side, but the power, the muscle of that lineup is lefty, and the Astros can toss two lefties. Now, Kazmir has been a mess recently, and Keuchel is only going once, but that is a good matchup. The Royals speed could be a factor, but I imagine Jason Castro, a good throwing arm, will start all the games for that reason. The bullpen for the Astros is a concern, but that may be just a case of having a bad month. They still ended up as a Top-5 AL unit. The Astros defense will also be key against a great contact team that struck out less than anyone - luckily for the Astros their defense is arguably the best in the AL.
Astros Batting vs. Royals Pitching
Much like the other matchup, the Royals are lucky that their pitching skews right-handed as the Astros bats skew right-handed as well. Few teams platoon as much, so they can force lefties into the lineup, but the constants are mostly right-handed. In many ways, the Astros are the anti-Royals in their batting approach. They don't make a lot of contact, strike out all the time, but they have great power, basically second to the Blue Jays in all the power / slugging stats. The Royals really need the real Johnny Cueto to show up for this series, but the power arms of Ventura and Volquez should do well against a free swinging club. As always, the Royals defense is great, but for the first time they're playing a team that runs more than them and the Astros running game will be a key. The
The Pick
I really like this series for the Astros. They ran into a team that plays a lot like itself in many ways with defense and speed, but they have a really good matchup against their hitters. Out of all the teams they could have played in the ALDS, the Royals are the one where they match up the best. Kansas City has been great all year long, but their starting pitching and bullpen is more questionable now than ever. This is the perfect time for the Astros, already playing with house money, to make another statement.
Astros in 4
(A2) Toronto Blue Jays vs. (A3) Texas Rangers
Blue Jays Batting vs. Rangers Pitching
Even more so than the Astros, the Blue Jays best hitters are right-handed. That power beginning of Tulo, Donaldson, Bautista and Encarnacion all have plus power (in some cases, plus-plus-plus power) and all are righty. So it hurts Texas that their best pitcher is left handed in Hamels. It also hurts that their bullpen is prone to giving up home runs. The Rangers defense is good, but against a team like Toronto that hits so few ground balls, that is lessened. The Blue Jays are such a balanced lineup with no real holes, and guys that are good enough to catch up to high heat from righties, that no pitching staff really lines up well.
Rangers Batting vs. Blue Jays Pitching
Even more incredible than the Blue Jays insane offense since the Tolu / Price deals, is their pitching. The Blue Jays have the guys who finished #1, #2 and #4 in ERA in the second half of the season in the AL. We all know about David Price, who as a lefty can counter the fact the Rangers have three of their four best hitters batting lefty (Fielder, Choo and Moreland), but both Marco Estrada and RA Dickey have had great second halves. Estrada is doing it with smoke and mirrors, but Dickey is moving that knuckleball close to how he did in his Cy Young season in 2012. The Rangers offense is well balanced, but their lefty-dominant approach hurts against Price who will start two games. The Rangers don't need to shut them down, just win a relative battle.
The Pick
This is probably the worst draw for Texas - in fairness, it would have been the worst draw for Houston as well. The Blue Jays have been the best team in baseball since August 1st, and they have not shown any signs of stopping. Having Price go twice, and having that lineup that matches up well against the Rangers top pitchers, they seem like a good, safe pick.
Rangers in 4
NL Coming Tomorrow
