Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots (NE -7)
In Week 1, really only the professionals win money (then again, that is not that different than any other week). Because of that, I'm only going to bet small amounts in real life, and even here I'm not going to put too much time into any of these. In this case, already the defending Champion has an advantage (they've won all but one season opener); and the Patriots have always had an advantage against the Steelers when the Steelers had a good defense. I'm not super high on either team, and I don't think this game will really teach us about either team.
Steelers 20 Patriots 34 (NE -7)
New York Jets @ Cleveland Browns (NYJ -3.5)
There are seven games at 1:00, and all but one of them has the road team as favorite (the other... a pick). Don't know if the NFL planned it that way, but we may end with a lot of disappointed home fanbases. This game is interesting. Neither team has a great QB, and both are built in similar ways. That said, the Jets are just far more talented. If their run defense holds up with Richardson out, they should dominate the Browns offense. I think the Jets are just better anyway, and Cleveland isn't really a place known for its home field advantage.
Jets 23 Browns 13 (NYJ -3.5)
[CORRECTION: I DID NOT REALIZE THIS WAS A HOME GAME FOR THE JETS. I THOUGHT THE BROWNS ALWAYS OPENED AT HOME, BUT APPARENTLY THAT IS NO LONGER A THING. THAT SAID, I LIKE THE JETS EVEN MORE NOW]
Carolina Panthers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (CAR -3)
I hate having this many road favorites, and this many that are low lines to make it enticing to take the favorite. You just know this many road favorites cannot all possibly cover. The Jaguars are a trendy upset pick here, but I really don't see it. Again, there is just a huge matchup advantage for the Panthers defense against the Jaguars offense. Kuechly, Thomas and Co. should just swallow the Jaguars passive offense. The other side should also be a tight affair, but I trust Cam to build 20 points out of magic more than I do Blake Bortles.
Panthers 20 Jaguars 10 (CAR -3)
Miami Dolphins @ Washington Redskins (MIA -4)
This is another reason I don't bet big in Week 1; this is a line that I really like the Redskins, but what does that mean exactly? I am really willing to put money on Kirk Cousins against potentially a great defense? Well, at this point that is still a potential - and potential is built into the line. The Dolphins may be a very good team and the Redskins are not a good team, but in Week 1 weird things happen. I can see the game being close, and mainly because I am opposed to picking ALL the road favorites, I will take the Redskins to cover in a close loss.
Dolphins 24 Redskins 21 (WAS +4)
Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills (IND -3)
I feel like this line is trying to tell people that Tyrod Taylor maybe good. What I do know, though, is the Colts defense is good against marginal offenses (which Buffalo's likely is). They play awfully against good offenses - even beyond their issues with New England, but they can dominate average to mediocre offenses. The Colts offense will have a hard time blocking the Bills, but the strength of their o-line is the interior, and they have enough WRs to challenge the depth of the Bills secondary. The line is low that you are more or less picking a Colts win, which I will do.
Colts 27 Bills 17 (IND -3)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans (PK)
Really tough game to pick; hence the pick 'em line, I guess. The Texans have looked good in preseason and are getting Clowney back, if in limited form. Then again, the Texans offense is relying on Brian Hoyer. The Chiefs defense will not have Sean Smith (hello Mr. Hopkins!) but may have Dontari Poe. I think the teams are about equal overall, and injuries/suspensions point this towards Houston for me.
Chiefs 16 Texans 20 (HOU PK)
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (GB -7)
This game has not been close in recent years. Take away the game Aaron Rodgers got hurt in (the Bears won 27-20), the Packers have won the last 9, and seven of those wins were by more than seven points. The Bears are probably worse today than they were at any point in those last nine meetings. I don't get this line, which concerns me. Maybe some odd belief in John Fox and Vic Fangio turning a defense that was bad in a 4-3 to a reasonable unit as a 3-4. Doesn't seem all that plausible. The Packers just own this matchup. I fear for the life of American's with their eventual Thanksgiving Night beatdown too.
Packers 31 Bears 20 (GB -7)
Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams (SEA -4.5)
The most interesting unit vs. unit matchup of the whole week to me will be the Rams D-Line vs. the Seahawks O-Line. Despite already not being that great, they shipped off Max Unger and let James Carpenter go. Now they face the scariest front in recent memory. That alone could shift the score in this game. Of course, the Seahawks defense themselves are quite good and may shut down the Rams, but I have slightly higher expectations for Nick Foles than most. This line seems high, and this is my overall upset special - then again I've lost a lot believing in Jeff Fisher's Rams.
Seahawks 17 Rams 20 (STL +4.5)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Oakland Raiders (CIN -3)
Week 1 may have more late-window games than any other week, as seen by the two games in Week 2. This starts us off with a game that could signal two teams heading in opposite directions. Already, the line is lower than you would think from a team coming off four straight playoff appearances against a team that is named the Raiders. Oakland signed Aldon Smith right before this game, and while it is not confirmed that he will play, he could make a difference. The Raiders are in good position to pull off an upset here, the key will having anyone to cover AJ Green. What helps the Raiders is the Bengals total lack of pass rush. I may really regret this, but I think the Raiders will squeak one out.
Bengals 20 Raiders 23 (OAK +3)
Tennessee Titans @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB -3)
The game of the two rookie QBs. A really interesting matchup of two teams that have a few similarities, including trying to force players on defense into specific schemes that may not match their talents, and weapons that may not get with their QBs strengths. Of course, both of these two teams were 2-14 last year, but the Buccaneers were closer to being respectable. I really have no idea about this game as it depends so much on two QBs who have never played a competitive game, but I think the Winston side wins the first matchup.
Titans 16 Buccaneers 21 (TB -3)
New Orleans Saints @ Arizona Cardinals (ARZ -2.5)
Another low line - it is like Vegas wants to win money! I'm surprised the Cardinals are favored, given the Saints long time status as a public team. It makes a lot of sense, though. The Cardinals are an awful matchup for Saints. The Saints can't really rush the passer, which is the Cardinals weakness on offense. With Carson Palmer back the offense may be a little rejuvenated early in the season as well. The Cardinals defensive losses are off-set by the Saints personnel losses on offense. The Cardinals always struggled against TEs, so the Saints trading Graham hurts them here. The low line is just screaming a Saints upset, but I think the Cardinals cover, if ever so slightly.
Saints 24 Cardinals 27 (ARZ -2.5)
Detroit Lions @ San Diego Chargers (SD -3)
I don't know why, but I kind of like the Lions here. I think they found a way of playing on defense last year that should retain some of its value even with Suh in another place. I like the matchup of Haloti Ngata against the Chargers weak interior line. On the other side, I'm not really sure who is covering Calvin or Golden Tate. The Lions are definitely a hard team to trust, but I like their matchup here, especially against a Chargers team without Gates. The Chargers like to establish some run game, but that may be difficult against a top rush defense as well.
Lions 24 Chargers 20 (DET +3)
Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos (DEN -5)
I'm surprised this line is so high as the Ravens are a trendy preseason Super Bowl pick, and the Broncos are seen as the opposite. I would not bet on this game if I had unlimited funds as I really don't know what to expect from the Broncos offense. I believe they'll be good, but even if the Broncos offense is fine, the Ravens defense poses challenges. This line is about right even if both teams were at their natural good state. The Broncos have been great at home in recent years, and both Kubiak in Houston, and Manning in his whole career, have been good against the Ravens defense. What I really like though is the Broncos defense against the Ravens. They've always been good against the run, and their secondary should win the matchups against the Ravens receivers. I really hope the Phillips lets Chris Harris, who is better than Talib, take Smith, but even if he doesn't the Ravens have the edge in that matchup.
Ravens 17 Broncos 26 (DEN -5)
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (DAL -6)
I'm really surprised this line is so low - in fact surprised and concerned enough I have a feeling Vegas knows something here. It seems so easy right. The Giants defense is missing a ton of pieces and wasn't all that great anyway. The Giants offense is good, but trying to beat the Cowboys in a shootout is likely not a good plan either. It is really hard to see the avenue for the Giants to win, or even cover, here unless it is a back-door variety. But I keep getting caught up with that line. What is the thought process here? This is why betting is hard. I'll take the better team at this point, but I have serious concerns about what is going on here.
Giants 21 Cowboys 30 (DAL -6)
Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons (PHI -3)
The world seems to have gone full circle on the Eagles. First, Chip was a genius. Then he had an aimless, hard to explain offseason and suddenly there were thinkpieces of him running back to college. Now, the Eagles seem like a trendy statement Super Bowl pick. I have always had the belief that never buy into the preseason. What strikes me as really strange is the Falcons are a trendy pick to win their division, and they're getting really no love here. I actually like the Falcons. First games with new coaches generally have a motivational boost tied to them (see: Chip Kelly's first game with the Eagles), and the line is great value.
Eagles 24 Falcons 31 (ATL +3)
Minnesota Vikings @ San Francisco 49ers (MIN -3)
For the first time since 2011, the Chargers are not involved in the late game. Instead, the 49ers are. Of course, this is also the first time since 2011 the 49ers are not in the National Doubleheader game - which is a great sign of how far they've fallen so quickly. This is also a weird line given a lot of the love for the Vikings is dependent on potential, whether it be the potential of Bridgewater or the young defensive players improving. The 49ers have been told all offseason how much of a disaster they are, so I can see them come out fired up, but the talent is just not there. We have two road favorites on MNF to close the weekend. I think they go 1-1, so to split the difference, I'll take the home team to cover the low number each time and also hope to go 1-1.
Vikings 17 49ers 21 (SF +3)
Enjoy the games; seriously just do. Just try to forget this infamous, unforgettable (in the worst way possible) offseason.
In Week 1, really only the professionals win money (then again, that is not that different than any other week). Because of that, I'm only going to bet small amounts in real life, and even here I'm not going to put too much time into any of these. In this case, already the defending Champion has an advantage (they've won all but one season opener); and the Patriots have always had an advantage against the Steelers when the Steelers had a good defense. I'm not super high on either team, and I don't think this game will really teach us about either team.
Steelers 20 Patriots 34 (NE -7)
New York Jets @ Cleveland Browns (NYJ -3.5)
There are seven games at 1:00, and all but one of them has the road team as favorite (the other... a pick). Don't know if the NFL planned it that way, but we may end with a lot of disappointed home fanbases. This game is interesting. Neither team has a great QB, and both are built in similar ways. That said, the Jets are just far more talented. If their run defense holds up with Richardson out, they should dominate the Browns offense. I think the Jets are just better anyway, and Cleveland isn't really a place known for its home field advantage.
Jets 23 Browns 13 (NYJ -3.5)
[CORRECTION: I DID NOT REALIZE THIS WAS A HOME GAME FOR THE JETS. I THOUGHT THE BROWNS ALWAYS OPENED AT HOME, BUT APPARENTLY THAT IS NO LONGER A THING. THAT SAID, I LIKE THE JETS EVEN MORE NOW]
Carolina Panthers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (CAR -3)
I hate having this many road favorites, and this many that are low lines to make it enticing to take the favorite. You just know this many road favorites cannot all possibly cover. The Jaguars are a trendy upset pick here, but I really don't see it. Again, there is just a huge matchup advantage for the Panthers defense against the Jaguars offense. Kuechly, Thomas and Co. should just swallow the Jaguars passive offense. The other side should also be a tight affair, but I trust Cam to build 20 points out of magic more than I do Blake Bortles.
Panthers 20 Jaguars 10 (CAR -3)
Miami Dolphins @ Washington Redskins (MIA -4)
This is another reason I don't bet big in Week 1; this is a line that I really like the Redskins, but what does that mean exactly? I am really willing to put money on Kirk Cousins against potentially a great defense? Well, at this point that is still a potential - and potential is built into the line. The Dolphins may be a very good team and the Redskins are not a good team, but in Week 1 weird things happen. I can see the game being close, and mainly because I am opposed to picking ALL the road favorites, I will take the Redskins to cover in a close loss.
Dolphins 24 Redskins 21 (WAS +4)
Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills (IND -3)
I feel like this line is trying to tell people that Tyrod Taylor maybe good. What I do know, though, is the Colts defense is good against marginal offenses (which Buffalo's likely is). They play awfully against good offenses - even beyond their issues with New England, but they can dominate average to mediocre offenses. The Colts offense will have a hard time blocking the Bills, but the strength of their o-line is the interior, and they have enough WRs to challenge the depth of the Bills secondary. The line is low that you are more or less picking a Colts win, which I will do.
Colts 27 Bills 17 (IND -3)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans (PK)
Really tough game to pick; hence the pick 'em line, I guess. The Texans have looked good in preseason and are getting Clowney back, if in limited form. Then again, the Texans offense is relying on Brian Hoyer. The Chiefs defense will not have Sean Smith (hello Mr. Hopkins!) but may have Dontari Poe. I think the teams are about equal overall, and injuries/suspensions point this towards Houston for me.
Chiefs 16 Texans 20 (HOU PK)
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (GB -7)
This game has not been close in recent years. Take away the game Aaron Rodgers got hurt in (the Bears won 27-20), the Packers have won the last 9, and seven of those wins were by more than seven points. The Bears are probably worse today than they were at any point in those last nine meetings. I don't get this line, which concerns me. Maybe some odd belief in John Fox and Vic Fangio turning a defense that was bad in a 4-3 to a reasonable unit as a 3-4. Doesn't seem all that plausible. The Packers just own this matchup. I fear for the life of American's with their eventual Thanksgiving Night beatdown too.
Packers 31 Bears 20 (GB -7)
Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams (SEA -4.5)
The most interesting unit vs. unit matchup of the whole week to me will be the Rams D-Line vs. the Seahawks O-Line. Despite already not being that great, they shipped off Max Unger and let James Carpenter go. Now they face the scariest front in recent memory. That alone could shift the score in this game. Of course, the Seahawks defense themselves are quite good and may shut down the Rams, but I have slightly higher expectations for Nick Foles than most. This line seems high, and this is my overall upset special - then again I've lost a lot believing in Jeff Fisher's Rams.
Seahawks 17 Rams 20 (STL +4.5)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Oakland Raiders (CIN -3)
Week 1 may have more late-window games than any other week, as seen by the two games in Week 2. This starts us off with a game that could signal two teams heading in opposite directions. Already, the line is lower than you would think from a team coming off four straight playoff appearances against a team that is named the Raiders. Oakland signed Aldon Smith right before this game, and while it is not confirmed that he will play, he could make a difference. The Raiders are in good position to pull off an upset here, the key will having anyone to cover AJ Green. What helps the Raiders is the Bengals total lack of pass rush. I may really regret this, but I think the Raiders will squeak one out.
Bengals 20 Raiders 23 (OAK +3)
Tennessee Titans @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB -3)
The game of the two rookie QBs. A really interesting matchup of two teams that have a few similarities, including trying to force players on defense into specific schemes that may not match their talents, and weapons that may not get with their QBs strengths. Of course, both of these two teams were 2-14 last year, but the Buccaneers were closer to being respectable. I really have no idea about this game as it depends so much on two QBs who have never played a competitive game, but I think the Winston side wins the first matchup.
Titans 16 Buccaneers 21 (TB -3)
New Orleans Saints @ Arizona Cardinals (ARZ -2.5)
Another low line - it is like Vegas wants to win money! I'm surprised the Cardinals are favored, given the Saints long time status as a public team. It makes a lot of sense, though. The Cardinals are an awful matchup for Saints. The Saints can't really rush the passer, which is the Cardinals weakness on offense. With Carson Palmer back the offense may be a little rejuvenated early in the season as well. The Cardinals defensive losses are off-set by the Saints personnel losses on offense. The Cardinals always struggled against TEs, so the Saints trading Graham hurts them here. The low line is just screaming a Saints upset, but I think the Cardinals cover, if ever so slightly.
Saints 24 Cardinals 27 (ARZ -2.5)
Detroit Lions @ San Diego Chargers (SD -3)
I don't know why, but I kind of like the Lions here. I think they found a way of playing on defense last year that should retain some of its value even with Suh in another place. I like the matchup of Haloti Ngata against the Chargers weak interior line. On the other side, I'm not really sure who is covering Calvin or Golden Tate. The Lions are definitely a hard team to trust, but I like their matchup here, especially against a Chargers team without Gates. The Chargers like to establish some run game, but that may be difficult against a top rush defense as well.
Lions 24 Chargers 20 (DET +3)
Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos (DEN -5)
I'm surprised this line is so high as the Ravens are a trendy preseason Super Bowl pick, and the Broncos are seen as the opposite. I would not bet on this game if I had unlimited funds as I really don't know what to expect from the Broncos offense. I believe they'll be good, but even if the Broncos offense is fine, the Ravens defense poses challenges. This line is about right even if both teams were at their natural good state. The Broncos have been great at home in recent years, and both Kubiak in Houston, and Manning in his whole career, have been good against the Ravens defense. What I really like though is the Broncos defense against the Ravens. They've always been good against the run, and their secondary should win the matchups against the Ravens receivers. I really hope the Phillips lets Chris Harris, who is better than Talib, take Smith, but even if he doesn't the Ravens have the edge in that matchup.
Ravens 17 Broncos 26 (DEN -5)
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (DAL -6)
I'm really surprised this line is so low - in fact surprised and concerned enough I have a feeling Vegas knows something here. It seems so easy right. The Giants defense is missing a ton of pieces and wasn't all that great anyway. The Giants offense is good, but trying to beat the Cowboys in a shootout is likely not a good plan either. It is really hard to see the avenue for the Giants to win, or even cover, here unless it is a back-door variety. But I keep getting caught up with that line. What is the thought process here? This is why betting is hard. I'll take the better team at this point, but I have serious concerns about what is going on here.
Giants 21 Cowboys 30 (DAL -6)
Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons (PHI -3)
The world seems to have gone full circle on the Eagles. First, Chip was a genius. Then he had an aimless, hard to explain offseason and suddenly there were thinkpieces of him running back to college. Now, the Eagles seem like a trendy statement Super Bowl pick. I have always had the belief that never buy into the preseason. What strikes me as really strange is the Falcons are a trendy pick to win their division, and they're getting really no love here. I actually like the Falcons. First games with new coaches generally have a motivational boost tied to them (see: Chip Kelly's first game with the Eagles), and the line is great value.
Eagles 24 Falcons 31 (ATL +3)
Minnesota Vikings @ San Francisco 49ers (MIN -3)
For the first time since 2011, the Chargers are not involved in the late game. Instead, the 49ers are. Of course, this is also the first time since 2011 the 49ers are not in the National Doubleheader game - which is a great sign of how far they've fallen so quickly. This is also a weird line given a lot of the love for the Vikings is dependent on potential, whether it be the potential of Bridgewater or the young defensive players improving. The 49ers have been told all offseason how much of a disaster they are, so I can see them come out fired up, but the talent is just not there. We have two road favorites on MNF to close the weekend. I think they go 1-1, so to split the difference, I'll take the home team to cover the low number each time and also hope to go 1-1.
Vikings 17 49ers 21 (SF +3)
Enjoy the games; seriously just do. Just try to forget this infamous, unforgettable (in the worst way possible) offseason.
