AFC East
1.) New England = 10-6 (4)
Who's In: (TE) Scott Chandler, (DE) Jabaal Sheard, (CB) Robert McClain, (CB) Bradley Fletcher, (RB) Travaris Cadet
Who's Out: (CB) Darrelle Revis, (CB) Brandon Browner, (CB) Kyle Arrington, (DT) Vince Wilfork, (RB) Shane Vereen, (RB) Stevan Ridley, (LB) Akeem Ayers
That's a lot of churn for our defending champs, who will now have the services of Tom Brady for all 16 games; to me too much churn to really think they're going to be as good as last year. After years of not being able to play press man, they were able to do so much defensively last year. But all of that is gone now. Brady is still very good, and Gronk is still a monster, but their WRs still rely on slot guys, and the defense lost its best feature. I've been wrong a lot about the Patriots over the years, but I do think there will be some slippage.
2.) Miami = 10-6 (6)
Who's In: (DT) Ndamukong Suh, (WR) Kenny Stills, (WR) Greg Jennings, (TE) Jordan Cameron, (C) JD Walton, (DT) CJ Mosely (CB) Brice McCain
Who's Out: (WR) Mike Wallace, (RB) Knowshon Moreno, (WR) Brian Hartline, (TE) Charles Clay, (G) Daryn Colledge, (C) Samson Satele, (DT) Randy Starks, (DT) Jared Odrick, (LB) Danell Ellerbe, (LB) Phillip Wheeler, (CB) Cortland Finnegan
The Dolphins had one of the most active offseasons in recent memory, especially in the amount of depth they lost in the 'out' area, and the amount of high-end talent they got in the 'in' area. Picking up Ndamukong Suh changes your defense - a defense that was already in that #12-#8 range last year. Suh can help fix their run defense almost by itself. They've lost a lot of their other pieces in the front 7 and that LB core is downright pathetic, but Suh is a defense-maker. On the other side, if Tannehill can't lead them to 10 wins this year, and a Top-12 offense, they should probably cut bait. There are few weaknesses, and the Landry / Stills / Jennings trio is quite nice. They should be good, and for Joe Philbin's employment prospects, they have to be.
3.) Buffalo = 8-8
Who's In: (QB) Tyrod Taylor, (RB) LeSean McCoy, (WR) Percy Harvin, (TE) Charles Clay, (G) Richie Incognito
Who's Out: (RB) CJ Spiller, (TE) Scott Chandler, (G) Erik Pears, (LB) Kiko Alonso, (LB) Brandon Spikes, (S) Da'Norris Searcy
I don't actually think the Bills are going to be worse, and it wouldn't shock me if they make the playoffs much like the '09 Jets did, but how much better can their defense be? Rex Ryan is a master, but let's not act like Gregg Williams (2013) and Jim Schwartz (2014) did a bad job of coaching the hell out of that defense - especially the 2014 version that was arguably the best defense in the AFC. On the offense side, it really rests on Tyrod Taylor working behind a make-shift line; a combination that rarely works. At least the '09 Jets could lean on a great o-line with a prime D'Brickshaw and Mangold and a top run game, the '15 Bills? Not so much.
4.) New York = 6-10
Who's In: (QB) Ryan Fitzpatrick, (WR) Brandon Marshall, (T) James Brewer, (G) James Carpenter, (DT) Stephen Bowen, (DT) Kevin Vickerson, (LB) Erin Henderson, (CB) Darrelle Revis, (CB) Antonio Cromartie, (CB) Buster Skrine, (S) Marcus Gilchrist
Who's Out: (QB) Michael Vick, (WR) Percy Harvin, (CB) Kyle Wilson, (S) Dawan Landry
The Jets used that ample cap space to go on an all-time spending spree. I know Rex Ryan wishes the Jets were as active last offseason when they had similar cap-room. The big coup is getting Revis back, but also Cromartie and Skrine creating a top-3 at corner, the Jets weakest position last year. There a couple concerns on that defense, still without an end-rusher for the nth-straight year. Also, that offense still isn't fixed with an average run game and Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing passes. No matter how good Fitz may be he is still Ryan Fitzpatrick.
AFC North
1.) Baltimore = 12-4 (2)
Who's In: (CB) Kyle Arrington, (S) Kendrick Lewis
Who's Out: (WR) Torrey Smith, (TE) Owen Daniels, (DT) Haloti Ngata, (DE) Purnell McPhee, (CB) Antoine Cason, (S) Darian Stewart
The Ravens, like they have so often during the Ozzie-Newsome led era, started filling holes a year or two in advance. Recent draft picks are ready to step into the place of Haloti Ngata and Purnell McPhee (Brandon Williams and Timmy Jernigan). The place where they may suffer (relative term) is on offense trying to replace Torrey Smith and Owen Daniels, but with the combination of two rookies (Brashad Perriman, Maxx Williams) and the offensive mind of Marc Trestman, they can probably replace most of that value. Overall, this could be the best defense in the AFC, and will likely be at worst Top-3; combine that with solid offense (the AFC's best o-line), great defense and good Special Teams like always, they should be really good like always.
2.) Pittsburgh = 10-6
Who's In: (RB) DeAngelo Williams
Who's Out: (WR) Lance Moore, (DT) Brett Keisel, (DE) Jason Worilds, (CB) Ike Taylor, (CB) Brice McCain, (S) Troy Polamalu
Much like the Ravens, the Steelers didn't do much in terms of getting new players. Their problem, though, is that they didn't more because they couldn't. The Steelers had a really nice season in 2014 mainly because it all came together on offense. That is already not the case with Maurkice Pouncey on IR-designated to return. The offense should still be really good, but I can't see them being as good as last year. The defense shouldn't be as bad, I guess, but that's more hope than anything. The Steelers are good, they could easily be a playoff team, but I think they'll fall just out.
3.) Cincinnati = 7-9
Who's In: (DE) Michael Johnson, (LB) AJ Hawk
Who's Out: (TE) Jermaine Gresham, (T) Marshall Newhouse, (C) Mike Pollak, (CB) Terence Newman, (S) Taylor Mays
One of these years, the Bengals are going to fall a bit. In a way, I don't know what I want from the Bengals. If they go 10-6 again and lose another playoff game, it is hard to say that is unsuccessful - they are still a team that has been consistently competitive. But that's more running in place. If the bad parts of these teams show up, they could finish around .500 or below. The defense still does not have pass rushers, and the secondary lost a few pieces. They need 2013 Geno Atkins to show up again. The offense is still good, but they'll too need to play their best level to approach last year's 10-5-1 record. I do think this is the last stand for Marvin Lewis. It is easy to say it is about time for Marvin, but it is also the sad end for a guy who kept a moribund franchise competitive for a long time.
4.) Cleveland = 2-14
Who's In: (QB) Josh McCown, (WR) Dwayne Bowe, (WR) Brian Hartline, (DT) Randy Starks, (CB) Tramon Williams
Who's Out: (QB) Brian Hoyer, (WR) Miles Austin, (TE) Jordan Cameron, (NT) Ahtyba Rubin, (DE) Jabaal Sheard, (CB) Buster Skrine
You learn something quickly when doing this exercise and trying to get the W-L record of all teams add up to 256-256: some teams have to do really bad. You should never predict a team to go 2-14; but then again you have to make the records add up (most projection systems will never have a team over 12-4 either). The Browns are a bad team, their offseason makes them a little worse losing some of their defensive depth. They still are without Josh Gordon, and I don't think replacing Brian Hoyer is any improvement when the replacement is Josh McCown. It is sad to say that the Browns are just in a never-ending cycle. The only thing that will change that is getting a franchise QB - not sure if any of those are in the 2016 draft or not.
AFC South
1.) Indianapolis = 12-4 (3)
Who's In: (RB) Frank Gore, (WR) Andre Johnson, (G) Todd Herremans, (DT) Kendall Langford, (DE) Trent Cole, (S) Dwight Lowery
Who's Out: (RB) Ahmad Bradshaw, (RB) Trent Richardson, (WR) Reggie Wayne, (WR) Hakeem Nicks, (DT) Corey Redding, (LB) Shaun Phillips, (DE) Ricky Jean-Francois, (S) LaRon Landry
In the last year before people start getting paid, Ryan Grigson did what he is wont to do and signed a lot of guys. However, unlike in past year's where he signed average players to long deals, now he signed good, if aging, players to short deals. Personally, I think all these deals made sense. Gore should do well in the running game - actually everyone does in the Colts running game aside from Trent. Johnson is a better replacement for Wayne. Cole and Langford are better than the people they are replacing. We can overstate their issues because what New England does to them no one else seems to. They are a top team, with a tough schedule, but with Andrew Luck all is possible. What I will say, is that despite all the talk about 'building a monster' and being a different type of team, the Colts just built the same version of the Manning-era team.
2.) Houston = 7-9
Who's In: (QB) Ryan Fitzpatrick, (RB) Chris Polk, (WR) Cecil Shorts, (DT) Vince Wilfork, (S) Rahim Moore, (S) Stevie Brown
Who's Out: (QB) Ryan Fitzpatrick, (WR) Andre Johnson, (C) Chris Myers, (DE) Brooks Reed, (S) Daniel Manning
The Texans were a surprising 9-7 last year, capitalizing on an easy schedule. This year is not as forgiving. I actually think Hoyer is a downgrade from Fitzpatrick. I also think losing Andrew Johnson is more meaningful than most. They still have JJ Watt, which is a defense all its own, but I do worry about the rest of that defense, especially them all staying healthy. The offense has a few playmakers, but I worry about their o-line and not having Arian Foster, who does so much for them is an issue. 7-9 isn't a bad season, and I hope Texans fans understand that if it does happen. By record, it would be a step down but it isn't really.
3.) Tennessee = 6-10
Who's In: (WR) Harry Douglas, (T) Byron Bell, (LB) Brian Orakpo, (S) Da'Norris Searcy
Who's Out: (QB) Jake Locker, (WR) Nate Washington, (T) Michael Roos, (T) Michael Oher, (CB) Perrish Cox, (S) Bernard Pollard, (S) George Wilson
The Titans pick here is basically two things: I think Marcus Mariota will have a good rookie season, and I think the defense will take another step with Orakpo adding to a pass rush that should improve. The Titans, as they've been forever, especially since Fisher left, are exceedingly boring and nameless, but with Mariota that goes away. The Titans are slightly more interesting, and with Delanie Walker, Justin Hunter and Kendall Wright, there are some interesting options for him as well. The Titans are a few years away, but this could be the beginning.
4.) Jacksonville = 4-12
Who's In: (TE) Julius Thomas, (T) Jeremy Parnell, (C) Stefan Wisniewski, (DT) Jared Odrick, (CB) Davon House, (S) Sergio Brown
Who's Out: (DT) Red Bryant, (LB) Geno Hayes, (CB) Alan Ball
The Jaguars season has promise, but there's a dark glow after two of their biggest offseason moves had their season stunted. First was the more crushing one, with Dante Fowler Jr. tearing his ACL in mini-camp. The second was Julius Thomas now missing the first few games. They shored up the line a bit which should help Bortles, but losing Thomas for the beginning, and basically giving up on Justin Blackmon will not help. On defense they have an underrated pass rush, but not a great defense in the other levels. If Bortles is good they'll be fine long term, but the team hasn't really made it easy for him through two years.
AFC West
1.) Denver = 12-4 (1)
Who's In: (TE) Owen Daniels, (DT) Antonio Smith, (DT) Vance Walker, (G) Shelley Smith, (TE) James Casey
Who's Out: (TE) Julius Thomas, (G) Orlando Franklin, (DT) Terrance Knighton, (S) Rahim Moore, (WR) Wes WeLker
There's certainly more questions around Denver this year than the last couple. Forget Manning, but will the young o-line come together? Will that offense mesh with what Peyton does? Personally, I think Manning and Kubiak are good enough to mesh, and if they both bring what they've done before (Manning turn any collection of 5 guys into a competent pass blocking line and Kubiak doing the same with run blocking). What really helps the Broncos though is that defense could be really, really good. Wade Phillips has already made magic with Ware, and now he gets Von Miller as his new play-thing. I like the Antonio Smith signing as well. The secondary is still good. The defense can carry them through a rough spot if the offense takes some time to come together. To me, they remain the team to beat in the AFC West.
2.) San Diego = 10-6 (5)
Who's In: (WR) Stevie Johnson, (T) Joseph Barksdale, (G) Orlando Franklin, (CB) Jimmy Wilson
Who's Out: (WR) Eddie Royal, (C) Nick Hardwick, (LB) Dwight Freeney, (RB) Ryan Mathews, (CB) Shareece Wright, (S) Marcus Gilchrist
The Chargers have been between 7-9 and 9-7 for the past four years, and I think they break out of that malaise, just barely, in the good direction. They still employ Philip Rivers, who when he is on is a Top-5 QB in the NFL (as recently as 2013, he was probably the 2nd best QB in the NFL for a season). The o-line is still in flux (personally think Orlando Franklin is overrated), and a receiving core that needs a comeback year from Keenan Allen combine for an offense that looks better on paper, but their defense could make up for some of that. The Chargers are also a well coached team that only occasionally fails to show up, hence the good but not great record.
3.) Kansas City = 8-8
Who's In: (WR) Jeremy Maclin, (G) Ben Grubbs, (LB) Joe Mays, (S) Tyvon Branch
Who's Out: (WR) Dwayne Bowe, (C) Rodney Hudson, (DT) Vance Walker, (TE) Anthony Fasano
The Chiefs were probably the best non-playoff team last year - beating both the Super Bowl participants and having the Pythagorean record of an 11-5 team. That said, I think they'll take a slight step back. The defense doesn't have the depth of personnel they once did (I don't like this Poe injury given how critical he was previously), and their o-line has bled personnel. I still like some of their pieces, and think Jeremy Maclin will help boost that awful receiving core, but you can only do so much in a tough division, with a tough schedule.
4.) Oakland = 5-11
Who's In: (WR) Michael Crabtree, (C) Ray Hudson, (DT) Dan Williams, (LB) Malcolm Smith, (S) Nate Allen, (RB) Roy Helu
Who's Out: (RB) Darren McFadden, (WR) James Jones, (G) Kevin Booth, (C) Stefan Wisniewski, (DT) Antonio Smith, (LB) LaMarr Woodley, (CB) Tarrell Brown, (CB) Carlos Rogers, (S) Tyvon Branch
How does a team with so much cap room lose so many players? Anyway, I see a slight improvement for the Raiders because of their young guys starting to perform. I think Derek Carr can approach average and I really like what I've seen from Amari Cooper. I completely forget they signed Michael Crabtree, and there are some intriguing weapons here. The defense will go as far as their old veterans will take them, not a bad approach to take short-term deals on older players while they draft the next wave. Khalil Mack is the current wave already, a guy who could have a Von Miller type season. The future is brighter than what it was last year, something that is rarely said about the Raiders.
Playoff Picks:
Wild Card Weekend:
(A6) MIA 20 @ (A3) IND 30
(A5) SD 27 @ (A4) NE 24
Divisional Weekend
(A5) SD 17 @ (A1) BAL 27
(A3) IND 20 @ (A2) DEN 34
AFC Championship Game
(A2) DEN 24 @ (A1) BAL 21
Super Bowl L (50)
(A2) DEN 31 vs (N1) GB 21
1.) New England = 10-6 (4)
Who's In: (TE) Scott Chandler, (DE) Jabaal Sheard, (CB) Robert McClain, (CB) Bradley Fletcher, (RB) Travaris Cadet
Who's Out: (CB) Darrelle Revis, (CB) Brandon Browner, (CB) Kyle Arrington, (DT) Vince Wilfork, (RB) Shane Vereen, (RB) Stevan Ridley, (LB) Akeem Ayers
That's a lot of churn for our defending champs, who will now have the services of Tom Brady for all 16 games; to me too much churn to really think they're going to be as good as last year. After years of not being able to play press man, they were able to do so much defensively last year. But all of that is gone now. Brady is still very good, and Gronk is still a monster, but their WRs still rely on slot guys, and the defense lost its best feature. I've been wrong a lot about the Patriots over the years, but I do think there will be some slippage.
2.) Miami = 10-6 (6)
Who's In: (DT) Ndamukong Suh, (WR) Kenny Stills, (WR) Greg Jennings, (TE) Jordan Cameron, (C) JD Walton, (DT) CJ Mosely (CB) Brice McCain
Who's Out: (WR) Mike Wallace, (RB) Knowshon Moreno, (WR) Brian Hartline, (TE) Charles Clay, (G) Daryn Colledge, (C) Samson Satele, (DT) Randy Starks, (DT) Jared Odrick, (LB) Danell Ellerbe, (LB) Phillip Wheeler, (CB) Cortland Finnegan
The Dolphins had one of the most active offseasons in recent memory, especially in the amount of depth they lost in the 'out' area, and the amount of high-end talent they got in the 'in' area. Picking up Ndamukong Suh changes your defense - a defense that was already in that #12-#8 range last year. Suh can help fix their run defense almost by itself. They've lost a lot of their other pieces in the front 7 and that LB core is downright pathetic, but Suh is a defense-maker. On the other side, if Tannehill can't lead them to 10 wins this year, and a Top-12 offense, they should probably cut bait. There are few weaknesses, and the Landry / Stills / Jennings trio is quite nice. They should be good, and for Joe Philbin's employment prospects, they have to be.
3.) Buffalo = 8-8
Who's In: (QB) Tyrod Taylor, (RB) LeSean McCoy, (WR) Percy Harvin, (TE) Charles Clay, (G) Richie Incognito
Who's Out: (RB) CJ Spiller, (TE) Scott Chandler, (G) Erik Pears, (LB) Kiko Alonso, (LB) Brandon Spikes, (S) Da'Norris Searcy
I don't actually think the Bills are going to be worse, and it wouldn't shock me if they make the playoffs much like the '09 Jets did, but how much better can their defense be? Rex Ryan is a master, but let's not act like Gregg Williams (2013) and Jim Schwartz (2014) did a bad job of coaching the hell out of that defense - especially the 2014 version that was arguably the best defense in the AFC. On the offense side, it really rests on Tyrod Taylor working behind a make-shift line; a combination that rarely works. At least the '09 Jets could lean on a great o-line with a prime D'Brickshaw and Mangold and a top run game, the '15 Bills? Not so much.
4.) New York = 6-10
Who's In: (QB) Ryan Fitzpatrick, (WR) Brandon Marshall, (T) James Brewer, (G) James Carpenter, (DT) Stephen Bowen, (DT) Kevin Vickerson, (LB) Erin Henderson, (CB) Darrelle Revis, (CB) Antonio Cromartie, (CB) Buster Skrine, (S) Marcus Gilchrist
Who's Out: (QB) Michael Vick, (WR) Percy Harvin, (CB) Kyle Wilson, (S) Dawan Landry
The Jets used that ample cap space to go on an all-time spending spree. I know Rex Ryan wishes the Jets were as active last offseason when they had similar cap-room. The big coup is getting Revis back, but also Cromartie and Skrine creating a top-3 at corner, the Jets weakest position last year. There a couple concerns on that defense, still without an end-rusher for the nth-straight year. Also, that offense still isn't fixed with an average run game and Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing passes. No matter how good Fitz may be he is still Ryan Fitzpatrick.
AFC North
1.) Baltimore = 12-4 (2)
Who's In: (CB) Kyle Arrington, (S) Kendrick Lewis
Who's Out: (WR) Torrey Smith, (TE) Owen Daniels, (DT) Haloti Ngata, (DE) Purnell McPhee, (CB) Antoine Cason, (S) Darian Stewart
The Ravens, like they have so often during the Ozzie-Newsome led era, started filling holes a year or two in advance. Recent draft picks are ready to step into the place of Haloti Ngata and Purnell McPhee (Brandon Williams and Timmy Jernigan). The place where they may suffer (relative term) is on offense trying to replace Torrey Smith and Owen Daniels, but with the combination of two rookies (Brashad Perriman, Maxx Williams) and the offensive mind of Marc Trestman, they can probably replace most of that value. Overall, this could be the best defense in the AFC, and will likely be at worst Top-3; combine that with solid offense (the AFC's best o-line), great defense and good Special Teams like always, they should be really good like always.
2.) Pittsburgh = 10-6
Who's In: (RB) DeAngelo Williams
Who's Out: (WR) Lance Moore, (DT) Brett Keisel, (DE) Jason Worilds, (CB) Ike Taylor, (CB) Brice McCain, (S) Troy Polamalu
Much like the Ravens, the Steelers didn't do much in terms of getting new players. Their problem, though, is that they didn't more because they couldn't. The Steelers had a really nice season in 2014 mainly because it all came together on offense. That is already not the case with Maurkice Pouncey on IR-designated to return. The offense should still be really good, but I can't see them being as good as last year. The defense shouldn't be as bad, I guess, but that's more hope than anything. The Steelers are good, they could easily be a playoff team, but I think they'll fall just out.
3.) Cincinnati = 7-9
Who's In: (DE) Michael Johnson, (LB) AJ Hawk
Who's Out: (TE) Jermaine Gresham, (T) Marshall Newhouse, (C) Mike Pollak, (CB) Terence Newman, (S) Taylor Mays
One of these years, the Bengals are going to fall a bit. In a way, I don't know what I want from the Bengals. If they go 10-6 again and lose another playoff game, it is hard to say that is unsuccessful - they are still a team that has been consistently competitive. But that's more running in place. If the bad parts of these teams show up, they could finish around .500 or below. The defense still does not have pass rushers, and the secondary lost a few pieces. They need 2013 Geno Atkins to show up again. The offense is still good, but they'll too need to play their best level to approach last year's 10-5-1 record. I do think this is the last stand for Marvin Lewis. It is easy to say it is about time for Marvin, but it is also the sad end for a guy who kept a moribund franchise competitive for a long time.
4.) Cleveland = 2-14
Who's In: (QB) Josh McCown, (WR) Dwayne Bowe, (WR) Brian Hartline, (DT) Randy Starks, (CB) Tramon Williams
Who's Out: (QB) Brian Hoyer, (WR) Miles Austin, (TE) Jordan Cameron, (NT) Ahtyba Rubin, (DE) Jabaal Sheard, (CB) Buster Skrine
You learn something quickly when doing this exercise and trying to get the W-L record of all teams add up to 256-256: some teams have to do really bad. You should never predict a team to go 2-14; but then again you have to make the records add up (most projection systems will never have a team over 12-4 either). The Browns are a bad team, their offseason makes them a little worse losing some of their defensive depth. They still are without Josh Gordon, and I don't think replacing Brian Hoyer is any improvement when the replacement is Josh McCown. It is sad to say that the Browns are just in a never-ending cycle. The only thing that will change that is getting a franchise QB - not sure if any of those are in the 2016 draft or not.
AFC South
1.) Indianapolis = 12-4 (3)
Who's In: (RB) Frank Gore, (WR) Andre Johnson, (G) Todd Herremans, (DT) Kendall Langford, (DE) Trent Cole, (S) Dwight Lowery
Who's Out: (RB) Ahmad Bradshaw, (RB) Trent Richardson, (WR) Reggie Wayne, (WR) Hakeem Nicks, (DT) Corey Redding, (LB) Shaun Phillips, (DE) Ricky Jean-Francois, (S) LaRon Landry
In the last year before people start getting paid, Ryan Grigson did what he is wont to do and signed a lot of guys. However, unlike in past year's where he signed average players to long deals, now he signed good, if aging, players to short deals. Personally, I think all these deals made sense. Gore should do well in the running game - actually everyone does in the Colts running game aside from Trent. Johnson is a better replacement for Wayne. Cole and Langford are better than the people they are replacing. We can overstate their issues because what New England does to them no one else seems to. They are a top team, with a tough schedule, but with Andrew Luck all is possible. What I will say, is that despite all the talk about 'building a monster' and being a different type of team, the Colts just built the same version of the Manning-era team.
2.) Houston = 7-9
Who's In: (QB) Ryan Fitzpatrick, (RB) Chris Polk, (WR) Cecil Shorts, (DT) Vince Wilfork, (S) Rahim Moore, (S) Stevie Brown
Who's Out: (QB) Ryan Fitzpatrick, (WR) Andre Johnson, (C) Chris Myers, (DE) Brooks Reed, (S) Daniel Manning
The Texans were a surprising 9-7 last year, capitalizing on an easy schedule. This year is not as forgiving. I actually think Hoyer is a downgrade from Fitzpatrick. I also think losing Andrew Johnson is more meaningful than most. They still have JJ Watt, which is a defense all its own, but I do worry about the rest of that defense, especially them all staying healthy. The offense has a few playmakers, but I worry about their o-line and not having Arian Foster, who does so much for them is an issue. 7-9 isn't a bad season, and I hope Texans fans understand that if it does happen. By record, it would be a step down but it isn't really.
3.) Tennessee = 6-10
Who's In: (WR) Harry Douglas, (T) Byron Bell, (LB) Brian Orakpo, (S) Da'Norris Searcy
Who's Out: (QB) Jake Locker, (WR) Nate Washington, (T) Michael Roos, (T) Michael Oher, (CB) Perrish Cox, (S) Bernard Pollard, (S) George Wilson
The Titans pick here is basically two things: I think Marcus Mariota will have a good rookie season, and I think the defense will take another step with Orakpo adding to a pass rush that should improve. The Titans, as they've been forever, especially since Fisher left, are exceedingly boring and nameless, but with Mariota that goes away. The Titans are slightly more interesting, and with Delanie Walker, Justin Hunter and Kendall Wright, there are some interesting options for him as well. The Titans are a few years away, but this could be the beginning.
4.) Jacksonville = 4-12
Who's In: (TE) Julius Thomas, (T) Jeremy Parnell, (C) Stefan Wisniewski, (DT) Jared Odrick, (CB) Davon House, (S) Sergio Brown
Who's Out: (DT) Red Bryant, (LB) Geno Hayes, (CB) Alan Ball
The Jaguars season has promise, but there's a dark glow after two of their biggest offseason moves had their season stunted. First was the more crushing one, with Dante Fowler Jr. tearing his ACL in mini-camp. The second was Julius Thomas now missing the first few games. They shored up the line a bit which should help Bortles, but losing Thomas for the beginning, and basically giving up on Justin Blackmon will not help. On defense they have an underrated pass rush, but not a great defense in the other levels. If Bortles is good they'll be fine long term, but the team hasn't really made it easy for him through two years.
AFC West
1.) Denver = 12-4 (1)
Who's In: (TE) Owen Daniels, (DT) Antonio Smith, (DT) Vance Walker, (G) Shelley Smith, (TE) James Casey
Who's Out: (TE) Julius Thomas, (G) Orlando Franklin, (DT) Terrance Knighton, (S) Rahim Moore, (WR) Wes WeLker
There's certainly more questions around Denver this year than the last couple. Forget Manning, but will the young o-line come together? Will that offense mesh with what Peyton does? Personally, I think Manning and Kubiak are good enough to mesh, and if they both bring what they've done before (Manning turn any collection of 5 guys into a competent pass blocking line and Kubiak doing the same with run blocking). What really helps the Broncos though is that defense could be really, really good. Wade Phillips has already made magic with Ware, and now he gets Von Miller as his new play-thing. I like the Antonio Smith signing as well. The secondary is still good. The defense can carry them through a rough spot if the offense takes some time to come together. To me, they remain the team to beat in the AFC West.
2.) San Diego = 10-6 (5)
Who's In: (WR) Stevie Johnson, (T) Joseph Barksdale, (G) Orlando Franklin, (CB) Jimmy Wilson
Who's Out: (WR) Eddie Royal, (C) Nick Hardwick, (LB) Dwight Freeney, (RB) Ryan Mathews, (CB) Shareece Wright, (S) Marcus Gilchrist
The Chargers have been between 7-9 and 9-7 for the past four years, and I think they break out of that malaise, just barely, in the good direction. They still employ Philip Rivers, who when he is on is a Top-5 QB in the NFL (as recently as 2013, he was probably the 2nd best QB in the NFL for a season). The o-line is still in flux (personally think Orlando Franklin is overrated), and a receiving core that needs a comeback year from Keenan Allen combine for an offense that looks better on paper, but their defense could make up for some of that. The Chargers are also a well coached team that only occasionally fails to show up, hence the good but not great record.
3.) Kansas City = 8-8
Who's In: (WR) Jeremy Maclin, (G) Ben Grubbs, (LB) Joe Mays, (S) Tyvon Branch
Who's Out: (WR) Dwayne Bowe, (C) Rodney Hudson, (DT) Vance Walker, (TE) Anthony Fasano
The Chiefs were probably the best non-playoff team last year - beating both the Super Bowl participants and having the Pythagorean record of an 11-5 team. That said, I think they'll take a slight step back. The defense doesn't have the depth of personnel they once did (I don't like this Poe injury given how critical he was previously), and their o-line has bled personnel. I still like some of their pieces, and think Jeremy Maclin will help boost that awful receiving core, but you can only do so much in a tough division, with a tough schedule.
4.) Oakland = 5-11
Who's In: (WR) Michael Crabtree, (C) Ray Hudson, (DT) Dan Williams, (LB) Malcolm Smith, (S) Nate Allen, (RB) Roy Helu
Who's Out: (RB) Darren McFadden, (WR) James Jones, (G) Kevin Booth, (C) Stefan Wisniewski, (DT) Antonio Smith, (LB) LaMarr Woodley, (CB) Tarrell Brown, (CB) Carlos Rogers, (S) Tyvon Branch
How does a team with so much cap room lose so many players? Anyway, I see a slight improvement for the Raiders because of their young guys starting to perform. I think Derek Carr can approach average and I really like what I've seen from Amari Cooper. I completely forget they signed Michael Crabtree, and there are some intriguing weapons here. The defense will go as far as their old veterans will take them, not a bad approach to take short-term deals on older players while they draft the next wave. Khalil Mack is the current wave already, a guy who could have a Von Miller type season. The future is brighter than what it was last year, something that is rarely said about the Raiders.
Playoff Picks:
Wild Card Weekend:
(A6) MIA 20 @ (A3) IND 30
(A5) SD 27 @ (A4) NE 24
Divisional Weekend
(A5) SD 17 @ (A1) BAL 27
(A3) IND 20 @ (A2) DEN 34
AFC Championship Game
(A2) DEN 24 @ (A1) BAL 21
Super Bowl L (50)
(A2) DEN 31 vs (N1) GB 21
