Wednesday, June 3, 2015

2015 Stanley Cup Finals: The Pick

(W-C3) Chicago Blackhawks  vs  (E-A2) Tampa Bay Lightning



State of the Teams: Chicago still only has four playable defenseman. Another series down, a series where the Blackhawks played about two extra games worth of hockey with the OT games. The Blackhawks had this problem before the Western Conference Finals, and they still do. I guess Duncan Keith is a superman, but it will be interesting to see if he can hold up in another series playing 30+ minutes a game. For the Blackhawks, they actually played Timmonen a little more, but they really can’t get away with that against a fast team. The Hawks also went to their trump card on offense in Games 5-7, playing Kane and Toews on the same line for long stretches. It makes that first line scary-good, but really dampens their 2nd line of offensive talent. For the Lightning, they have the opposite problem, with too many defenseman! Seriously, they’ve now basically committed to this 11 forwards 7 defenseman matchup, double-shifting one of their top three (Killorn, Filpulla, Stamkos at random). That has limited the playing time of Brendan Morrow, who’s a little too slow for the NHL playoffs in 2015 (the Lightning’s version of Timmonen), and maximized the time that one of their top-6 are on the ice. It is an interesting gambit for a really top-heavy team. On the goalie side, both have had moments of insanity, like Crawford getting benched in Round 1, or giving up 9 goals in Gms. 4-5 of the last series, or Bishop’s last three games in Tampa. Bishop’s best has definitely been better though, witness his three shutouts being arguably the three biggest games they’ve played, Game 7 against Detroit, and Game 5 & 7 against the Rangers. Both of these teams are really good. Both of these teams are well coached and won’t get over-hyped or fall apart.

The Matchup: The Blackhawks are going from one challenge to the other. They’re going from playing against a very different type of team, a more physical, larger team like Anaheim, to now a team that can counter the Blackhawks’s greatest strength: team speed. The Hawks are one of the fastest teams. The Lightning are faster. In a weird way, the Lightning are going against arguably a worse opponent. The Rangers are really good. They basically are the Eastern Conference version of the Hawks. They don’t have the starpower that Chicago does (apart from goal), but they have superior depth. The Lightning actually may be relieved to now face a human goalie, after beating Price and Lundqvist in back-to-back series. Crawford is easily a step down. That said, there are a few reasons to pick Chicago that aren’t just ‘they’re battle tested!’. First, the Blackhawks have the defensive ability to neutralize a team like Tampa, that overly relies on their top lines to score. They have a Toews-Hossa duo that can go right up against the Triplets, and then fight fire with fire giving the Kane line against Stamkos. They also have a great set of four defensemen to throw at them as well. The Lightning scored 21 of their 22 goals in the Conference Finals with their top-6 forwards. That needs to change. The Lightning, though, do have the ability to score from depth lines – it just didn’t happen against the Rangers. The Hawks also have a great PK to throw against the Lightning at times dominant powerplay. The Lightning will need big series from their defense, but they’ve done it at times. This really is an even series, and when you put things like team mentality in play, you can start tipping it one way or the other.


The Pick: I’m going with the Lightning in 6 games. Sure, that might be an odd pick when the much more obvious Tampa in 7 is sitting out there, but this series I think the lack of defensive depth will hurt Chicago even more after going through the physical pounding of Anaheim for 7 games. Keith can only do so much. The Lightning are, in reality, equally skilled. They have good defensive forwards. They have multiple lines. They have their best player on a line that will likely not even have to face Toews and Hossa that much (it really is pick your poison for Quenneville). They are healthier, younger, faster, and I honestly think given the lack of defensive depth, better.

About Me

I am a man who will go by the moniker dmstorm22, or StormyD, but not really StormyD. I'll talk about sports, mainly football, sometimes TV, sometimes other random things, sometimes even bring out some lists (a lot, lot, lot of lists). Enjoy.