Looking Back at Last Week's
Picks
FALCONS (-7.5) over Buccaneers (CORRECT
= 1-0)
Cowboys (-2) over RAMS (CORRECT =
2-0)
Chargers (+2.5) over BILLS (CORRECT
= 3-0)
EAGLES (-5.5) over Redskins (WRONG =
3-1)
SAINTS (-10.5) over Vikings (CORRECT
= 4-1)
BENGALS (-7.5) over Titans (CORRECT
= 5-1)
GIANTS (+1.5) over Texans (CORRECT
= 6-1)
Ravens (-2) over BILLS (Push =
6-1-1)
Raiders (+14.5) over PATRIOTS (CORRECT
= 7-1-1)
Colts (-7) over JAGUARS (CORRECT =
8-1-1)
LIONS (-1.5) over Packers (CORRECT
= 9-1-1)
DOLPHINS (-4) over Chiefs (WRONG =
9-2-1)
CARDINALS (+2.5) over 49ers (CORRECT
= 10-2-1)
Broncos (+4.5) over SEAHAWKS (CORRECT
= 11-2-1)
PANTHERS (-3.5) over Steelers (WRONG =
11-3-1)
Bears (+2.5) over JETS (CORRECT =
12-3-1)
Year-to-Date: 28-19-1
Power Rankings
32.) Jacksonville Jaguars
(0-3 = 44-119)
That wasn’t too surprising really. The Jaguars had essentially the
exact same performance against the Colts at home last year, trailing again by
30 at the half. This time they had a shiny new rookie QB to turn to. I don’t
think Bortles was all that bad, but he won’t survive behind that o-line. I’ve
seen o-lines ruin young QB’s before and for the Jaguars’ sake, I hope that
doesn’t happen here.
31.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(0-3 = 45-95)
I’m not getting too crazy at how bad the Buccaneers have been yet.
Sure, you would think a team with this many high-priced free agents to play
better but free agency is not a great investment. Lovie Smith took a while to
really make an impact in Chicago (the ’04 team in his first year was a
disaster), and I think this is more than a 1-year deal here in Tampa Bay. That
all said, my word was that game humiliating.
30.) Oakland Raiders
(0-3 = 37-65)
This is a sign of how little I think of New England that I’m not
even giving the Raiders too much credit for playing the Pats close. The defense
finally decided to play for a while, and their run defense showed up. Given
that it is the Raiders in a post-2002 world, they’ll probably go back to giving
up 200 yards on the ground a week again. The offense is so limited, but I will
say that Derek Carr has all of the pocket presence that his elder brother
lacked.
29.) Miami Dolphins
(1-2 = 58-83)
What a disaster the last two weeks have been. Losing to a Bills
team in Buffalo the day they retire Ralph Wilson and honor cancer-survivor Jim
Kelly was always going to be a challenge. Losing at home to an 0-2 Chiefs team
missing key players by 19 was even worse. What is more strange is I really don’t
understand how given that they won the yardage and turnover battle. Didn’t care
enough about the team to find out either.
28.) Minnesota Vikings
(1-2 = 50-56)
Their blowout loss to the Patriots looks even worse now, but that
was a decent performance on defense in the Superdome. Their defense is
exceedingly well coached, as you knew they would given the man coaching them.
Their pass rush has put together some nice pieces to play really effectively.
Still, that offense is very limited without Peterson and with their o-line
playing below their talent level.
27.) Tennessee Titans
(1-2 = 43-69)
Their dominant Week 1 win over the Chiefs seems like a lifetime
ago. They’re probably not as bad as they’ve shown the last two weeks (walking
into Cincinnati seems like a buzzsaw right now) but Locker is playing scared.
The defense is holding their own, but still has too many miscommunications and
too little talent. I think Whisenhunt turns to Mettenberger by Week 10.
26.) Cleveland Browns
(1-2 = 74-77)
I don’t really know why I have them this low, as Mike Pettine is a
fantastic coach and Kyle Shanahan is halfway to undoing all the bad he did to
his name last year in Washington. Still, their attempts to use Manziel are
humorously misguided right now. I do fear that their close losses will take a
toll on them later in the season.
25.) St. Louis Rams
(1-2 = 56-85)
Very surprised they blew that game. They also blew it in some of
the most Jeff Fisher-esque ways, like having an overpriced ‘weapon’ make a
terrible play like Jared Cook dropping an easy TD, and having a defense make
one huge mistake, like they did by leaving Dez Bryant wide open. They had a
real chance to keep pace in the NFC West, but right now I think they’re already
done. Austin Davis does look like someone really worth evaluating the rest of
this season though.
24.) Kansas City Chiefs (1-2 = 61-65)
Their loss to the Titans might end up being a real outlier in what
will be a mediocre team. Certainly, their close loss to the Broncos and now
easy win in Miami have restored some faith in their hopes in 2014. The Patriots
game will be a real test for an offense that is making good use of the limited
weapons that they have. The defense still has some talent at the edges that can
ruin average o-lines.
23.) New York Jets
(1-2 = 62-72)
I’m not really sure what to think of the Jets right now. On the
one hand, their d-line is absolutely dominant and the front-seven is more
talented than ever in the Rex era; on the other the secondary is ‘hot garbage’
as Deion Sanders would say. Rex schemes them about as well as possible, but it
won’t be enough against better offenses. The Jets offense does seem better, but
Geno still makes a few too many mistakes for my liking.
22.) Dallas Cowboys
(2-1 = 77-69)
It seems like they’ve somehow flown under the radar despite now
being over .500. Of course, it doesn’t help that they beat two of the least interesting
teams in the NFL (Titans and Rams). What’s good for them is they’ve won two
road games already, and they’ve done some very un-Cowboys like things like
focus on the run game and avoid having their probably past-his-peak QB throw
too many times. Monte Kiffin’s defense is far better than it should given their
personnel as well.
21.) Houston Texans
(2-1 = 64-50)
Snap back to reality… Oh, there goes Fitzy. I guess Ryan
Fitzpatrick being the QB will be a problem going forward. Their defense looked
slow in the secondary for the first time. Their offense looked very limited
with Fitzpatrick and Andre struggled to get separation (so sad). The defense is
still quite good but they have to improve their offense to really have a
chance.
20.) Buffalo Bills
(2-1 = 62-52)
The Bills definitely lost a bit of their luster in that no-pun
intended lack-luster performance against the Chargers. EJ Manuel is not there
yet, scattering too many passes and lacking the real pocket presence to fully
operate behind a suspect o-line. The weapons will still be used well because
Doug Marrone has a good handle over all their various skills. The defense
played pretty well, and will continue to do so, but I hope Stephon Gilmore is
healthy.
19.) New York Giants
(1-2 = 58-77)
Their loss to the Lions and Cardinals may just be the issue with
playing two good teams in the first two weeks of the season. Their offense
looked so much better in Week 3. I have no idea what to think going forward, as
they could easily regress to Week 1-2 level in their upcoming game, but they
also could continue this level going forward. What I do know is that defense is
still good when they don’t have to cover Calvin Johnson.
18.) Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1 = 73-72)
Totally stunned by that win. No idea what the Panthers defense
decided to do in that game, but the Steelers really brought their run game. The
pass game is still in that ‘Todd Haley will over-rely on quick passes’ mode,
but Roethlisberger makes it work because Roethlisberger is just a very god QB.
The defense played decently well, but I can’t see them holding up with so many
losses in personnel from that game. Getting James Harrison back is not the
answer.
17.) Washington Redskins (1-2 = 81-64)
Tough loss for them, as their defense got exposed in the back end,
got even more injured in the back end, and their offense will likely only get
worse. Kirk Cousins had a really nice game but that might say more about scheme
and personnel than Cousins himself, given Cousins struggles all of last year
when he was a starter.
16.) New Orleans Saints
(1-2 = 78-72)
Something’s up with their offense. Brees looked fine against
Minnesota, but that team basically had three good drives all day. They have
issues running the ball, and Brees is getting more pressure than normal. Their
defense had by far the best day of the season, but it helps when the starting
QB gets hurt midway through the game. I’m still skeptical of them long-term,
but they won the game they had to win.
15.) San Francisco 49ers
(1-2 = 62-68)
Something’s up with their offense. Kaepernick looked fine against
Arizona, but that team basically had three good drives all day. They have
issues running the ball, and Kaepernick is getting more pressure than normal.
Their defense did not have the best day of the season, even though it helps
when they are playing Drew Stanton. I’m still skeptical of them long term, as
they lost a game they probably needed to win.
14.) Indianapolis Colts
(1-2 = 95-78)
Nothing’s up with their offense. Despite running too much and
being committed to either a heavy set or 5-wide, they’ve put up points every
week. They’ll look a lot different if the referees didn’t suck at the end of
the Eagles game. Andrew Luck looked great on Sunday, but that is Jacksonville.
The Colts schedule is pretty soft, but tests are coming up later. Better to
work out the kinks against the Jags and Titans of the world first.
13.) Green Bay Packers
(1-2 = 54-79)
Something is really up with their offense. Aaron Rodgers looks
just off. He’s having to fit too many balls into tight windows, and he’s
missing more of those than normal. Randall Cobb does not look healthy, and the
TE is a nothing at this point. Maybe letting Greg Jennings and James Jones walk
with no real replacement wasn’t the best plan of action? That defense played
OK, but you never really know what they’ll be week to week.
12.) Chicago Bears
(2-1 = 75-62)
They looked very average in another win. I would like to see if
any team has won back-to-back road games giving up over 400 yards and putting
up less than 300? That’s a really random set of criteria, but it seems odd to
win games getting outgained 415-280 on the road. Getting both Marshall and
Jefferey healthy will be giant going forward. The defense still has no plan to
stop anyone over the middle, but my word is Corey Fuller great.
11.) Philadelphia Eagles
(3-0 = 101-78)
The Eagles are a weird team to me. On one hand, their offense is
designed so well and guys are wide open and they score at will. On the other
hand, if the ref calls a clear hold against them in the MNF game at Indy, and
if like one of five things don’t go their way against Washington, they are 0-2
with the only win coming against Jacksonville (a game they trailed deservedly
17-0). Foles hasn’t looked great. McCoy hasn’t looked great. Yet here they are
scoring 30+ each week.
10.) Atlanta Falcons
(2-1 = 103-72)
You really can’t take much from their evisceration of Tampa Bay,
but the Falcons offense looks superb if Matt Ryan gets time. They are using
Devin Hester in a really nice way, and Julio Jones looks unstoppable. I’m still
worried about their defense, but the pass rush showed some signs of limited life
against Tampa Bay. Their two young corners are players, man.
9.) New England Patriots
(2-1 = 66-49)
In a lot of defensive categories, they are one of the best teams
in the league. Issue is, of course, that they’ve played two of the worst eight
offenses in the NFL. The Raiders struggled to get anything against the Jets and
Texans and while they struggled against New England, Derek Carr had all day.
The offense is even worse. The Raiders were a sieve against the run and the
Pats couldn’t get a yard if they needed to. Something is amiss. Reputation
alone is keeping them in the Top-10.
8.) Baltimore Ravens
(2-1 = 65-50)
Gutty win in a game they easily could have lost. The Ravens had to
come back time and time again as their defense couldn’t hold a lead, but the
offense showed it could get one. Flacco borders between really solid in that
offense and uncomfortable. Have to think that dissipates as the season goes on.
They could be a fringe contender, which I was not expecting before the season
started.
7.) Carolina Panthers
(2-1 = 63-58)
I’m not jumping off after a bad performance, as that was likely
the worst defensive game they’ll play all season. It is slightly concerning
that they couldn’t get much pressure against Roethlisberger, but Todd Haley did
everything to make sure Ben got it out quick. Their run defense won’t be that
bad again. Problem for Carolina is the brutal schedule they have coming up.
6.) Arizona Cardinals
(3-0 = 66-45)
Good news is that they are 3-0. Bad news is they easily could have
lost Week 1 to San Diego. Good news is San Diego is really good so losing to
them wouldn’t have been a scourge. Bad news is they continue to lose players
and have to resort to blitzing to get pass pressure. Good news is their
secondary is deep enough that blitzing isn’t a bad strategy.
5.) Detroit Lions (2-1
= 61-45)
The offense did their best to make the game close, but the defense
of the Lions was fantastic, and has been much of the year. They swallowed up
the run game. Fairley looks good, and Suh quietly has been a monster this
season. The offense needs to develop some reliable strategy outside of Calvin,
but if the defense can be close to what it was against Green Bay, this could be
a scary, scary team.
4.) San Diego Chargers
(2-1 = 69-49)
I think the Bills were not a great 2-0 team, but that was an
impressive performance in a 1PM EST game after a huge win. No letdown for this
team. The defense is probably worse than those 49 points would indicate given
how little they’ve actually been on the field, but the Chargers won’t give up a
lot of points. Most of that is the offense, which has perfected scoring on
long, time consuming drives.
3.) Denver Broncos
(2-1 = 75-67)
Obviously, a tough loss, but they did show they can play with
Seattle. You can say Seattle dominated that game, but in reality the game was a
complete draw through 60 minutes. The Seahawks had a dominant 5 minute stretch
to close out the 1st half, and the Broncos responded with a dominant
7-8 minutes to close out the game. Manning’s drive was brilliant. His arm looks
as good as its been in Denver, and I think they’ll start attacking teams deeper
more; or at least they should.
2.) Seattle Seahawks
(2-1 = 83-66)
Gutty win for a team that I’m sure was shocked they had to play
more than 60 minutes. That defense, when they’re on, is just amazing. The
offense has issues. Unpopular opinion, but I don’t think Russell Wilson has
really improved this year. He’s still skittish under pressure. He still has
issues repeatedly hitting players. He’s good enough that it doesn’t matter, but
put him on a team without BeastMode and without the LOB, and I do wonder how
good he would be.
1.) Cincinnati Bengals
(3-0 = 80-33)
The three teams that they’ve played in games not against the
Bengals have gone 5-1. The Falcons scored 37 in Week 1 (over 500 yards of
offense), then scored 49 on offense in Week 3 (high-400 yards of offense). In
Week 2, they scored 10 points and struggled to get to 250 yards. That defense
is amazing. The offense hasn’t even played a good 60 minutes yet. There’s
little chance it lasts, but they’ve been utterly dominant through three games.
Looking Ahead to Next Week’s Games
Bye: Arizona Cardinals (3-0), Cincinnati Bengals (3-0), Denver
Broncos (2-1), San Diego Chargers (2-1), Seattle Seahawks (2-1), St. Louis Rams
(1-2)
Obviously, you can’t anticipate these things, but to me we are
missing teams that I had ranked #6 and #4-1 all in the same week. Knowing this,
if there was ever a week to not watch football and go out and actually do
something on Sunday, this is the Week. This will probably be my ‘bye week’,
where I go out on Sunday and then power through 7 hours and 30 minutes of Red
Zone in 2 hours in the night.
13.) Miami Dolphins (1-2) @
Oakland Raiders (0-3) (1:00 –
CBS)
12.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(0-3) @
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) (1:00 –
FOX)
11.) Jacksonville Jaguars
(0-3) @
San Diego Chargers (4:05 – CBS)
I call it “Thank God for Florida State” Sunday, as we get the
three Florida teams, all playing badly, all playing on the road. The Dolphins
take a trip to England, the Buccaneers take a trip to Heinz, and the Jags take
a trip to a likely slaughtering.
10.) Tennessee Titans
(1-2) @
Indianapolis Colts (1-2) (1:00 –
CBS)
9.) Atlanta Falcons (2-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (1-2) (4:25 – FOX)
9.) Atlanta Falcons (2-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (1-2) (4:25 – FOX)
I call it “Sometimes, the game is just a game” Sunday, as I have
nothing to say about these two games. I feel bad for the people who get the
Falcons @ Vikings game as the ‘Fox Doubleheader America’s Game of the Week’
Game. The Titans and Colts is quite uninspiring, a rivalry that hasn’t had
juice since 2009.
8.) Buffalo Bills (2-1) @
Houston Texans (2-1) (1:00 – CBS)
I call it the “One of these teams is going to be 3-1!” Sunday, as
ONE OF THESE TWO TEAMS IS GOING TO BE 3-1!!!!
7.) Detroit Lions (2-1) @ New
York Jets (1-2) (1:00 – FOX)
6.) New York Giants
(1-2) @
Washington Redskins (1-2) (TNF –
CBS)
5.) New England Patriots
(2-1) @
Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) (MNF –
ESPN)
I call it “Six Teams with a lot to Prove” Sunday and Monday, as
all these teams have something to show. The Lions have to show that they aren’t
the old Lions. The Jets have to show some life before the schedule gets really
hard (have fun with Chargers, Broncos, Pats the next three games). The Giants
have to show last week wasn’t a fluke and they have this offense figured out.
The Redskins have to show that they can compete in the NFC East. The Pats have
to show that their offense is not a disaster, and the Chiefs have to show that
the only reason they won was not due to the Dolphins being a disaster.
4.) New Orleans Saints
(1-2) @
Dallas Cowboys (2-1) (SNF – NBC)
3.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) @ San Francisco 49ers (1-2) (4:25 – FOX)
3.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) @ San Francisco 49ers (1-2) (4:25 – FOX)
2.) Green Bay Packers
(1-2) @
Chicago Bears (2-1) (1:00 – FOX)
I call it “Can the three Underacheivers get Back on Track?”
Sunday, as the Saints, Packers and 49ers, three of the preseason favorites in
the NFC behind the Seahawks (in fact, the
three favorites behind the Seahawks) are all 1-2 playing teams with better
records. The Packers really can’t afford a loss, but neither can the 49ers
given that their schedule is only getting harder (still have 5 games against
the NFC West). The Saints can’t afford a loss either, and have to play a road
primetime game, which hasn’t gone well recently.
1.) Carolina Panthers
(2-1) @
Baltimore Ravens (2-1) (1:00 –
FOX)
I call it “Ice Up Son” Sunday, as Steve Smith plays the Panthers.
Need I say Fucking More.
