Maybe it was around 2007, when Nadal won his third French
Open without much fuss against Roger Federer, beating Fed for the 2nd
straight time in a Final, 3rd straight time at the French Open, and
doing it rather easily. Nadal did lose a set, his first in the tournament, but
unlike in the 2006 Final, when Fed blitzed Nadal 6-1 in the opening set, this
was more a momentary lapse of concentration by Nadal. It was around this time
that the question was beginning to be asked – just how many French Opens can
Rafa Nadal actually win? The wildest guesses at the time were probably 10. It
made some sense. Nadal had just turned 21. Federer seemed to be the world’s 2nd
best clay court player, and he wasn’t close to Nadal. Why not 10? Somehow, that
may have been an underestimate.
Rafael Nadal, without playing his best tennis, just won his
9th French Open. It already seems a little absurd. People may have
wondered and dreamed Nadal would do this, but Rafa actually did. Nadal won his
9th French Open Title, and in all but one run (2010) he had to
either beat Roger Federer or Novak Djokovic. He beat both three times
(’06-’08). Nadal has played in a very competitive time in tennis. He’s also
dominated this particular surface, and more importantly, that particular
tournament so much the competition doesn’t matter. Rafael Nadal is calling his
shot at Roland Garros. It has become increasingly likely he’ll win as many as
he wants, competition be damned.
It didn’t always look like this. Nadal was a perfect clay
court player from 2005-2008, his first run of dominance. That was the period he
was wearing sleeveless shirts and cargo pants, and ran faster and harder than
anyone, and hit looping defensive shots and pounded Federer’s backhand like it
was a punching bag. That style was ruthlessly effective. Thing is, Rafa Nadal
has now changed his game, gotten older, and become even more dominant at the
tournament. He responded to his first, and still only, loss at the French Open
to rededicate his game to offense, to shorter points, to dictating with the
forehand instead of staying with the tried and true of pounding away at
backhands. He did it all to make himself more viable at the other tournaments
really, and to save his legs on hardcourt. Strange thing happened, though, it
didn’t make him any worse at the French.
Watching yesterday’s match against Novak Djokovic, there
were a couple immediate takeaways. The first is still no one can attack Nadal’s
forehand with their backhand like Djokovic, a relative advantage that will
likely never have the effect it had in Djokovic’s incredible 2011 season, but
still be effective. The other is that it takes a superhuman effort to get just
a set of Nadal. Rafa didn’t play very well in the first set and Novak did.
Then, almost literally like a swtich, Nadal turned it on in the 2nd
and then didn’t only outplay Novak, he out-attacked him. Nadal ended up with
more winners, fewer unforced errors, dominated Djokovic’s 2nd serve
and won most of his own 2nd serve points. Only a surprising mental
dip cost him an easy 4th set, but he won anyway. By the end, Novak
looked broken, far more so than in previous losses to Nadal. Even last year’s
epic 5-set loss, a loss that ended a tournament in which he dedicated to his
first coach who had recently died, Novak didn’t seem as down as he did this
time.
In a way, that makes sense. Last year, Nadal entered the
French with just two losses on the season. One was to Djokovic at Monte Carlo,
but Nadal was dominant in the French coming into that semifinal. He also,
quietly, wildly outplayed Djokovic in that match. He had 15 more winners and
fewer unforced errors. He won dominant sets while Djokovic pulled his two sets
out of thin air. Novak did come close to winning, but he didn’t play well
enough to really deserve it. In a way, it was the opposite of the classic
6-hour 2012 Australian Open Final, which Djokovic nearly blew despite playing
reasonably better. Last year’s 5-set semifinal also continued the 5-match trend
of Djokovic getting closer and closer. His first matchup against Nadal at the
French was in 2006, and Djokovic retired after losing the first two sets. The
next two years he lost in straight sets in the Semifinals. In 2012, he played
the Final against Nadal and won a set against him for the first time at the
French but lost. Then was last year. Now, for the first time, the trend
reversed itself.
Nadal was beatable this year. He had been rusty all season
ever since his at-the-time shocking loss to Stan Wawrinka in the Australian
Open. He had won just one tournament all year long, the Madrid Masters, where
he didn’t have the toughest path. He lost to Djokovic rather meekly in the Rome
Final. He lost early at clay events. For the first time since 2005, Nadal was
not the bettors favorite heading into the tournament, Novak was. All that, and
he was further away to winning this year than last. The Nadal hurdle must seem
gigantic to Djokovic right now, somewhat where it was for Federer back in 2008.
Federer ended up winning a French Open, completing his
career slam, the next year. Of course, he didn’t have to go through Nadal.
Maybe Djokovic gets that lucky, maybe someone else takes out Rafa next year.
Maybe Rafa’s knees act up, but it is becoming less likely not more. Since
returning to the tour after seven months off last February, Nadal hasn’t
expressed any issues ever with his knees. He seems to be physically in the best
shape he has been since 2010-11. He looks healthy and confident. He’s changed
his game to play even shorter points. It was odd to see Rafa have such a
healthy edge in winning short points but losing the longer rallies to Novak.
Nadal wants to play these shorter points now, he wants to attack. It will keep
his career going longer and also keep him winning.
The one cause for concern with the ‘Nadal will win 10 French
Opens!’ crowd back in 2007 was his physical style of play could end his career
early. While those fears were definitely not unfounded, as he’s missed more
time than the other big stars (save for Del Potro) since he first injured his
knees in 2009, he seems fine now. I think the Rafa detractors back in 2007
didn’t think he would be this good in 2014. He just turned 28 during the French
Open, and seems fine. Now, Roger Federer also won his 14th major at
28 and has won just three since, but when Federer was 28, Nadal and DJokovic
were squarely in their primes. Right now, there are no up-and-coming guys Nadal
has to be all that worried about. The biggest worry is still Novak.
Djokovic will likely never reach the level he had in 2011
again. That said, he still continues to beat Nadal consistently, especially in
best of three matches. His problem now is best of 5. In a way, that is
everyone’s problem with Nadal. Nadal has won his last four Grand Slam matches
against Djokovic, including three straight in Finals. In fact, one of the most
impressive stats of Nadal’s career is his record in Grand Slam matches against
the other big three. He is now 9-3 against Djokovic to go along with a 9-2 mark
against Federer and a 7-2 against Murray. Overall, that is a tidy 25-7 in Grand
Slams, and even if you remove the French Open he’s 12-7, with at least a .500
record against all three. Rafael Nadal may not get to Federer’s 17 slams, and
he won’t touch some of the records Federer put up, like winning three majors
four times, or making 23 straight semifinals. Heck, even Novak DJokovic has
gotten to the Semifinals of a Slam more times given the amount Nadal has lost
to injury. That said, Rafael Nadal has the edge over basically everyone
head-to-head. He has a winning record against everyone in the Top-25. And he
has that 25-7 mark against the Big 3.
Rafael Nadal is definitely not underappreciated. The only
people that decry his achievement are rather obvious trolls. They still call
him a defensive one-trick pony who can only win on clay, despite his three slam
wins on Hard Court and two on Grass. Nadal, though, has lived up to everyone’s
best expectations of him. He’s dominated the French Open in the way most hoped
he could, winning 9 of ten, winning 197 sets and dropping just 20 in his 67
French Open matches. He’s changed and adjusted his game to become an all-around
force and a great player on every surface. Rafael Nadal is one of the Top-5
Players ever, but his achievements and consistency on clay is still stunning.
He never gets tired of the surface, never drops in intensity, he reacted to
winning his 9th French Open like he did his 2nd, and the
emotion he showed when the National Anthem of Spain was playing was real.
He might be done winning French Opens. You never know what
will happen when a tennis player gets closer and closer to 30. You never know
with his medical history. You never know when someone’s desire will finally
fade. That all said, if anyone’s desire will last it is Nadal’s. No one is a
harder competitor. No one makes the most of every point more than him. One last
stat before Rafa and the Tennis World heads off to Wimbledon (where Rafa,
ironically enough, will try to end a 2-game losing streak), Nadal has won his
last 12 Semifinals at majors. Now, there’s a caveat that he’s lost before the
semis three times in that streak, but the 12-consecutive wins in the Semifinal
Round is longer than any streak Fed had (10) and Novak’s longest is four. For
his career, Nadal is 20-3 in the Semifinals of a major, which blows away
Federer’s 24-10 mark, or Novak’s 13-9 mark. If you are going to beat Nadal it
will have to be because you outplay him at the very end, and he’s made himself
about as hard to outplay as possible, and impossible to on clay.
 |
| Where it all began, one Champion to another back in 2005 |
