The playoffs are here. The greatest 5-week mini-series in the world. 11 games. 12 teams. 9 different stadiums. 3 networks. 6 announcing crews. So much to love. Let's get going with the Wild Card picks.
The State of the Teams: The Chiefs enter this game on a low of a 2-5 finish after a 9-0 start (the worst ever finish for a team that finished 9-0), but on the high of nearly winning a game playing just two starters against a team playing for its playoff life. The Chiefs are basically the reverse of what they were early in the season. The offense has stayed pretty consistent but definitely got better as the year along. The defense, in large part due to injuries to Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, fell apart after a great start to become a decidedly mediocre unit. Houston is expected to play, which will help pump life into a listless pass rush. The Colts, on the other side, come in off of three complete games. In the immediate aftermath of the Reggie Wayne injury the Colts struggled mightily, but have righted themselves by stopping their abashed commitment to the run and letting Luck loose. The defense has also allowed just 20 combined points over their last three games. This is an odd situation for the Colts, to actually enter a playoff tournament playing really well.
The Matchup: These teams played just two weeks ago, and the Colts won relatively easily. They won in Kansas City, shutting down an offense that had scored 80 points in the previous two games and allowing just 7 points. Of course, there seems to be little correlation in recent years from regular season results to playoff rematches. That doesn't mean the Chiefs will win (the Texans certainly played the same in their regular season and playoff losses to New England last year), but doesn't mean the Colts will win. First, the Chiefs have some of their horses back, like Houston and Brandon Albert. The biggest individual unit mismatches are in the Chiefs favor. The Chiefs had the #2 rushing DVOA in the NFL, while the Colts were #22 against the run. The other unit vs. unit matchups are pretty even, but that one is jarring. The other edge is the Chiefs in Special Teams. They were the #1 Special Teams by DVOA, mainly because of their returning proficiency. The Colts aren't bad like they were in the Manning era, but they have been below average covering kicks. The Colts play enough receivers in most of their plays to get some good matchups with the lower depth of the Chiefs secondary, which is necessary, since the Chiefs are good against #1 and #2 receivers. In the end, the Colts scored 23 points because they got an uncharacteristically sloppy game from the Chiefs, and had two hard to repeat long Donald Brown TD. The game itself was closer than the 23-7 score.
The Pick: The Chiefs have lost their last 8 playoff games, three of which were to the Colts (1995, 2003, 2006). This very matchup started off the 2006 playoffs, a nice little de-ja-vu for Colts fans. That said, I do like the Chiefs here. The Chiefs have the one largest unit vs. unit advantage, with their #2 rush offense against a poor rush defense. They also have both edge rushers for the first time since Week 11, which should help them get pressure on Andrew Luck. The Colts have risen to the occasion this season against good teams, and that could certainly continue, but the matchups just don't favor the Colts here. They have to hope that their high-variance team (3rd highest offensive variance, the highest defensive variance) hits both of its high marks today, and that isn't all that likely. I hate picking against this Colts team, mainly because they've done some incredible things, but this team still has too many holes and a good, balanced team like Kansas City should take advantage of them.
The State of the Teams: Do you know that the Saints aren't great on the road? No, well let me tell you about it. At home, they were 8-0, scoring 272 points and allowing 125. If you take their home numbers are double them (essentially a 16-game season at home), they score 545 points, allow 250, gain 7,092 yards and allow 4,324. Basically that would make them the greatest team of all time. On the road, they are decidedly mediocre in every way. If they played a 16-game road season, they score 284 points, allow 358, gain 5,690 yards and allow 5,458 yards. The most points they allowed at home was 17. The fewest points they allowed on the road was 14. The fewest points they scored at home was 23. They only crossed that number twice on the road. This may have not been true early in the Brees/Payton era, but since 2011 it has gotten to a scary degree. The Eagles are entering hot, off of a 7-1 streak to end the season. They have been a very good team, but they really don't have many big wins, and if anything their final win against Dallas showed some flaws that were hidden in big wins against bad teams. They have trouble protecting Foles (or Foles takes too many sacks), and their defense has trouble if they can't get ressure.
The Matchup: I don't have Football Outsiders premium, so I can't see their home/road splits for the Saints (and if I did, I probably wouldn't put stats they give behind a paywall here), so I can only go by their overall season stats. I would assume they are worse across the board at home. The Eagles bad pass defense (25th by DVOA) is not a good matchup against the #3 passing offense, but that passing offense is worse at home, and the Eagles pass defense has gotten better week by week over the season. The more interesting matchups come on the other side. The Eagles offense big weakness is their o-line, which has allowed way too much pressure on Foles. Well, the Saints are 3rd in adjusted sack rate, and they can easily pressure Foles a lot in this game. Both the Saints defense and Eagles offense struggles in the red zone, and I would think the unit that overcomes its problems there will win the game. The Saints rush defense is better in advanced statistics than it is in conventional ones, but LeSean McCoy can still have a good game.
The Pick: It is odd to think this about the Saints, but I don't see them winning a high scoring game. I can see them winning a lower scoring one, though. First, their defense is decidedly better than the Eagles defense, despite the recent improvement by Philadelphia on that side. The Saints best chance really could be their pace. They specialize on having long, drawn-out drives on the offensive side, while the Eagles allow long drives. They can easily shorten this game to less than 10 possessions despite how quickly the Eagles play on offense. The Saints are not great on the road, but they do have some nice matchups edges here with their pass rush against the Eagles porous o-line and Foles who doesn't fare well against 4-5 man pressure. I hate to use motivation to pick these games, but the Saints have heard all week how bad they are on the road, and how the franchise has never won a playoff game on the road. That all said, I would love to pick the Saints, but those season-long numbers on the road vs. at home speak numbers. The Saints screen and YAC parts of the offense don't work as well on the road. The line is pretty low giving some value for Philadelphia, and I think they pull it out.
The State of the Teams: The Chargers enter the playoffs with the longest winning streak (4 games). That hasn't led to much success for the team holding that distinction in recent years (Broncos last year, Patriots the two years before, the Chargers in 2009), but the 4-game win streak doesn't compare to those (11, 8, 8, 11 games). The Chargers offense comes in playing exceedingly well, but because they limit the game (something odd for offense-heavy teams), they never end up really scoring that much. The Chargers defense is not good, and they're coming off a low with needing some help to beat a team playing its backups. The Bengals are probably ruing their OT loss to Miami, or their partially flukey loss in Pittsburgh as it cost them the #2 seed. They do enter 8-0 at home, and while I won't go through the whole process like I did with the Saints, they have been dominant in most of those games, scoring 49, 42, 42, 41 and 34 points in their last five home games. The Bengals are reasonably healthy, getting both TEs back this week and possibly Terrence Newman. The weather is expected to be quite poor. Not all that cold (especially relative to what is going to happen later on Sunday), but with rain and snow.
The Matchup: This game really comes down to the Chargers offense (#2 in the NFL) against the Bengals defense (#5 in the NFL - better than that most likely at home). The Bengals have help up very well despite losing Leon Hall and Geno Atkins. Their pass rush has dropped since Atkins went out, but not by all that much and their depth in the secondary and their linebacker play has picked up for it. The Bengals are excellent covering #1 and #2 receivers, and TEs, which could give a problem to the Chargers. The one bright spot for San Diego is the Bengals relative weakness against RBs in the passing game, and the fact that the Chargers use Danny Woodhead, a lot. The Chargers have a lot of long sustained drives, but too many of them end in field goals, while the Bengals are a Top-10 red zone defense. On the other side, the Chargers have the worst defense by DVOA, and while the Bengals are just average, they have the ability to play better. Dalton has had some terrible games, but he's generally been good. These teams did meet a month ago in San Diego, a game which Cincinnati won 17-10. This will probably be higher scoring, but since the Chargers love long drives, on offense and defense, it might not be.
The Pick: Cincinnati is better in almost every way. Even San Diego's biggest strength (their pass offense), a matches up with Cincinnati's biggest strength (pass defense). The Bengals are even better on Special Teams. And this is all stats that don't even adjust for the fact that the Bengals are at home this week and are undefeated at home, playing really well each game. The line is high, though. The Chargers have only lost one game this year by more than a TD, an 8-point loss to Denver. They did lose this very Cincinnati team by a TD, but the Chargers generally have been competitive in their losses. They rarely get beat by a lot mainly because they shorten the games in terms of number of drives so that it is hard to get too far ahead. The line is high, and I would love it if it was -6.5, but I think the Bengals are better, and the time is right for them to finally win a playoff game in the Marvin Lewis era.
The State of the Teams: Aaron Rodgers is back. That is a good thing because Aaron Rodgers is fun to watch, and it allowed the Packers to win this game, win their division and host a game in the substantially-below-freezing cold. Of course, it also makes looking at the Packers offense really tough since the stats I use don't have it broken down (they do, but again, if its behind a paywall on Outsiders' it's not right for me to use it here). The Packers enter off a great win, but they needed some good fortune (including a very lucky TD off a Rodgers' fumble) to beat a mediocre Bears team. The 49ers enter really strongly. Not only are they playing a team they have beaten three straight times, all in different ways, but they have won 6 straight games and since Michael Crabtree returned their offense has began to resemble the dynamic unit that led them to a Super Bowl appearance last year. Kaepernick still hasn't reached that level, but they no longer are struggling to get to 300 yards on offense anymore.
The Matchup: As I said, it is hard to really break down the Packers offensive DVOA and stuff since half the season they did not have Aaron Rodgers (or Randall Cobb, who is important as well). On the other side, the 49ers didn't have Aldon Smith for 6 games either, so their defensive numbers are depressed. The 49ers didn't have a Top-10 defense by DVOA. They were slightly better against the pass than the run, which helps against Green Bay, but the 49ers defense did well when broken down per drive. They force a lot of punts, are low-end Top-10 in the red zone. The one thing they don't do very well is rush the passer, but the Packers don't protect well either, so those weaknesses are a wash. The other side is more interesting not only because their Outsiders' numbers are more real. The Packers defense is bad, and is now playing without Clay Matthews. There is nothing the Packers defense does above average. Nothing. They are Bottom-5 in most areas. It shows too. They give up a boatload of points, rarely force turnovers, are not great in the red zone. The one area by DVOA that they are decent in is that they rank #10 against 'other WRs' (not #1 or #2), which is pretty useless here since the 49ers rarely use 3-WR sets. The 49ers defense actually grades out well by DVOA (a totally surprising 4th in pass offense - which I thought was a misprint). So much of that is due to playing a ridiculously tough slate of defenses. There's really no good matchup for the Packers defense.
The Pick: So after spending a lot of words saying why this is a terrible matchup, will I do what I did in the Saints-Eagles part and pick the Packers to win? No, I won't. The ridiculous weather even favors a run-first, more physical team like the 49ers. With Lacy, the Packers are more ready to win that type of game, but they don't have the defense for it, and Lacy's hobbled ankle won't feel too good in -15 wind chill. Rodgers looked rusty against Chicago, but this isn't even about Rodgers. That defense is just too bad to win these types of games, or at least pick them to win with any confidence. Aaron Rodgers is a special player, but as we've seen in all three playoff losses in the Rodgers era ('09 to Arizona, '11 to the Giants, '12 to San Francisco), their defense will let them down.
Enjoy the Games!!!
(A5) Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) @ (A4) Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
Sat. 4:35 - NBC | Kansas City -1.5
The State of the Teams: The Chiefs enter this game on a low of a 2-5 finish after a 9-0 start (the worst ever finish for a team that finished 9-0), but on the high of nearly winning a game playing just two starters against a team playing for its playoff life. The Chiefs are basically the reverse of what they were early in the season. The offense has stayed pretty consistent but definitely got better as the year along. The defense, in large part due to injuries to Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, fell apart after a great start to become a decidedly mediocre unit. Houston is expected to play, which will help pump life into a listless pass rush. The Colts, on the other side, come in off of three complete games. In the immediate aftermath of the Reggie Wayne injury the Colts struggled mightily, but have righted themselves by stopping their abashed commitment to the run and letting Luck loose. The defense has also allowed just 20 combined points over their last three games. This is an odd situation for the Colts, to actually enter a playoff tournament playing really well.
The Matchup: These teams played just two weeks ago, and the Colts won relatively easily. They won in Kansas City, shutting down an offense that had scored 80 points in the previous two games and allowing just 7 points. Of course, there seems to be little correlation in recent years from regular season results to playoff rematches. That doesn't mean the Chiefs will win (the Texans certainly played the same in their regular season and playoff losses to New England last year), but doesn't mean the Colts will win. First, the Chiefs have some of their horses back, like Houston and Brandon Albert. The biggest individual unit mismatches are in the Chiefs favor. The Chiefs had the #2 rushing DVOA in the NFL, while the Colts were #22 against the run. The other unit vs. unit matchups are pretty even, but that one is jarring. The other edge is the Chiefs in Special Teams. They were the #1 Special Teams by DVOA, mainly because of their returning proficiency. The Colts aren't bad like they were in the Manning era, but they have been below average covering kicks. The Colts play enough receivers in most of their plays to get some good matchups with the lower depth of the Chiefs secondary, which is necessary, since the Chiefs are good against #1 and #2 receivers. In the end, the Colts scored 23 points because they got an uncharacteristically sloppy game from the Chiefs, and had two hard to repeat long Donald Brown TD. The game itself was closer than the 23-7 score.
The Pick: The Chiefs have lost their last 8 playoff games, three of which were to the Colts (1995, 2003, 2006). This very matchup started off the 2006 playoffs, a nice little de-ja-vu for Colts fans. That said, I do like the Chiefs here. The Chiefs have the one largest unit vs. unit advantage, with their #2 rush offense against a poor rush defense. They also have both edge rushers for the first time since Week 11, which should help them get pressure on Andrew Luck. The Colts have risen to the occasion this season against good teams, and that could certainly continue, but the matchups just don't favor the Colts here. They have to hope that their high-variance team (3rd highest offensive variance, the highest defensive variance) hits both of its high marks today, and that isn't all that likely. I hate picking against this Colts team, mainly because they've done some incredible things, but this team still has too many holes and a good, balanced team like Kansas City should take advantage of them.
Chiefs 27 Colts 21 (KC -3)
(N6) New Orleans Saints (11-5) @ (N3) Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
Sat. 8:05 - NBC | Philadelphia -3
The State of the Teams: Do you know that the Saints aren't great on the road? No, well let me tell you about it. At home, they were 8-0, scoring 272 points and allowing 125. If you take their home numbers are double them (essentially a 16-game season at home), they score 545 points, allow 250, gain 7,092 yards and allow 4,324. Basically that would make them the greatest team of all time. On the road, they are decidedly mediocre in every way. If they played a 16-game road season, they score 284 points, allow 358, gain 5,690 yards and allow 5,458 yards. The most points they allowed at home was 17. The fewest points they allowed on the road was 14. The fewest points they scored at home was 23. They only crossed that number twice on the road. This may have not been true early in the Brees/Payton era, but since 2011 it has gotten to a scary degree. The Eagles are entering hot, off of a 7-1 streak to end the season. They have been a very good team, but they really don't have many big wins, and if anything their final win against Dallas showed some flaws that were hidden in big wins against bad teams. They have trouble protecting Foles (or Foles takes too many sacks), and their defense has trouble if they can't get ressure.
The Matchup: I don't have Football Outsiders premium, so I can't see their home/road splits for the Saints (and if I did, I probably wouldn't put stats they give behind a paywall here), so I can only go by their overall season stats. I would assume they are worse across the board at home. The Eagles bad pass defense (25th by DVOA) is not a good matchup against the #3 passing offense, but that passing offense is worse at home, and the Eagles pass defense has gotten better week by week over the season. The more interesting matchups come on the other side. The Eagles offense big weakness is their o-line, which has allowed way too much pressure on Foles. Well, the Saints are 3rd in adjusted sack rate, and they can easily pressure Foles a lot in this game. Both the Saints defense and Eagles offense struggles in the red zone, and I would think the unit that overcomes its problems there will win the game. The Saints rush defense is better in advanced statistics than it is in conventional ones, but LeSean McCoy can still have a good game.
The Pick: It is odd to think this about the Saints, but I don't see them winning a high scoring game. I can see them winning a lower scoring one, though. First, their defense is decidedly better than the Eagles defense, despite the recent improvement by Philadelphia on that side. The Saints best chance really could be their pace. They specialize on having long, drawn-out drives on the offensive side, while the Eagles allow long drives. They can easily shorten this game to less than 10 possessions despite how quickly the Eagles play on offense. The Saints are not great on the road, but they do have some nice matchups edges here with their pass rush against the Eagles porous o-line and Foles who doesn't fare well against 4-5 man pressure. I hate to use motivation to pick these games, but the Saints have heard all week how bad they are on the road, and how the franchise has never won a playoff game on the road. That all said, I would love to pick the Saints, but those season-long numbers on the road vs. at home speak numbers. The Saints screen and YAC parts of the offense don't work as well on the road. The line is pretty low giving some value for Philadelphia, and I think they pull it out.
Saints 23 Eagles 28 (PHI -3)
(A6) San Diego Chargers (9-7) @ (A3) Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)
Sun. 1:05 - CBS | Cincinnati -7
The State of the Teams: The Chargers enter the playoffs with the longest winning streak (4 games). That hasn't led to much success for the team holding that distinction in recent years (Broncos last year, Patriots the two years before, the Chargers in 2009), but the 4-game win streak doesn't compare to those (11, 8, 8, 11 games). The Chargers offense comes in playing exceedingly well, but because they limit the game (something odd for offense-heavy teams), they never end up really scoring that much. The Chargers defense is not good, and they're coming off a low with needing some help to beat a team playing its backups. The Bengals are probably ruing their OT loss to Miami, or their partially flukey loss in Pittsburgh as it cost them the #2 seed. They do enter 8-0 at home, and while I won't go through the whole process like I did with the Saints, they have been dominant in most of those games, scoring 49, 42, 42, 41 and 34 points in their last five home games. The Bengals are reasonably healthy, getting both TEs back this week and possibly Terrence Newman. The weather is expected to be quite poor. Not all that cold (especially relative to what is going to happen later on Sunday), but with rain and snow.
The Matchup: This game really comes down to the Chargers offense (#2 in the NFL) against the Bengals defense (#5 in the NFL - better than that most likely at home). The Bengals have help up very well despite losing Leon Hall and Geno Atkins. Their pass rush has dropped since Atkins went out, but not by all that much and their depth in the secondary and their linebacker play has picked up for it. The Bengals are excellent covering #1 and #2 receivers, and TEs, which could give a problem to the Chargers. The one bright spot for San Diego is the Bengals relative weakness against RBs in the passing game, and the fact that the Chargers use Danny Woodhead, a lot. The Chargers have a lot of long sustained drives, but too many of them end in field goals, while the Bengals are a Top-10 red zone defense. On the other side, the Chargers have the worst defense by DVOA, and while the Bengals are just average, they have the ability to play better. Dalton has had some terrible games, but he's generally been good. These teams did meet a month ago in San Diego, a game which Cincinnati won 17-10. This will probably be higher scoring, but since the Chargers love long drives, on offense and defense, it might not be.
The Pick: Cincinnati is better in almost every way. Even San Diego's biggest strength (their pass offense), a matches up with Cincinnati's biggest strength (pass defense). The Bengals are even better on Special Teams. And this is all stats that don't even adjust for the fact that the Bengals are at home this week and are undefeated at home, playing really well each game. The line is high, though. The Chargers have only lost one game this year by more than a TD, an 8-point loss to Denver. They did lose this very Cincinnati team by a TD, but the Chargers generally have been competitive in their losses. They rarely get beat by a lot mainly because they shorten the games in terms of number of drives so that it is hard to get too far ahead. The line is high, and I would love it if it was -6.5, but I think the Bengals are better, and the time is right for them to finally win a playoff game in the Marvin Lewis era.
Chargers 17 Bengals 28 (CIN -7)
(N5) San Francisco 49ers (12-4) @ (N4) Green Bay Packers (8-7-1)
Sun. 4:35 - FOX | San Francisco -2.5
The State of the Teams: Aaron Rodgers is back. That is a good thing because Aaron Rodgers is fun to watch, and it allowed the Packers to win this game, win their division and host a game in the substantially-below-freezing cold. Of course, it also makes looking at the Packers offense really tough since the stats I use don't have it broken down (they do, but again, if its behind a paywall on Outsiders' it's not right for me to use it here). The Packers enter off a great win, but they needed some good fortune (including a very lucky TD off a Rodgers' fumble) to beat a mediocre Bears team. The 49ers enter really strongly. Not only are they playing a team they have beaten three straight times, all in different ways, but they have won 6 straight games and since Michael Crabtree returned their offense has began to resemble the dynamic unit that led them to a Super Bowl appearance last year. Kaepernick still hasn't reached that level, but they no longer are struggling to get to 300 yards on offense anymore.
The Matchup: As I said, it is hard to really break down the Packers offensive DVOA and stuff since half the season they did not have Aaron Rodgers (or Randall Cobb, who is important as well). On the other side, the 49ers didn't have Aldon Smith for 6 games either, so their defensive numbers are depressed. The 49ers didn't have a Top-10 defense by DVOA. They were slightly better against the pass than the run, which helps against Green Bay, but the 49ers defense did well when broken down per drive. They force a lot of punts, are low-end Top-10 in the red zone. The one thing they don't do very well is rush the passer, but the Packers don't protect well either, so those weaknesses are a wash. The other side is more interesting not only because their Outsiders' numbers are more real. The Packers defense is bad, and is now playing without Clay Matthews. There is nothing the Packers defense does above average. Nothing. They are Bottom-5 in most areas. It shows too. They give up a boatload of points, rarely force turnovers, are not great in the red zone. The one area by DVOA that they are decent in is that they rank #10 against 'other WRs' (not #1 or #2), which is pretty useless here since the 49ers rarely use 3-WR sets. The 49ers defense actually grades out well by DVOA (a totally surprising 4th in pass offense - which I thought was a misprint). So much of that is due to playing a ridiculously tough slate of defenses. There's really no good matchup for the Packers defense.
The Pick: So after spending a lot of words saying why this is a terrible matchup, will I do what I did in the Saints-Eagles part and pick the Packers to win? No, I won't. The ridiculous weather even favors a run-first, more physical team like the 49ers. With Lacy, the Packers are more ready to win that type of game, but they don't have the defense for it, and Lacy's hobbled ankle won't feel too good in -15 wind chill. Rodgers looked rusty against Chicago, but this isn't even about Rodgers. That defense is just too bad to win these types of games, or at least pick them to win with any confidence. Aaron Rodgers is a special player, but as we've seen in all three playoff losses in the Rodgers era ('09 to Arizona, '11 to the Giants, '12 to San Francisco), their defense will let them down.
49ers 26 Packers 17 (SF -2.5)
Enjoy the Games!!!
