Yes, it is back for the 4th time. The Annual Top 200 Players in the NFL list. A few housekeeping notes before I start:
1.) Huge hat tip and credit given to Football Outsiders. As far as I know, they were doing advanced proprietary (as in, not calculatable by an, no pun intended, outsider) for football before anyone else. In recent years, sites like Pro Football Focus are becoming increasingly popular, but I'm a Football Outsiders loyalist. Their stats are great, their numbers are great to debate about, and their annual Football Outsiders Almanac is brilliant. I couldn't even think about doing this list without it. I use and cite a lot of their statistics in the list. Here's a quick rundown of what they all mean (but really, just use their site).
3.) The list is not based solely upon 2012 performance. What a player does in 2011, 2010 and even before matters. Of course, a player great in 2012 but bad in 2011 would be ranked ahead of the reverse. What this basically means is that just because a guy like Greg Toler was quite good in 2012 after being middling his whole doesn't mean he will make the list over a guy like Cortland Finnegan, who was worse than Toler in 2012.
That's about it, let's get to the list.
200.) Robert McClain (CB-ATL)
Every year there are a few great nickelbacks in the NFL (oddly, there are nary a one great nickelback in the music industry). Last years ones drop off (hello, Alterraun Verner) and new ones crop up. Well, here's a new one. Robert McClain, in what was a packed secondary in Atlanta, rose up and performed brilliantly in the slot. He had the 3rd highest success rate (64%) and the top yards per pass allowed (4.4 ypa). Those are ridiculous stats. There is no chance, in what is a far emptier secondary, he does those numbers again, but it was fun while it lasted.
199.) Janoris Jenkins (CB-STL)
Jenkins started the season slowly, but starting with his breakout game against Arizona where he returned two picks for scores, Jenkins ended the season playing really well. His overall FO numbers are quite good (33rd in ypa allowed), especially when looking solely at the second half of the season. Corners are rarely good in their 1st season, so Jenkins above average play is something to really build off of.
198.) Brandon Spikes (ILB-NE)
The Patriots are slowly trying to build their defense to emulate what it was back in their title winning days. Those defenses were always great against the run, and Spikes' value lies there. He is quite awful in pass defense (although his stats are merely below average), Spikes has become one of the best run stopping linebackers in the NFL. Spikes lack of value in pass defense will limit his eventual ceiling, but the Patriots have other ways to attempt to fix that.
197.) Chris Johnson (RB-TEN)
Chris Johnson once again was stopped behind the line too much, had too many plays of negative three or four yards, but as always, some of that is terrible blocking. Some of it is bad playcalling. And some of it is Johnson. But mixed in a season that had a fair amount of terrible games (Week 1, he had four yards on 11 carries), he had a great middle. Johnson still has value in the passing game, and if Jake Locker will ever work, he needs the Chris Johnson that roamed from 2010. He's not as far off from that as many think.
196.) Mike Adams (S-DEN)
Rahim Moore is the more famous Broncos safety, for reasons I never want to remember, and while he was generally good throughout the season, Mike Adams was the real glue on the backend of the Broncos secondary. Adams was used a lot like the Giants used Antrel Rolle, to do a little bit of everything. He ranked in the Top 30 for secondary players in allowing yards on runs and passes in his direction. He is a sure tackler in a secondary that doesn't really shine in that area. If only he was the guy retreating on that cold night in January.
195.) Brandon Myers (TE-NYG)
Brandon Myers used his excellent season in Oakland where Carson Palmer force-fed him passes due to the revolving door at receiver into joining the Giants white-guy TE pipeline. Eli Manning has always been good to his TEs, and Myers should do great in that offense where, unlike Oakland, there are receivers good enough to constantly drag coverage away from Myers. His blocking is even good. The Giants always seemed to unearth TEs in the draft, but now they've poached a nice one.
194.) Stephen Bowen (DE-WAS)
With Brian Orakpo and Adam Carriker out for much of the year, the Redskins needed other pieces to step up, and Stephen Bowen responded with an excellent year. He had two monsters suck blockers away from him, and was put in position to make plays and that he did. He was in the Top 3 of both success rate and ypa allowed on runs. Of course, this is ridiculously better than last year, so Bowen's rise in 2013 probably was somewhat of a fluke.
193.) Scott Wells (C-STL)
Scott Wells didn't play much in 2012, but when he did, Wells was great. Sam Bradford's numbers in the games that Wells played were far better than when he was out, and while that isn't total causation, it makes this ranking sound better. Wells had been one of the few men to block for Aaron Rodgers not to suffer injury after injury, so it is reasonable to suggest he'll never be as injured as he was in 2012 again, and if that is the case, Bradford would be one step closer to that breakthrough he seemed to always be on the cusp of.
192.) Denarrio Alexander (WR-SD)
During Philip Rivers' time in San Diego, there's been a free flow of high-DVOA receivers. Alexander is the latest in them. He doesn't have the multi-year track record that Vincent Jackson had, but he doesn't have the injury concerns that Malcolm Floyd had (Floyd was equally DVOA crazy last year). Alexander had a ridiculous end to the season, and his catch rate on downfield throws was fantastic. Considering that Rivers himself should be better in 2013, Alexander should as well.
191.) Jonathan Goodwin (C-SF)
Jonathan Goodwin didn't have a blown block that led to a sack (courtesy of Football Outsiders Game charting). There's not many centers that can say that, and the ones that can usually play for QBs that aren't as sackable as Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick. Neither one is exactly Aaron Rodgers in teh 'hold-onto-the-ball' category, but Goodwin's feat remains great.
190.) Tyson Clabo (T-MIA)
Tyson Clabo is the latest departure from what was once a rock-solid stable offensive line in Atlanta. He enters Miami off his worst season of the past four or five, but he still doesn't allow too many sacks (especially when you factor in how many times the Falcons threw it last year). He avoids penalties pretty well to boot. His best days are almost obviously behind him, but he's been one of the more consistent RTs in the NFL over the past half decade.
189.) Anthony Castonzo (T-IND)
Castonzo blew a lot of blocks according to Football Outsiders. Of course, he was left on an island all the time by a coordinator who loved to leave no one in to block (and when he did, it was usually to help RT Winston Justice). Castonzo has a tough job blocking the blind side of a neo-Roethlisberger in Luck, and much like Ben's parade of LTs, his numbers don't look good. His isolated performance, though, does.
188.) Carlos Dunlap (DE-CIN)
Carlos Dunlap was used primarily as a 3rd-down free rusher on the Bengals dominant D-Line, and despite those limitations, he performed well enough that Cincinnati essentially chose to keep him instead of Michael Johnson. Oddly, it is his performance against the run that grades out better than against the pass, but if you prorate his limited sacks over the amount normally faced by a three-down player, his pass rushing numbers start to look a little more diruptive. All I have to say is in choosing a U of Florida pass rusher in 2010, the Bengals chose right and the Pats chose very wrong.
187.) Steven Jackson (RB-ATL)
Despite getting older, and despite being the focus of every opponents' gameplan to stop the Rams, Steven Jackson has continued to play solidly. Now he joins a team where he will be the 4th player of concern for opposing defenses, but also one where the line hasn't allowed for a good run game since about 2009. Jackson should be better, the Falcons run game should be better, but I don't think 1+1=3 here in Atlanta.
186.) Greg Jennings (WR-MIN)
Greg Jennings should be exhibit A of how fast a receiver can fall. Jennings was great in 2011, he was marginal in 2012. This is a ranking based partly on past performance from before the 2012 season, and partly on the idea that Jennings was never fully healthy in 2012. I don't see how going from Aaron Rodgers to Christian Ponder can't possibly help his numbers either. Good chance he's off the list in 2014.
185.) Antonio Gates (TE-SD)
Gates once again battled injuries, which has been a recurring theme since his incredilbe, injury-shortened 2010 season. He's still managed to catch over 60% of his passes and 7 TDs as Philip Rivers' main red zone target. Not a lot to say here other than enjoy the last few years of a future Hall of Famer, as we all should with any future Hall of Famer in his final years.
184.) Bernard Pollard (S-TEN)
If Bernard Pollard only suited up against the Patriots, he would be in the Top-50. Instead, he does play the other 30 teams in the NFL, and his performance is never as impactful against those. He's still a quality player that has turned from a running trivia answer ('Who tore Tom Brady's ACL?') into a great run defender at safety (#13 in yards per play allowed against the run) and an increasingly decent cover man.
183.) Will Beatty (T-NYG)
Eli Manning makes his blindside protector look better. How else do you explain David Diehl being a two-time Super Bowl winning Left Tackle. Still, Will Beatty was really good in pass protection last year. He was finally healthy, and going forward, he'll need to stay so as Chris Snee and David Baas' careers end slowly.
182.) Maurice Jones-Drew (RB-JAX)
The negatives are he had a strange, mysterious injury that probably still hasn't been fully explained (nor has the injury fully healed enough for MoJo to actually want to play for the Jags again), but when you have a DVOA around zero playing for a putrid team and an even worse offense, that shows that you still have something to give. MoJo Drew has definitely passed his peak, and his size has always made him a lingering injury waiting to happen, but for one of the most consistent running backs, it will take more than one strange year to knock him off completely.
181.) Vontae Davis (CB-IND)
Vontae Davis' numbers were not good last year. There are two reasons why he makes this list. First, this list isn't purely based off of 2012 performance, and secondly he got better when he returned from injury (as FO notes, his success rate rose from 22%, which is awful, to 53%, which is solid). Vontae Davis needs to be the guy he was at the end in Miami and was late last season going forward to stabilize that defense.
180.) Keenan Lewis (CB-NO)
Keenan Lewis was really good last year against both the run and pass. There is a long history of corners in Pittsburgh playing well there and leaving, and doing little in their next location. Some of those have even returned to the Three Rivers in relative disgrace, like Bryant McFadden and William Gay. All I'm saying is now that Keenan Lewis deservedly earned himself a contract, I wouldn't be surprised if he does nothing in Rob Ryan's overhyped defense and returns to Heinz Field in 2015 with his tail between his legs.
179.) Dannell Ellerbe (ILB-MIA)
Dannell Ellerbe, playing in the position that pumps up your status more than anything else (playing ILB next to Ray Lewis), was somehow underrated in his 2012 performance. Football Outsiders ranks him in the Top-20 in both success rate and ypa allowed on defense, and he also was a valuable blitz weapon. He's changing to a 4-3, but that transition shouldn't be what holds him back. What does is the same thing that held Jamie Sharper, Edgerton Hartwell and Bart Scott back: playing next to Ray Lewis and in front of Ed Reed is a lot easier than not doing those things.
178.) Chris Canty (DT-BAL)
He's an aging, sure tackling, penetrating, slightly injury prone tackle who is leaving one haven of defensive (line) play in New York to another in Baltimore. This was one of my favorite underrated moves of the offseason. Canty was lost in New York with the media attention given to the more sack-happy (and quotable) lineman in New York, but he won't be in Baltimore.
177.) Wesley Woodyard (ILB-DEN)
So yes, Woodyard wasn't great against the run, but with Von Miller (who's a little bit higher up this list) doing his thing on the other side, it didn't much matter. Woodyard's true value was being awesome against the pass. He was a Top-10 linebacker against the pass in both of Football Outsiders' main two stats. Woodyard is given a lot of responsibility in that defense, especially on 3rd Down when Miller becomes a de-facto lineman, and in 2012, he was great at it.
176.) Nick Hardwick (C-SD)
Nick Hardwick has been playing for a long time. So long, he can remember when San Diego was routinely being mentioned as 'the most talented team in the NFL' because, and this is conjecture, they had a proclivity for beating teams quarterbacked by Peyton Manning. Well, Nick Hardwick wasn't really mentioned as one of those people making the Chargers so damn talented, but he's still here and he's still playing really well. It's hard to imagine, but his ability to stuff tackles is the only thing stopping Philip Rivers from being maimed by now.
175.) Chris Snee (G-NYG)
Once upon a time, the Giants fielded the NFL's best o-line. Those were different times, when Aaron Rodgers was an unknown and Tiki Barber was the Barber twin far more likely to make the Hall of Fame. Chris Snee is the only remnant from those halcyon times left, and he continues to play well. He was penalized just four times, and allowed just two sacks, against some really good interior lineman. Chris Snee won't be remembered as fondly as Shaun O'Hara, but Tom Coughlin's son-in-law is damn good, historically too.
174.) Terrance Knighton (DT-DEN)
The Broncos were really good against the run, getting some unexpected performances out of the likes of Kevin Vickerson and the ancient Justin Bannan. Well, Bannan retired, and the Broncos replaced him with one of the best run-stuffers in the NFL. He's lost trying to get to the QB, but he ranked #5 in stop rate and #16 in ypr allowed. All he needs is to do that again, and the Broncos would have upgraded what was already a very good run defense.
173.) Jurrell Casey (DT-TEN)
The Titans are still built in a quasi-Jeff Fisher way, and Casey's disruptive play at Tackle is something Fisher would have done wonders with. Munchak is doing whatever is necessary, though. Casey's numbers aren't fantastic on FO, but his age and his activity (making a play on 9% of the snaps he was on the field for - really high for a defensive tackle) make him more valuable than the numbers would say.
172.) Cam Newton (QB-CAR)
Cam Newton didn't have a sophomore slump. He just didn't have a sophomore bump. Too many times we expect players to get better every year when they are young, and these expectations are even higher on QBs. Almost no great QB got appreciably better in his second season outside of Peyton Manning. Cam Newton's slightly better play is a good sign. He held his value even though offensive levels dropped leaguewide. He was never going to match those inflated rookie numbers, but protecting the ball even better without any sort of run game is still an improvement.
171.) Jabaal Sheard (DE-CLE)
The Mike Holmgren era in Cleveland came and went before you could really analyze and judge what happened, and considering Mike Lombardi has never been a good GM, his almost sure impending failure will probably let Holmgren off the hook for whatever bad decisions he made. All this is to say that Jabaal Sheard was a darn good decision. Sheard was a Top-25 lineman against the run in FO's stats, while also getting 7 sacks and 16 more hurries. He even tipped four balls, which is good in a world where you remember that JJ Watt is not a human being.
170.) Cortland Finnegan (CB-STL)
Cortland Finnegan isn't where he was back in his late-Titans prime (him and everyone on the 2008 Titans defense were fantastic), but considering how often he gets stuck on an island against the opponents #1, his numbers aren't all that bad. Fisher gave most of his safety support to Jenkins and Bradley Fletcher. Finnegan had to play against the top receivers and did a decent job at it. Plus, the 14 passed defended make up for some of the average rate stats.
169.) Randall Cobb (WR-GB)
Randall Cobb was awesome by DVOA and DYAR standards. He also had a great catch rate. So why is he so low? Well, Brandon Stokley was all of these things as well, and isn't on the Top-200. Randall Cobb is used really well by Mike McCarthy, but slot receivers like Cobbster have put up great advanced stats for years. It's easier to do what Randall Cobb does when you have Greg Jennings (up till now), Jordy Nelson and James Jones, with Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball. Still, a 77% catch rate on 104 targets is insane.
168.) Jason Peters (T-PHI)
Jason Peters, when healthy, is a Top-5 Left Tackle. Too bad for him he doesn't always stay healthy. Peters has had the unfair task of being Mike Vick's tackle, but luckily for him, he missed out on the more unfair task of protecting the blind side of Nick Foles. Well, he gets that challenge this year. Yes, Peters is one of a few guys on this list who missed serious time in 2012 (in Peters case, the whole season), but again, past performance matters here as well. He's been good in the past and given his age, he should be good again. When he's on the field, at least.
167.) Corey Liuget (DT-SD)
Corey Liuget quietly had a really good second season in the NFL. He was solid against the run, but his real value laid in his pass rush. 7 sacks and 8 tipped balls (again, really good when we don't consider what a Kaiju JJ Watt was), and a ridiculous activity rate for a 3-4 DE in a Watt-less world. The Chargers are building a nice little front-seven on defense, and Liuget is the key.
166.) Brandon Moore (G-NYJ)
Yes, he's currently a free agen
165.) Connor Barwin (OLB-PHI)
Connor Barwin, when you look at the numbers, took a step backwards in 2012 after a nice breakout in 2011. Of course, this was true of every member of the Texans defense not named JJ Watt. However, with Barwin it helps to look deeper. Football Outsiders' noted him in the Top-10 in the league with 14 QB hits, and his 16.5 hurries aren't too shabby either. He was getting pressure, just not finishing the job. That stuff fluctuates, especially with young players as then it is more bad luck and less 'losing a step'.
164.) Dwayne Allen (TE-IND)
When Dwayne Allen was selected in the 3rd round of the 2012 draft, most Colts fans I knew hated the pick. It wasn't so much the choice of Allen, but the choice of another TE after taking Luck's binky Coby Fleener a round earlier. Well, Fleener had an injury plagued rookie season, and Dwayne Allen happened to turn in a damn good rookie campaign at TE. His DVOA was really nice for a high usage TE, as was hist 68% catch rate (which is about 10% higher than Luck's completion to rate to anyone not named Dwayne Allen). Best was his two drops. Dwayne Allen had a really good rookie season. Now it comes to see whether Fleener can reach his level, not vice versa.
163.) Cary Williams (CB-CLE)
Cary Williams had a really nice 2011 season, but struggled for much of 2012 after being forced into the CB1 role with Lardarius Webb's ACL injury. Still, he performed admirably out-of-position and was really nice in their playoff run. His 17 passes defended rank 3rd in the NFL for secondary players, and his tacklins will be a great relief to those Eagles fans that struggled through Asante & Asomugha non-contact combination.
162.) Tony Romo (QB-DAL)
Tony Romo had some nice fantasy numbers, and had more than a few great 4th quarter moments, and kept that team alive in the playoff race. Still, it is hard to get past the lowest y/a of his career along with his highest interception total in years (a league-high 19). Tony Romo is a very good QB. There aren't many established QBs that are ahead of him (there are three rookies that I did rank ahead of him), and the Cowboys probably couldn't get any better QB any time soon, but with his age creeping up there, it might be time to start savoring the memories and not expecting a Super Bowl out of him.
161.) Captain Munnerlyn (CB-CAR)
Captain Munnerlyn is Exhibit A of the variable state of slot-corners in the NFL. Football Outsiders had him ranked #11, #3, #79 and #2 in ypa allowed over the past four years. With the strange retirement of Chris Gamble, Munnerlyn might have to take his slot-corner abilities outside, which should be something to watch in 2013. Not many corners can make that transition, and the Panthers need him to be one of the few who do, considering their other options are people no one has heard of.
160.) Stephen Tulloch (MLB-DET)
Tulloch is the rare pure Cover-2 MLB. He is totally middling against the run, but is great against the pass (Top-20 in both of FO's pass defense stats). He always stays on the field, and is rarely the one giving up big plays. Guys that can cover the field are incredibly important in a division that contains the likes of Kyle Rudolph, Randall Cobb and Jermichael Finley, and despite not being overly fast, Tulloch does a great job on all of them.
159.) Brandon Browner (CB-SEA)
Brandon Browner makes up the less touted half of the Sehawks corner duo, but in a few ways he had a better season in 2012 Sherman. First, he gave up fewer yards per pass and had a higher success rate than Sherman. He also had a higher target rate, making those stats more impressive. However, he was awful against the run; not a huge priority for a corner, but still. Also, he wasn't as impactful in terms of defending passes and interceptions. Sure, those are variable from year-to-year, but having 13 fewer passes defended is substantial.
158.) Marques Colston (WR-NO)
Colston had another stellar season as the WR1 in the Saints offense, with a nice 64% catch rate, and 10 TDs (the second highest total of his career). His advanced stats are below that of his more slot-ish receiving mate in Lance Moore, but Colston's incredible consistency going up against opposing top corners lands him on this list. It's amazing that he's already turning 30, but when you remember that he's been in New Orleans as long as Drew Brees has, it is less so.
157.) Andre Smith (T-CIN)
Andre Smith will probably forever be known for his man-boobs flopping during his private workout before the 2009 draft. That will be the immediate picture in the head of any NFL fan of Andre Smith, no matter how consistently good he is. No one will mistake Andre Smith for Joe Thomas, or even Sebastian Vollmer (considering Smith plays RT), but he's one of the NFL's best at RT. He rarely gives up sacks and is a monster in the run game. That was his forte coming out of Alabama, and unlike so many of Nick Saban's Alabama players, his NFL play has come close to matching his Crimson Tide play.
156.) Glover Quin (S-DET)
Glover Quin was the only member of the Houston Texans secondary, apart from Kareem Jackson who got a lot better, to hold his value in 2012 from 2011. Quin was a Top-30 safety in both run defense categories on Football Outsiders, and a Top-20 performer against the pass. Not many reach both levels. Detroit is really depending on Quin being that good once again for them, as they've needed a solid secondary player for about 15 years now. Quin has that ability.
155.) Joe Haden (CB-CLE)
Haden's numbers weren't great, and his four game PED suspension is an issue, but the promise he showed as a rookie is still there. Corners take time to develop, and he has to go against some good receivers in that division. Ray Horton's defense asks a lot of corners, but I do think Haden is up for the task.
154.) Kareem Jackson (CB-HOU)
Kareem Jackson was all sorts of terrible in 2011. There's a reason why corners shouldn't be judged on their rookie season, even if that rookie season is as bad as Jackson's was. Kareem Jackson wasn't run-of-the-mill bad, but 'you get an average of 11.5 yards when you throw at him' bad. Fast forward 16-games and you only get 7.1 yards, which might sound bad but it is good for 29th in the NFL. Couple that with the league's 12th best success rate and 19 passes defended and you get one of the biggest surprises of the 2012 season.
153.) Heath Miller (TE-PIT)
Heath Miller, who's been in the league since 2005, just had his best receiving season. He had a career high in yards and TDs. It's always seemed odd to me that Heath Miller didn't have more TDs than he had (two each in 2010 and 2011), but he was Ben's main red zone target in 2012. His blocking has notably gotten worse over time, but he's as good a receiving target at 30 as he was at 25, which is phenomenal.
152.) Greg Hardy (DE-CAR)
Greg Hardy probably isn't as famous or well-perceived as Charles Johnson, but he had a great 2012 season with 11 sacks, 19 hurries and above average play against the run. Hardy is just 25, and pass rushers age well, so he could be on the cusp of a long and productive career in Carolina. The Pannthers pass rush is quietly really good, and with Hardy playing this way and the additions in the offseason, it should stay that way.
151.) Eric Berry (S-KC)
Eric Berry is arguably the best safety against the run by Football Outsiders numbers, ranking #2 in stop percentage and #1 in yards allowed for all secondary players. However, the more important job of a safety is to be good against the pass, and while Berry isn't particularly bad against the pass, I'm sure the Chiefs would rather have his skill set reversed. Still, Berry is young and supposedly fully healthy. Great things should still await one of the more talented safeties in the NFL.
1.) Huge hat tip and credit given to Football Outsiders. As far as I know, they were doing advanced proprietary (as in, not calculatable by an, no pun intended, outsider) for football before anyone else. In recent years, sites like Pro Football Focus are becoming increasingly popular, but I'm a Football Outsiders loyalist. Their stats are great, their numbers are great to debate about, and their annual Football Outsiders Almanac is brilliant. I couldn't even think about doing this list without it. I use and cite a lot of their statistics in the list. Here's a quick rundown of what they all mean (but really, just use their site).
- DVOA: A percentage based stat that basically says how many percent better or worse than the average is a player/team/situation. It can be broken down to home/road, by down, by quarter, and even by situation. It's their main stat.
- DYAR: Essentially the counting-version of DVOA, but only for position players. Mostly useful to judge players who attain a whole lot of snaps or datapoints to calculate DVOA.
- Stop: A play by a defensive player (or team) that stops the offense from acheiving a successful play.
- Stop rate: The percentage of plays by a particular defender that are stops.
- Average yards allowed: a defensive stat showing the average yards per play that defender allows on runs or passes that involve him.
- Success Rate: The percentage of passing plays a certain defender is targeted that did not result in a successful play for the offense (so, a success for the defense).
3.) The list is not based solely upon 2012 performance. What a player does in 2011, 2010 and even before matters. Of course, a player great in 2012 but bad in 2011 would be ranked ahead of the reverse. What this basically means is that just because a guy like Greg Toler was quite good in 2012 after being middling his whole doesn't mean he will make the list over a guy like Cortland Finnegan, who was worse than Toler in 2012.
That's about it, let's get to the list.
200.) Robert McClain (CB-ATL)
Every year there are a few great nickelbacks in the NFL (oddly, there are nary a one great nickelback in the music industry). Last years ones drop off (hello, Alterraun Verner) and new ones crop up. Well, here's a new one. Robert McClain, in what was a packed secondary in Atlanta, rose up and performed brilliantly in the slot. He had the 3rd highest success rate (64%) and the top yards per pass allowed (4.4 ypa). Those are ridiculous stats. There is no chance, in what is a far emptier secondary, he does those numbers again, but it was fun while it lasted.
199.) Janoris Jenkins (CB-STL)
Jenkins started the season slowly, but starting with his breakout game against Arizona where he returned two picks for scores, Jenkins ended the season playing really well. His overall FO numbers are quite good (33rd in ypa allowed), especially when looking solely at the second half of the season. Corners are rarely good in their 1st season, so Jenkins above average play is something to really build off of.
198.) Brandon Spikes (ILB-NE)
The Patriots are slowly trying to build their defense to emulate what it was back in their title winning days. Those defenses were always great against the run, and Spikes' value lies there. He is quite awful in pass defense (although his stats are merely below average), Spikes has become one of the best run stopping linebackers in the NFL. Spikes lack of value in pass defense will limit his eventual ceiling, but the Patriots have other ways to attempt to fix that.
197.) Chris Johnson (RB-TEN)
Chris Johnson once again was stopped behind the line too much, had too many plays of negative three or four yards, but as always, some of that is terrible blocking. Some of it is bad playcalling. And some of it is Johnson. But mixed in a season that had a fair amount of terrible games (Week 1, he had four yards on 11 carries), he had a great middle. Johnson still has value in the passing game, and if Jake Locker will ever work, he needs the Chris Johnson that roamed from 2010. He's not as far off from that as many think.
196.) Mike Adams (S-DEN)
Rahim Moore is the more famous Broncos safety, for reasons I never want to remember, and while he was generally good throughout the season, Mike Adams was the real glue on the backend of the Broncos secondary. Adams was used a lot like the Giants used Antrel Rolle, to do a little bit of everything. He ranked in the Top 30 for secondary players in allowing yards on runs and passes in his direction. He is a sure tackler in a secondary that doesn't really shine in that area. If only he was the guy retreating on that cold night in January.
195.) Brandon Myers (TE-NYG)
Brandon Myers used his excellent season in Oakland where Carson Palmer force-fed him passes due to the revolving door at receiver into joining the Giants white-guy TE pipeline. Eli Manning has always been good to his TEs, and Myers should do great in that offense where, unlike Oakland, there are receivers good enough to constantly drag coverage away from Myers. His blocking is even good. The Giants always seemed to unearth TEs in the draft, but now they've poached a nice one.
194.) Stephen Bowen (DE-WAS)
With Brian Orakpo and Adam Carriker out for much of the year, the Redskins needed other pieces to step up, and Stephen Bowen responded with an excellent year. He had two monsters suck blockers away from him, and was put in position to make plays and that he did. He was in the Top 3 of both success rate and ypa allowed on runs. Of course, this is ridiculously better than last year, so Bowen's rise in 2013 probably was somewhat of a fluke.
193.) Scott Wells (C-STL)
Scott Wells didn't play much in 2012, but when he did, Wells was great. Sam Bradford's numbers in the games that Wells played were far better than when he was out, and while that isn't total causation, it makes this ranking sound better. Wells had been one of the few men to block for Aaron Rodgers not to suffer injury after injury, so it is reasonable to suggest he'll never be as injured as he was in 2012 again, and if that is the case, Bradford would be one step closer to that breakthrough he seemed to always be on the cusp of.
192.) Denarrio Alexander (WR-SD)
During Philip Rivers' time in San Diego, there's been a free flow of high-DVOA receivers. Alexander is the latest in them. He doesn't have the multi-year track record that Vincent Jackson had, but he doesn't have the injury concerns that Malcolm Floyd had (Floyd was equally DVOA crazy last year). Alexander had a ridiculous end to the season, and his catch rate on downfield throws was fantastic. Considering that Rivers himself should be better in 2013, Alexander should as well.
191.) Jonathan Goodwin (C-SF)
Jonathan Goodwin didn't have a blown block that led to a sack (courtesy of Football Outsiders Game charting). There's not many centers that can say that, and the ones that can usually play for QBs that aren't as sackable as Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick. Neither one is exactly Aaron Rodgers in teh 'hold-onto-the-ball' category, but Goodwin's feat remains great.
190.) Tyson Clabo (T-MIA)
Tyson Clabo is the latest departure from what was once a rock-solid stable offensive line in Atlanta. He enters Miami off his worst season of the past four or five, but he still doesn't allow too many sacks (especially when you factor in how many times the Falcons threw it last year). He avoids penalties pretty well to boot. His best days are almost obviously behind him, but he's been one of the more consistent RTs in the NFL over the past half decade.
189.) Anthony Castonzo (T-IND)
Castonzo blew a lot of blocks according to Football Outsiders. Of course, he was left on an island all the time by a coordinator who loved to leave no one in to block (and when he did, it was usually to help RT Winston Justice). Castonzo has a tough job blocking the blind side of a neo-Roethlisberger in Luck, and much like Ben's parade of LTs, his numbers don't look good. His isolated performance, though, does.
188.) Carlos Dunlap (DE-CIN)
Carlos Dunlap was used primarily as a 3rd-down free rusher on the Bengals dominant D-Line, and despite those limitations, he performed well enough that Cincinnati essentially chose to keep him instead of Michael Johnson. Oddly, it is his performance against the run that grades out better than against the pass, but if you prorate his limited sacks over the amount normally faced by a three-down player, his pass rushing numbers start to look a little more diruptive. All I have to say is in choosing a U of Florida pass rusher in 2010, the Bengals chose right and the Pats chose very wrong.
187.) Steven Jackson (RB-ATL)
Despite getting older, and despite being the focus of every opponents' gameplan to stop the Rams, Steven Jackson has continued to play solidly. Now he joins a team where he will be the 4th player of concern for opposing defenses, but also one where the line hasn't allowed for a good run game since about 2009. Jackson should be better, the Falcons run game should be better, but I don't think 1+1=3 here in Atlanta.
186.) Greg Jennings (WR-MIN)
Greg Jennings should be exhibit A of how fast a receiver can fall. Jennings was great in 2011, he was marginal in 2012. This is a ranking based partly on past performance from before the 2012 season, and partly on the idea that Jennings was never fully healthy in 2012. I don't see how going from Aaron Rodgers to Christian Ponder can't possibly help his numbers either. Good chance he's off the list in 2014.
185.) Antonio Gates (TE-SD)
Gates once again battled injuries, which has been a recurring theme since his incredilbe, injury-shortened 2010 season. He's still managed to catch over 60% of his passes and 7 TDs as Philip Rivers' main red zone target. Not a lot to say here other than enjoy the last few years of a future Hall of Famer, as we all should with any future Hall of Famer in his final years.
184.) Bernard Pollard (S-TEN)
If Bernard Pollard only suited up against the Patriots, he would be in the Top-50. Instead, he does play the other 30 teams in the NFL, and his performance is never as impactful against those. He's still a quality player that has turned from a running trivia answer ('Who tore Tom Brady's ACL?') into a great run defender at safety (#13 in yards per play allowed against the run) and an increasingly decent cover man.
183.) Will Beatty (T-NYG)
Eli Manning makes his blindside protector look better. How else do you explain David Diehl being a two-time Super Bowl winning Left Tackle. Still, Will Beatty was really good in pass protection last year. He was finally healthy, and going forward, he'll need to stay so as Chris Snee and David Baas' careers end slowly.
182.) Maurice Jones-Drew (RB-JAX)
The negatives are he had a strange, mysterious injury that probably still hasn't been fully explained (nor has the injury fully healed enough for MoJo to actually want to play for the Jags again), but when you have a DVOA around zero playing for a putrid team and an even worse offense, that shows that you still have something to give. MoJo Drew has definitely passed his peak, and his size has always made him a lingering injury waiting to happen, but for one of the most consistent running backs, it will take more than one strange year to knock him off completely.
181.) Vontae Davis (CB-IND)
Vontae Davis' numbers were not good last year. There are two reasons why he makes this list. First, this list isn't purely based off of 2012 performance, and secondly he got better when he returned from injury (as FO notes, his success rate rose from 22%, which is awful, to 53%, which is solid). Vontae Davis needs to be the guy he was at the end in Miami and was late last season going forward to stabilize that defense.
180.) Keenan Lewis (CB-NO)
Keenan Lewis was really good last year against both the run and pass. There is a long history of corners in Pittsburgh playing well there and leaving, and doing little in their next location. Some of those have even returned to the Three Rivers in relative disgrace, like Bryant McFadden and William Gay. All I'm saying is now that Keenan Lewis deservedly earned himself a contract, I wouldn't be surprised if he does nothing in Rob Ryan's overhyped defense and returns to Heinz Field in 2015 with his tail between his legs.
179.) Dannell Ellerbe (ILB-MIA)
Dannell Ellerbe, playing in the position that pumps up your status more than anything else (playing ILB next to Ray Lewis), was somehow underrated in his 2012 performance. Football Outsiders ranks him in the Top-20 in both success rate and ypa allowed on defense, and he also was a valuable blitz weapon. He's changing to a 4-3, but that transition shouldn't be what holds him back. What does is the same thing that held Jamie Sharper, Edgerton Hartwell and Bart Scott back: playing next to Ray Lewis and in front of Ed Reed is a lot easier than not doing those things.
178.) Chris Canty (DT-BAL)
He's an aging, sure tackling, penetrating, slightly injury prone tackle who is leaving one haven of defensive (line) play in New York to another in Baltimore. This was one of my favorite underrated moves of the offseason. Canty was lost in New York with the media attention given to the more sack-happy (and quotable) lineman in New York, but he won't be in Baltimore.
177.) Wesley Woodyard (ILB-DEN)
So yes, Woodyard wasn't great against the run, but with Von Miller (who's a little bit higher up this list) doing his thing on the other side, it didn't much matter. Woodyard's true value was being awesome against the pass. He was a Top-10 linebacker against the pass in both of Football Outsiders' main two stats. Woodyard is given a lot of responsibility in that defense, especially on 3rd Down when Miller becomes a de-facto lineman, and in 2012, he was great at it.
176.) Nick Hardwick (C-SD)
Nick Hardwick has been playing for a long time. So long, he can remember when San Diego was routinely being mentioned as 'the most talented team in the NFL' because, and this is conjecture, they had a proclivity for beating teams quarterbacked by Peyton Manning. Well, Nick Hardwick wasn't really mentioned as one of those people making the Chargers so damn talented, but he's still here and he's still playing really well. It's hard to imagine, but his ability to stuff tackles is the only thing stopping Philip Rivers from being maimed by now.
175.) Chris Snee (G-NYG)
Once upon a time, the Giants fielded the NFL's best o-line. Those were different times, when Aaron Rodgers was an unknown and Tiki Barber was the Barber twin far more likely to make the Hall of Fame. Chris Snee is the only remnant from those halcyon times left, and he continues to play well. He was penalized just four times, and allowed just two sacks, against some really good interior lineman. Chris Snee won't be remembered as fondly as Shaun O'Hara, but Tom Coughlin's son-in-law is damn good, historically too.
174.) Terrance Knighton (DT-DEN)
The Broncos were really good against the run, getting some unexpected performances out of the likes of Kevin Vickerson and the ancient Justin Bannan. Well, Bannan retired, and the Broncos replaced him with one of the best run-stuffers in the NFL. He's lost trying to get to the QB, but he ranked #5 in stop rate and #16 in ypr allowed. All he needs is to do that again, and the Broncos would have upgraded what was already a very good run defense.
173.) Jurrell Casey (DT-TEN)
The Titans are still built in a quasi-Jeff Fisher way, and Casey's disruptive play at Tackle is something Fisher would have done wonders with. Munchak is doing whatever is necessary, though. Casey's numbers aren't fantastic on FO, but his age and his activity (making a play on 9% of the snaps he was on the field for - really high for a defensive tackle) make him more valuable than the numbers would say.
172.) Cam Newton (QB-CAR)
Cam Newton didn't have a sophomore slump. He just didn't have a sophomore bump. Too many times we expect players to get better every year when they are young, and these expectations are even higher on QBs. Almost no great QB got appreciably better in his second season outside of Peyton Manning. Cam Newton's slightly better play is a good sign. He held his value even though offensive levels dropped leaguewide. He was never going to match those inflated rookie numbers, but protecting the ball even better without any sort of run game is still an improvement.
171.) Jabaal Sheard (DE-CLE)
The Mike Holmgren era in Cleveland came and went before you could really analyze and judge what happened, and considering Mike Lombardi has never been a good GM, his almost sure impending failure will probably let Holmgren off the hook for whatever bad decisions he made. All this is to say that Jabaal Sheard was a darn good decision. Sheard was a Top-25 lineman against the run in FO's stats, while also getting 7 sacks and 16 more hurries. He even tipped four balls, which is good in a world where you remember that JJ Watt is not a human being.
170.) Cortland Finnegan (CB-STL)
Cortland Finnegan isn't where he was back in his late-Titans prime (him and everyone on the 2008 Titans defense were fantastic), but considering how often he gets stuck on an island against the opponents #1, his numbers aren't all that bad. Fisher gave most of his safety support to Jenkins and Bradley Fletcher. Finnegan had to play against the top receivers and did a decent job at it. Plus, the 14 passed defended make up for some of the average rate stats.
169.) Randall Cobb (WR-GB)
Randall Cobb was awesome by DVOA and DYAR standards. He also had a great catch rate. So why is he so low? Well, Brandon Stokley was all of these things as well, and isn't on the Top-200. Randall Cobb is used really well by Mike McCarthy, but slot receivers like Cobbster have put up great advanced stats for years. It's easier to do what Randall Cobb does when you have Greg Jennings (up till now), Jordy Nelson and James Jones, with Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball. Still, a 77% catch rate on 104 targets is insane.
168.) Jason Peters (T-PHI)
Jason Peters, when healthy, is a Top-5 Left Tackle. Too bad for him he doesn't always stay healthy. Peters has had the unfair task of being Mike Vick's tackle, but luckily for him, he missed out on the more unfair task of protecting the blind side of Nick Foles. Well, he gets that challenge this year. Yes, Peters is one of a few guys on this list who missed serious time in 2012 (in Peters case, the whole season), but again, past performance matters here as well. He's been good in the past and given his age, he should be good again. When he's on the field, at least.
167.) Corey Liuget (DT-SD)
Corey Liuget quietly had a really good second season in the NFL. He was solid against the run, but his real value laid in his pass rush. 7 sacks and 8 tipped balls (again, really good when we don't consider what a Kaiju JJ Watt was), and a ridiculous activity rate for a 3-4 DE in a Watt-less world. The Chargers are building a nice little front-seven on defense, and Liuget is the key.
166.) Brandon Moore (G-NYJ)
Yes, he's currently a free agen
165.) Connor Barwin (OLB-PHI)
Connor Barwin, when you look at the numbers, took a step backwards in 2012 after a nice breakout in 2011. Of course, this was true of every member of the Texans defense not named JJ Watt. However, with Barwin it helps to look deeper. Football Outsiders' noted him in the Top-10 in the league with 14 QB hits, and his 16.5 hurries aren't too shabby either. He was getting pressure, just not finishing the job. That stuff fluctuates, especially with young players as then it is more bad luck and less 'losing a step'.
164.) Dwayne Allen (TE-IND)
When Dwayne Allen was selected in the 3rd round of the 2012 draft, most Colts fans I knew hated the pick. It wasn't so much the choice of Allen, but the choice of another TE after taking Luck's binky Coby Fleener a round earlier. Well, Fleener had an injury plagued rookie season, and Dwayne Allen happened to turn in a damn good rookie campaign at TE. His DVOA was really nice for a high usage TE, as was hist 68% catch rate (which is about 10% higher than Luck's completion to rate to anyone not named Dwayne Allen). Best was his two drops. Dwayne Allen had a really good rookie season. Now it comes to see whether Fleener can reach his level, not vice versa.
163.) Cary Williams (CB-CLE)
Cary Williams had a really nice 2011 season, but struggled for much of 2012 after being forced into the CB1 role with Lardarius Webb's ACL injury. Still, he performed admirably out-of-position and was really nice in their playoff run. His 17 passes defended rank 3rd in the NFL for secondary players, and his tacklins will be a great relief to those Eagles fans that struggled through Asante & Asomugha non-contact combination.
162.) Tony Romo (QB-DAL)
Tony Romo had some nice fantasy numbers, and had more than a few great 4th quarter moments, and kept that team alive in the playoff race. Still, it is hard to get past the lowest y/a of his career along with his highest interception total in years (a league-high 19). Tony Romo is a very good QB. There aren't many established QBs that are ahead of him (there are three rookies that I did rank ahead of him), and the Cowboys probably couldn't get any better QB any time soon, but with his age creeping up there, it might be time to start savoring the memories and not expecting a Super Bowl out of him.
161.) Captain Munnerlyn (CB-CAR)
Captain Munnerlyn is Exhibit A of the variable state of slot-corners in the NFL. Football Outsiders had him ranked #11, #3, #79 and #2 in ypa allowed over the past four years. With the strange retirement of Chris Gamble, Munnerlyn might have to take his slot-corner abilities outside, which should be something to watch in 2013. Not many corners can make that transition, and the Panthers need him to be one of the few who do, considering their other options are people no one has heard of.
160.) Stephen Tulloch (MLB-DET)
Tulloch is the rare pure Cover-2 MLB. He is totally middling against the run, but is great against the pass (Top-20 in both of FO's pass defense stats). He always stays on the field, and is rarely the one giving up big plays. Guys that can cover the field are incredibly important in a division that contains the likes of Kyle Rudolph, Randall Cobb and Jermichael Finley, and despite not being overly fast, Tulloch does a great job on all of them.
159.) Brandon Browner (CB-SEA)
Brandon Browner makes up the less touted half of the Sehawks corner duo, but in a few ways he had a better season in 2012 Sherman. First, he gave up fewer yards per pass and had a higher success rate than Sherman. He also had a higher target rate, making those stats more impressive. However, he was awful against the run; not a huge priority for a corner, but still. Also, he wasn't as impactful in terms of defending passes and interceptions. Sure, those are variable from year-to-year, but having 13 fewer passes defended is substantial.
158.) Marques Colston (WR-NO)
Colston had another stellar season as the WR1 in the Saints offense, with a nice 64% catch rate, and 10 TDs (the second highest total of his career). His advanced stats are below that of his more slot-ish receiving mate in Lance Moore, but Colston's incredible consistency going up against opposing top corners lands him on this list. It's amazing that he's already turning 30, but when you remember that he's been in New Orleans as long as Drew Brees has, it is less so.
157.) Andre Smith (T-CIN)
Andre Smith will probably forever be known for his man-boobs flopping during his private workout before the 2009 draft. That will be the immediate picture in the head of any NFL fan of Andre Smith, no matter how consistently good he is. No one will mistake Andre Smith for Joe Thomas, or even Sebastian Vollmer (considering Smith plays RT), but he's one of the NFL's best at RT. He rarely gives up sacks and is a monster in the run game. That was his forte coming out of Alabama, and unlike so many of Nick Saban's Alabama players, his NFL play has come close to matching his Crimson Tide play.
156.) Glover Quin (S-DET)
Glover Quin was the only member of the Houston Texans secondary, apart from Kareem Jackson who got a lot better, to hold his value in 2012 from 2011. Quin was a Top-30 safety in both run defense categories on Football Outsiders, and a Top-20 performer against the pass. Not many reach both levels. Detroit is really depending on Quin being that good once again for them, as they've needed a solid secondary player for about 15 years now. Quin has that ability.
155.) Joe Haden (CB-CLE)
Haden's numbers weren't great, and his four game PED suspension is an issue, but the promise he showed as a rookie is still there. Corners take time to develop, and he has to go against some good receivers in that division. Ray Horton's defense asks a lot of corners, but I do think Haden is up for the task.
154.) Kareem Jackson (CB-HOU)
Kareem Jackson was all sorts of terrible in 2011. There's a reason why corners shouldn't be judged on their rookie season, even if that rookie season is as bad as Jackson's was. Kareem Jackson wasn't run-of-the-mill bad, but 'you get an average of 11.5 yards when you throw at him' bad. Fast forward 16-games and you only get 7.1 yards, which might sound bad but it is good for 29th in the NFL. Couple that with the league's 12th best success rate and 19 passes defended and you get one of the biggest surprises of the 2012 season.
153.) Heath Miller (TE-PIT)
Heath Miller, who's been in the league since 2005, just had his best receiving season. He had a career high in yards and TDs. It's always seemed odd to me that Heath Miller didn't have more TDs than he had (two each in 2010 and 2011), but he was Ben's main red zone target in 2012. His blocking has notably gotten worse over time, but he's as good a receiving target at 30 as he was at 25, which is phenomenal.
152.) Greg Hardy (DE-CAR)
Greg Hardy probably isn't as famous or well-perceived as Charles Johnson, but he had a great 2012 season with 11 sacks, 19 hurries and above average play against the run. Hardy is just 25, and pass rushers age well, so he could be on the cusp of a long and productive career in Carolina. The Pannthers pass rush is quietly really good, and with Hardy playing this way and the additions in the offseason, it should stay that way.
151.) Eric Berry (S-KC)
Eric Berry is arguably the best safety against the run by Football Outsiders numbers, ranking #2 in stop percentage and #1 in yards allowed for all secondary players. However, the more important job of a safety is to be good against the pass, and while Berry isn't particularly bad against the pass, I'm sure the Chiefs would rather have his skill set reversed. Still, Berry is young and supposedly fully healthy. Great things should still await one of the more talented safeties in the NFL.
