You know the drill, here's the second 50 of the Top-200
150.) London Fletcher (ILB-WAS)
London Fletcher is entering that Mariano Rivera zone where you expect him to be about the same for another 15 years. His play against the run declined quite a bit in 2012, but his pass coverage was as good as ever. He was great in impact plays, with five interceptions (which led the Redskins) and two sacks in the Week 17 win over Dallas. With Ray Lewis gone, Fletcher becomes the dean of NFL Linebackers, and knowing him, he might hold that until Patrick Willis takes over in 2020.
149.) Doug Martin (RB-TB)
Doug Martin was really good in 2012. How good? Only two rookie running backs ever had more yards from scrimmage as a rookie. One is a Hall of Famer (Eric Dickerson), and the other is a potential borderline Hall of Famer playing in one of the best offenses (Edgerrin James). Martin was unusually good at receiving for a rookie running back, with a 70% catch rate. Opposing defenses will plan on stopping Martin more in 2013, so it will be interesting to see if his second season is as good as the second seasons of those two guys.
148.) Donte Whitner (S-SF)
Donte Whitner was awesome in 2011 and merely good in 2012. Splitting the difference puts him about here for 2013. His numbers against the run were fine, but he was more of a liability in pass coverage, notably in the Super Bowl. Still, 2012 was the outlier among his last few seasons, and one season doesn't make a trend. He still is just 28, so there is reason to believe that 2013 will be closer to his normal level of play.
147.) Chris Harris (CB-DEN)
Chris Harris was a Top-20 corner against the run and a Top-20 corner against the pass. To do all of this in the lost makes it even more impressive. He's probably going to be playing the slot again with Domonique Rodgers-Cromartie manning the outside spot, and that is where Chris Harris thrives. He was borderline brilliant at times in 2012, and he was one of the few players on Denver's defense to play well in their Divisional Round loss to Baltimore.
146.) Kyle Rudolph (TE-MIN)
Kyle Rudolph was basically the only dependable weapon that Christian Ponder had in the passing game after Percy Harvin got hurt, and the Vikings seemed to know it. They used him all over the field, as a slot receiver, on the outside, in-line and even as a fullback. He was even a far better blocker than people realize. Rudolph size makes him a Gronk-like monster in the red zone. If he ever had a Brady-like person throwing him the ball, the whole country might realize.
145.) Devin McCourty (S-NE)
Devin McCourty's stats are a little confusing since he played about half the season as an average corner and then switched to Free Safety which he played really well. McCourty was awesome at cornerback in 2010 and then putrid at corner in 2011. Well, he split the difference and changed the position and returned to something resembling the rising star he was a rookie. McCourty at least limits the long completions the Patriots hemorrhaged in 2011 and early 2012.
144.) Antonio Brown (WR-PIT)
Antonio Brown, because of Mike Wallace's up-and-down play and the lack of any run game, had a down year in 2012, but there is a reason why the Steelers chose him over Mike Wallace, and that reason is 100% because he is cheaper. Antonio Brown is a fine route runner, a perfect fit for that offense that asks a lot of him (screen passes by the dozen), and even blocking, which he is really good at. If Ssanders can stay healthy and that run game get an actual lead back, he could return to what he was in 2011.
143.) Antoine Bethea (S-IND)
Antoine Bethea somehow hasn't made an interception since 2010. That's hard to believe, but it underscores just how easy it is to pass on the Colts outside secondary players underneath. Bethea still keeps that secondary from being the worst in the league with his range deep. His role has changed as the defense has, and he's actually allowed to enter the box these days, but that hasn't changed his effectiveness.
142.) Philip Rivers (QB-SD)
It is hard to describe Rivers' 26 TD 15 INT season in any other way than this: the worst season a used-to-be-brilliant QB has had in a long time. You can easily make the argument that entering the 2011 season, Philip Rivers was right there with Aaron Rodgers as the best under-30 QB in the league. Since then, Rodgers has become a future Hall of Famer and Rivers has stalled and now started to decline. Still, with targets that could stay healthy, his play should get better. He's far from bad, and while he's in risk of falling off the list with another bad season, I have a feeling 2013 will be better than 2011 or 2012.
141.) Maurkice Pouncey (C-PIT)
The great overrated man, Maurkice Pouncey is finally coming close to the odd super-hype he received as a rookie in 2010. His blown blocks are still higher than other top-flight centers, but he's limited his penalties and stayed healthy for the first time in his career. He's young at a position that ages better than most o-line positions and with the upcoming starters David DeCastro and Mike Adams, the Pittsburgh O-Line may finally get good enough to extend Roethlisberger's career.
140.) Alfred Morris (RB-WAS)
The zone-read works with any QB that has a speed of Griffin, but the real key is having a running back capable of making defenses focus on him. If Morris wasn't any good, that offense doesn't work at all. Morris, however, is really good. He was overused a tad, so it will be interesting to see if he flames out like other Shanahan guys, but the one he most resembles, Clinton Portis, remained a damn good player for quite a while.
139.) Carlos Rogers (CB-SF)
Carlos Rogers had a statistically odd season. He did really well in average yards per play allowed, ranking in the Top-20 in that against both the run and pass. However, his success and stop rate was #61 against the run and #47 against the pass. It's hard to understand how this works, but I guess he just made a lot of decent plays for medium gains. Rogers is getting older in age, but his game has never truly been about speed. In that defense, he should stay good for a few more years at least.
138.) Derrick Johnson (ILB-KC)
Derrick Johnson put up another solid, if slightly less than spectacular season playing for another bad Cheifs team. He didn't get the recognition that his defensive mates Tamba Hali and Justin Houston got, but wasn't that far off performance wise from those two. He was great against the run again, and while he was rarely asked to rush the passer, he managed to put up 26 defeats, which had him tied for 13th, a list full of top players.
137.) Robert Quinn (DE-STL)
Robert Quinn had a breakout second season, with 10.5 sacks and 13 more hurries. That second number lags far behind his (higher ranked) opposite side rusher in Chris Long, but let's remember that Quinn is just 23. He and Chris Long make up the best current 4-3 DE duo and Quinn's play should only get better. Jeff Fisher never really had two three-down DEs in his time in Tennessee, but he has that now and he'll be loving it.
136.) Antrel Rolle (S-NYG)
Antrel Rolle might just be the most underrated Free Safety in the league. He's never going to get the credit he deserves mainly because he was a semi-disappoint at corner in Arizona, but ever since his arrival in New York, he's yet to miss a game and been one of the only stable presences among that up and down secondary. He was great against the pass in 2012, ranking Top-20 in both success rate and yards per pass allowed. He even put in some fine work at nickelback. Great player, the final star in a line of them from the U.
135.) Gerald McCoy (DT-TB)
Gerald McCoy is known for being the guy picked right after Ndamukong Suh. He was injured for much of 2011, and while he stayed healthy in 2012 he still isn't as dynamic as what many expected. Much of his success and praise has been garnered from those "he's disruptive and creates plays for others", but those types of things are generally founded in truth. They are in this case, as McCoy was just that for a defense that played great against the run during 2012.
134.) Frank Gore (RB-SF)
Frank Gore can't keep doing this forever, right? He came back from two disappointing seasons in 2010 and 2011 with a great 2012. His success wasn't even a byproduct of the switch to Kaepernick, as his numbers were actually better when Smith was the starter. Gore was used really effectively in the run game, with a 78% catch rate which is great even for a running back. The 2012 season might have been a last ride in the sunshine for Gore as he's crossed the deadly 3-0, but what a ride it was.
133.) Matt Schaub (QB-HOU)
There's a lot of things I don't understand about the criticism of Matt Schaub of his performance late last year when the Texans slumped to a 1-3 finish. The main one was that he was a game manager type and couldn't carry the offense, that he couldn't succeed without a running game. Well, I direct you to the 2009 Texans. That year, Schaub went 396/583 (a 67.9% completion rate), for 4,770 yards (which led the league - 8.2 y/a, 2nd in the NFL), and 29 TDs. The Texans run game that year? They had a 3.5 yards per carry. That was a long time ago, but I think his average year was more about no alternative to Andre Johnson and an injury.
132.) Matt Kalil (T-MIN)
Matt Kalil comes in and Peterson runs for 2,097 yards. Cause and effect? Probably not, but Kalil had a great rookie season at Left Tackle. He was great in pass protection all year, in a division filled with really good edge rushers. His run blocking got a lot better as the year wore on. His six penalties are really good for a rookie Left Tackle. He didn't miss a snap and was basically as good as the Vikings could have hoped for when they picked him 4th overall.
131.) Lavonte David (OLB-TB)
Lavonte David's rate and yards allowed numbers don't spell that of a rookie sensation, but what does is the sure number of date points. His 79 stops were in the Top-20 league wide, and his 30 defeats ranked fifth in the NFL. The Tampa Bay D-Line was good enough in run defense that if a runner got to David's level, it was already some distance downfield, but if he did, David tackled him, almost every time.
130.) Matthew Stafford (QB-DET)
Matthew Stafford is an study on how we perceive QBs. He was known first for being oft-injured, until he wans't (much like Matt Schaub). When he finally had his first fully healthy season, he threw for 5,000 yards and was seen as an upcoming mega-star. In 2012, he stayed healthy again and nearly threw for 5,000 yards again, but somehow that became a disappointment. In the end, the Lions may do better not having to throw it 720 times in 2013 and let Stafford get some rest on that arm. In the end, though, Stafford is still really good firmly placed in the Top-10 of NFL QBs.
129.) Steve Smith (WR-CAR)
Steve Smith will probably never have a true 2nd receiver alongside him to take away double teams. I think Panthers fans should just move on from the idea of that ever happening. It is finally starting to effect Steve Smith, as his catch rate dropped to near 50% (it was below 50% in 2010, but those Panthers were terrible at QB). Steve Smith can still somehow get open deep despite being the only good receiver on Carolina, but NFL teams may get better at stopping that too.
128.) Dennis Pitta (TE-BAL)
I had a debate on the interwebs with a Ravens fan about who would replace the Anquan Boldin role in their offense after his unceremonious departure. He finally landed on Dennis Pitta as his answer, and honestly, it makes a lot of sense. Pitta is not a great blocker (they have Ed Dickson for that), but he is great at using his body as a receiver. He was great in the playoffs last year, including what arguably was the biggest non-Jacoby Jones hail-mary catch they had, with a catch on 3rd and 11 backed up on the Ravens 4 yard line in OT. Flacco has good chemistry with Pitta, and with Boldin gone an 80-catch season is not that ridiculous.
127.) Jordan Gross (T-CAR)
This is more of a reputation pick than anything else. Jordan Gross is not what he once was (the key cog of the NFLs best run game from 2008-2009, and really good in 2011), but he still isn't all that bad. He still gets penalized incredibly infrequently for a left tackle, and doesn't give up many sacks while protecting a pretty sackable QB. Gross is really old now, as he started Super Bowl XXXVIIII as a rookie ten years ago, and for him to be close to very good ten years on is a testament to his ability.
126.) Jason Hatcher (DE-DAL)
Jason Hatcher, in a world where JJ Watt didn't exist, would be considered probably the best pass rushing 3-4 DE in the NFL. He had 22 hurries and 11 hits by Football Outsiders numbers, which is stellar for someone at that position. Of course, it would be nice if he was better than merely good against the run, as that is where he's more needed in a lineup that already has really good pass rushers. I guess he'll play that Warren Sapp role in Monte Kiffin's 4-3 defense, but Sapp was dominant against the run as well.
125.) Louis Vasquez (G-DEN)
Louis Vasquez, in all honesty, had about as good a season as you can expect from an under-the-radar guard. He didn't commit one penalty all year long. He allowed just a half sack, and Football Outsiders has him down for just nine blown blocks (really good for someone who played 1,017 snaps). The scary part is blocking for Peyton Manning is even easier than blocking for Philip Rivers. He has a chance to get a lot higher on this list in 2014.
124.) Jared Veldheer (T-OAK)
He came from little Hillsdale College four years ago, in the last Al Davis draft of his life. That draft wasn't great (not a surprise given most of Davis' drafts in the 2000s), but getting Veldheer in the 4th round was a steal. He's developed into a rock-solid left tackle, being good in the run game and great in pass protection. He has surprisingly quick feet for someone of his size. Reggie McKenzie rid the Raiders of almost all of Davis' picks from his last few years, but Veldheer was and is a keeper.
123.) Mike Wallace (WR-MIA)
Mike Wallace was really average in 2012, totally miscast in Todd Haley's scheme. Of course, most of the Steelers receivers were miscast in that scheme, but that is a discussion for another day. I'm giving Wallace something of a pass because he was, in all seriousness, arguably the best receiver in the NFL over 2010-2011, with 132 catches for 2,450 yards and 18 TDs, Wallace was the league's premier deep threat at receiver. The Dolphins are banking on his 2012 being fully about scheme mismatch and not about a falling off into his future level.
122.) Russell Wilson (QB-SEA)
Seems low for a guy who had a 100.0 passer rating and was among the best QBs in the second half of the season? Yeah, it probably does. But other than possibly Ben Roethlisberger in 2004, Russell Wilson had one of the easiest jobs of any rookie QB. He had a monster running game, a very good o-line and a dominant defense. Luck had none of these things, and RGIII had the first and somewhat the second. I still wonder about Wilson if Lynch gets hurt or his o-line gets hurt. Or it may be East Coast Bias.
121.) Russell Okung (T-SEA)
Replacing a living legend is never easy, especially when that living legend happens to be the best player in your franchises history. That is what Russell Okung walked into in 2010, replacing (though hot directly) Walter Jones, a probably first-ballot Hall of Famer. Okung struggled through injuries but finally stayed healthy in 2012 and played at a pro-bowl level. He was always talented and good, but staying on the field for the whole season, and having a great offense around him gave him the national exposure. He needs to cut down on penalties (11 in 2012), but he was great at stopping pass rushers, especially early in the year when Wilson was still being covered up.
120.) Thomas Davis (OLB-CAR)
I don't know if any defensive player in the NFL performed in the way they were asked of any better than Thomas Davis. His job was to cover tight ends and slot receivers, and he was probably the best or second best (after Patrick Willis) linebacker in the NFL in pass coverage, ranking #6 in success rate and #2 in yards allowed. He was bad against the run, but that isn't part of his job description the way he is used. Finally healthy after rotten luck regarding ACLs, it was great to see Davis playing as well as he did again.
119.) Colin Kaepernick (QB-SF)
What's there to say that hasn't been said. Kaepernick is probably the most physically gifted of the three zone-read QBs that lit the NFL on fire during the second half of last season. I think RGIII is more dynamic, but more of an injury risk. Kaepernick is bigger, stronger and has a true cannon. The one worry I have is what happens if he doesn't have a run game. Also, his red zone numbers are quite bad, as he struggles with timing throws in crowded space (what normally happens in the red zone). He had no idea what to do when blitzed quickly in the red zone late in the Super Bowl. Still, having that as your only negative is quite good.
118.) Casey Heyward (CB-GB)
Casey Hayward quietly had an incredible rookie season at corner for the Packers. He wasn't targeted a whole lot, but when he was, he gave up nothing. Hayward ranked #1 in success rate among defensive backs and #5 in yards per pass allowed. Even his run numbers were good. If he has a season close to that in 2013, he's moving way, way, WAY up this list. The Packers found their Woodson replacement.
117.) Sean Lee (ILB-DAL)
Sean Lee's injury ultimately doomed the Cowboys defense in 2012, but he was really good up till that injury. Lee could really explode playing the MLB role in Kiffin's Tampa-2, as his instinctiveness and coverage abilities are perfect for that defense. As miscast many of the lineman are in that defense, Lee is perfectly fitted into his future role. As long as he stays healthy (and last year was his first injury-plagued season) he should continue to be a star.
116.) Trent Williams (T-WAS)
I'll never forget Trent Williams for making Roger Goodell call him 'Silverback' when announcing that he was picked in the 2010 draft. It took him blocking for RGIII for him to jump to 'really good', but he was really good in 2011, allowing just 4 sacks and just 9 hurries for a QB that needs blind side protection more than most. As long as he lays off the hooch (he was suspended for four games in 2011), the Redskins have their Left Tackle to go along with their QB.
115.) Ryan Kalil (C-CAR)
Kalil got hurt midway through 2012, which might have had as much to do with the run game deteriorating as anything else. He was awesome when he did play (didn't give up a sack and just two pressures), and he has been very good for years, but at his age and position, injuries could become a recurring concern. For now, he stays as the best Kalil brother, but my money's on that changing by 2014.
114.) Jahri Evans (G-NO)
Jahri Evans job is more important than most guards. Because Drew Brees is short (if you don't know, so is Russell Wilson), he needs a clean pocket in front of him to see throws more than other QBs (who are tall enough to easily look over their lineman). Evans lost Carl Nicks alongside him, but was great once again in 2012, if a little worse than before. It hurts to go from being the 2nd best guard to the best one, and have more responsibility placed on you, but Evans was able to be about as good in pass protection as before. Where he fell of a tad was in run blocking.
113.) Mario Williams (DE-BUF)
After getting a massive contract, Williams season in 2012 was seen as a relative bust, and it was worse than his usual standards in Houston, but Williams got the brunt of the blame for what was honestly the failure of the rest of the Buffalo defense to play well. Williams himself was among the bust run stopping DEs in the NFL, and did record 10.5 sacks with 18 more hurries. He looked a step slower at times, but it is easier to look a step slower when the rest of the team isn't helping you out all that much.
112.) Darnell Dockett (DT-ARZ)
Darnell Dockett, as he's admitted himself, was miscast in Ray Horton's scheme (one can only hope the same thing doesn't happen to the talent that is Jabaal Sheard), as he was asked to plug blockers in the run game and deflect blocking attention away from everyone else, which is why his 1.5 sacks isn't as bad as that number would suggest. He was still excellent against the run and got a fair amount of hurries. Age is a question at this point, but in a new scheme were he hopefully will be used in a better way, should allow Dockett to return to being one of the premier 3-4 DEs in the NFL.
111.) Tony Gonzalez (TE-ATL)
Maybe it is because of Rob Gronkowski's un-holy start to his career that Gonzalez had his best season in years (and decided against retiring), trying to put the career TEs numbers out of reach. Gonzalez was an average posession receiver in 2010-2011, but he turned back the clock with a great 2012 season, with his highest catch rate of his career, catching 75% of the passes thrown his way. For someone his age to rank #1 in DYAR for TEs is just stupid. Sure, it was only because Rob Gronkowski got hurt, but that is part of Gonzalez's brilliance, as he's missed two games in his career.
110.) Kevin Williams (DT-MIN)
Kevin Williams was really good last year. There's no point in discussing his merits for this list. The more interesting one is discussing his merits for the Hall of Fame. He's now played ten seasons, all but one at Defensive Tackle. He's missed just four games in his career, and put up 56.5 sacks and been a first-team all pro five teams. That is the resume of a pretty close to sure-fire Hall of Famer. Somehow I feel like he's been massively underrated.
109.) Paul Kruger (OLB-CLE)
Paul Kruger might be Jarrett Johnson, Adalius Thomas or any of the other OLBs that played opposite Terrell Suggs and next to Ray Lewis, or he may be different. Who Knows? For Cleveland's sake, I hope he does what he did in 2012, which was be one of the best run defenders in the league at OLB, while also forcing a tidy 21 hurries. Kruger is still just 27, so his best years should be coming. The problem was those last two sentences could have been said about Adalius Thomas, too.
108.) Justin Houston (DE-KC)
Justin Houston is overshadowed by Tamba Hali (for good reason, Hali is awesome), but he jumped another level in 2012, with 10 sacks (actually one more than Hali), and 22.5 pressure (7 more than Hali). Of course, it helps explain this when teams were double and triple teaming Hali last year, but that is still great production from a OLB who is just 24. Andy Reid hasn't had a layer like Justin Houston in a while, a guy that I wish the late Jim Johnson could have used in a number of imaginative ways.
107.) D'Brickshaw Ferguson (T-NYJ)
Ho-Hum, another solid year from Brick. It's becoming lost in the woefullness of Mark Sanchez, but D'Brickshaw Ferguson has put up about 4-5 very good years in a row. He's not great, and probably never will be, but he rarely gets penalized (just two last year), doesn't get straight out beat for sacks, and is great in the run game. Not much more you can ask from a Left Tackle.
106.) Troy Polamalu (S-PIT)
Troy Polamalu is really starting to get hampered by injuries, which is not surprising given the Bob Sanders-ian way he's played safety. Last year was the nadir, where he missed ten games, but when he did take the field Polamalu played his best since in a while. In 2011, the story on Troy was that he was past his prime. In 2012, it was that he's still great, but only for so many games. His pass coverage numbers are ridiculous (77% success rate, 3.4 yards allowed - both Top-5 numbers) but he didn't play enough to qualify. Therein lies the issue with Polamalu.
105.) Dez Bryant (WR-DAL)
105 may seem low, but I have ranked just 14 receivers ahead of Bryant. Of course, that may seem like a lot, but there are a glut of really good receivers in the NFL right now. Also, while Bryant has the gifts to be incredible, and played like that at times in 2012, there were some notable issues with Bryant. First, was his penchant to dominate bad defenses and go away against good ones. The only Top-half defense he played well against was Baltimore (which was worse at the time - that was the game Lardarius Webb tore his ACL in mid-game) and Chicago (where he put up most of his yards in garbage time, and had a notable error where he failed on a hot-read that led to a pick six). There's still work to do, but the potential is there.
104.) Daryl Smith (ILB-JAX)
Daryl Smith missed almost all of 2012, but he was so good in 2010-2011 that he still gets a spot on the list. He's back in Jacksonville where his best play was, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the old Daryl Smith again. He led the NFL in defeats just two seasons ago, and is still relatively young. He'll get lost in Jacsonville on a terrible team, but seeing him play linebacker is worth at least giving 1% of your NFL attention to the Jaguars.
103.) Jordy Nelson (WR-GB)
Injuries shortened Nelson's season to just 12 games, but this was his first major injury in the NFL. It's clear to this point that Nelson is the top outside WR for the Packers, and his incredilbe timing with Aaron Rodgers (cue up about a dozen back-shoulder throws to Jordy over the years) should allow him to do an admirable job playing the Jennings role. Nelson is hyper-efficient, getting the 6th best DVOA for wideouts a year after leading all wideouts. If he stays healthy, he could have a monster season in 2013.
102.) Elvis Dumervil (OLB-BAL)
Elvis Dumervil should be perfect in Baltimore. With Terrell Suggs, among many other good run stuffers, Doom can focus on what he does best, rush the passer. His 11 sacks and 23 hurries aren't at the Von Miller level (because Dumervil is not a God amongst Men), but it is better than any non-Suggs OLB for the Ravens since Adalius Thomas. He's getting older, but should fit perfectly in Baltimore. This means nothing about his play, but it still is shocking that a fax machine snafu has landed him in Baltimore.
101.) Victor Cruz (WR-NYG)
In 2011, when he was healthy, an d more importantly when Hakeem Nicks was healthy, he was the most dynamic slot receiver in the league. And not in the "he's dynamic because we have to come up with a reason why getting rid of Welker makes sense" way that Amendola is, but in the 18.7 yards per reception way. That dropped in 2012 to the still respectable 12.7 yards per reception. What Cruz really showed in 2012 was that he wasn't a one-year wonder. There was no way he was repeating the ridiculous 2011, but he held his own as the focus of opposing defenses. He's not going away, especially with that shiny new contract.
TO
150.) London Fletcher (ILB-WAS)
London Fletcher is entering that Mariano Rivera zone where you expect him to be about the same for another 15 years. His play against the run declined quite a bit in 2012, but his pass coverage was as good as ever. He was great in impact plays, with five interceptions (which led the Redskins) and two sacks in the Week 17 win over Dallas. With Ray Lewis gone, Fletcher becomes the dean of NFL Linebackers, and knowing him, he might hold that until Patrick Willis takes over in 2020.
149.) Doug Martin (RB-TB)
Doug Martin was really good in 2012. How good? Only two rookie running backs ever had more yards from scrimmage as a rookie. One is a Hall of Famer (Eric Dickerson), and the other is a potential borderline Hall of Famer playing in one of the best offenses (Edgerrin James). Martin was unusually good at receiving for a rookie running back, with a 70% catch rate. Opposing defenses will plan on stopping Martin more in 2013, so it will be interesting to see if his second season is as good as the second seasons of those two guys.
148.) Donte Whitner (S-SF)
Donte Whitner was awesome in 2011 and merely good in 2012. Splitting the difference puts him about here for 2013. His numbers against the run were fine, but he was more of a liability in pass coverage, notably in the Super Bowl. Still, 2012 was the outlier among his last few seasons, and one season doesn't make a trend. He still is just 28, so there is reason to believe that 2013 will be closer to his normal level of play.
147.) Chris Harris (CB-DEN)
Chris Harris was a Top-20 corner against the run and a Top-20 corner against the pass. To do all of this in the lost makes it even more impressive. He's probably going to be playing the slot again with Domonique Rodgers-Cromartie manning the outside spot, and that is where Chris Harris thrives. He was borderline brilliant at times in 2012, and he was one of the few players on Denver's defense to play well in their Divisional Round loss to Baltimore.
146.) Kyle Rudolph (TE-MIN)
Kyle Rudolph was basically the only dependable weapon that Christian Ponder had in the passing game after Percy Harvin got hurt, and the Vikings seemed to know it. They used him all over the field, as a slot receiver, on the outside, in-line and even as a fullback. He was even a far better blocker than people realize. Rudolph size makes him a Gronk-like monster in the red zone. If he ever had a Brady-like person throwing him the ball, the whole country might realize.
145.) Devin McCourty (S-NE)
Devin McCourty's stats are a little confusing since he played about half the season as an average corner and then switched to Free Safety which he played really well. McCourty was awesome at cornerback in 2010 and then putrid at corner in 2011. Well, he split the difference and changed the position and returned to something resembling the rising star he was a rookie. McCourty at least limits the long completions the Patriots hemorrhaged in 2011 and early 2012.
144.) Antonio Brown (WR-PIT)
Antonio Brown, because of Mike Wallace's up-and-down play and the lack of any run game, had a down year in 2012, but there is a reason why the Steelers chose him over Mike Wallace, and that reason is 100% because he is cheaper. Antonio Brown is a fine route runner, a perfect fit for that offense that asks a lot of him (screen passes by the dozen), and even blocking, which he is really good at. If Ssanders can stay healthy and that run game get an actual lead back, he could return to what he was in 2011.
143.) Antoine Bethea (S-IND)
Antoine Bethea somehow hasn't made an interception since 2010. That's hard to believe, but it underscores just how easy it is to pass on the Colts outside secondary players underneath. Bethea still keeps that secondary from being the worst in the league with his range deep. His role has changed as the defense has, and he's actually allowed to enter the box these days, but that hasn't changed his effectiveness.
142.) Philip Rivers (QB-SD)
It is hard to describe Rivers' 26 TD 15 INT season in any other way than this: the worst season a used-to-be-brilliant QB has had in a long time. You can easily make the argument that entering the 2011 season, Philip Rivers was right there with Aaron Rodgers as the best under-30 QB in the league. Since then, Rodgers has become a future Hall of Famer and Rivers has stalled and now started to decline. Still, with targets that could stay healthy, his play should get better. He's far from bad, and while he's in risk of falling off the list with another bad season, I have a feeling 2013 will be better than 2011 or 2012.
141.) Maurkice Pouncey (C-PIT)
The great overrated man, Maurkice Pouncey is finally coming close to the odd super-hype he received as a rookie in 2010. His blown blocks are still higher than other top-flight centers, but he's limited his penalties and stayed healthy for the first time in his career. He's young at a position that ages better than most o-line positions and with the upcoming starters David DeCastro and Mike Adams, the Pittsburgh O-Line may finally get good enough to extend Roethlisberger's career.
140.) Alfred Morris (RB-WAS)
The zone-read works with any QB that has a speed of Griffin, but the real key is having a running back capable of making defenses focus on him. If Morris wasn't any good, that offense doesn't work at all. Morris, however, is really good. He was overused a tad, so it will be interesting to see if he flames out like other Shanahan guys, but the one he most resembles, Clinton Portis, remained a damn good player for quite a while.
139.) Carlos Rogers (CB-SF)
Carlos Rogers had a statistically odd season. He did really well in average yards per play allowed, ranking in the Top-20 in that against both the run and pass. However, his success and stop rate was #61 against the run and #47 against the pass. It's hard to understand how this works, but I guess he just made a lot of decent plays for medium gains. Rogers is getting older in age, but his game has never truly been about speed. In that defense, he should stay good for a few more years at least.
138.) Derrick Johnson (ILB-KC)
Derrick Johnson put up another solid, if slightly less than spectacular season playing for another bad Cheifs team. He didn't get the recognition that his defensive mates Tamba Hali and Justin Houston got, but wasn't that far off performance wise from those two. He was great against the run again, and while he was rarely asked to rush the passer, he managed to put up 26 defeats, which had him tied for 13th, a list full of top players.
137.) Robert Quinn (DE-STL)
Robert Quinn had a breakout second season, with 10.5 sacks and 13 more hurries. That second number lags far behind his (higher ranked) opposite side rusher in Chris Long, but let's remember that Quinn is just 23. He and Chris Long make up the best current 4-3 DE duo and Quinn's play should only get better. Jeff Fisher never really had two three-down DEs in his time in Tennessee, but he has that now and he'll be loving it.
136.) Antrel Rolle (S-NYG)
Antrel Rolle might just be the most underrated Free Safety in the league. He's never going to get the credit he deserves mainly because he was a semi-disappoint at corner in Arizona, but ever since his arrival in New York, he's yet to miss a game and been one of the only stable presences among that up and down secondary. He was great against the pass in 2012, ranking Top-20 in both success rate and yards per pass allowed. He even put in some fine work at nickelback. Great player, the final star in a line of them from the U.
135.) Gerald McCoy (DT-TB)
Gerald McCoy is known for being the guy picked right after Ndamukong Suh. He was injured for much of 2011, and while he stayed healthy in 2012 he still isn't as dynamic as what many expected. Much of his success and praise has been garnered from those "he's disruptive and creates plays for others", but those types of things are generally founded in truth. They are in this case, as McCoy was just that for a defense that played great against the run during 2012.
134.) Frank Gore (RB-SF)
Frank Gore can't keep doing this forever, right? He came back from two disappointing seasons in 2010 and 2011 with a great 2012. His success wasn't even a byproduct of the switch to Kaepernick, as his numbers were actually better when Smith was the starter. Gore was used really effectively in the run game, with a 78% catch rate which is great even for a running back. The 2012 season might have been a last ride in the sunshine for Gore as he's crossed the deadly 3-0, but what a ride it was.
133.) Matt Schaub (QB-HOU)
There's a lot of things I don't understand about the criticism of Matt Schaub of his performance late last year when the Texans slumped to a 1-3 finish. The main one was that he was a game manager type and couldn't carry the offense, that he couldn't succeed without a running game. Well, I direct you to the 2009 Texans. That year, Schaub went 396/583 (a 67.9% completion rate), for 4,770 yards (which led the league - 8.2 y/a, 2nd in the NFL), and 29 TDs. The Texans run game that year? They had a 3.5 yards per carry. That was a long time ago, but I think his average year was more about no alternative to Andre Johnson and an injury.
132.) Matt Kalil (T-MIN)
Matt Kalil comes in and Peterson runs for 2,097 yards. Cause and effect? Probably not, but Kalil had a great rookie season at Left Tackle. He was great in pass protection all year, in a division filled with really good edge rushers. His run blocking got a lot better as the year wore on. His six penalties are really good for a rookie Left Tackle. He didn't miss a snap and was basically as good as the Vikings could have hoped for when they picked him 4th overall.
131.) Lavonte David (OLB-TB)
Lavonte David's rate and yards allowed numbers don't spell that of a rookie sensation, but what does is the sure number of date points. His 79 stops were in the Top-20 league wide, and his 30 defeats ranked fifth in the NFL. The Tampa Bay D-Line was good enough in run defense that if a runner got to David's level, it was already some distance downfield, but if he did, David tackled him, almost every time.
130.) Matthew Stafford (QB-DET)
Matthew Stafford is an study on how we perceive QBs. He was known first for being oft-injured, until he wans't (much like Matt Schaub). When he finally had his first fully healthy season, he threw for 5,000 yards and was seen as an upcoming mega-star. In 2012, he stayed healthy again and nearly threw for 5,000 yards again, but somehow that became a disappointment. In the end, the Lions may do better not having to throw it 720 times in 2013 and let Stafford get some rest on that arm. In the end, though, Stafford is still really good firmly placed in the Top-10 of NFL QBs.
129.) Steve Smith (WR-CAR)
Steve Smith will probably never have a true 2nd receiver alongside him to take away double teams. I think Panthers fans should just move on from the idea of that ever happening. It is finally starting to effect Steve Smith, as his catch rate dropped to near 50% (it was below 50% in 2010, but those Panthers were terrible at QB). Steve Smith can still somehow get open deep despite being the only good receiver on Carolina, but NFL teams may get better at stopping that too.
128.) Dennis Pitta (TE-BAL)
I had a debate on the interwebs with a Ravens fan about who would replace the Anquan Boldin role in their offense after his unceremonious departure. He finally landed on Dennis Pitta as his answer, and honestly, it makes a lot of sense. Pitta is not a great blocker (they have Ed Dickson for that), but he is great at using his body as a receiver. He was great in the playoffs last year, including what arguably was the biggest non-Jacoby Jones hail-mary catch they had, with a catch on 3rd and 11 backed up on the Ravens 4 yard line in OT. Flacco has good chemistry with Pitta, and with Boldin gone an 80-catch season is not that ridiculous.
127.) Jordan Gross (T-CAR)
This is more of a reputation pick than anything else. Jordan Gross is not what he once was (the key cog of the NFLs best run game from 2008-2009, and really good in 2011), but he still isn't all that bad. He still gets penalized incredibly infrequently for a left tackle, and doesn't give up many sacks while protecting a pretty sackable QB. Gross is really old now, as he started Super Bowl XXXVIIII as a rookie ten years ago, and for him to be close to very good ten years on is a testament to his ability.
126.) Jason Hatcher (DE-DAL)
Jason Hatcher, in a world where JJ Watt didn't exist, would be considered probably the best pass rushing 3-4 DE in the NFL. He had 22 hurries and 11 hits by Football Outsiders numbers, which is stellar for someone at that position. Of course, it would be nice if he was better than merely good against the run, as that is where he's more needed in a lineup that already has really good pass rushers. I guess he'll play that Warren Sapp role in Monte Kiffin's 4-3 defense, but Sapp was dominant against the run as well.
125.) Louis Vasquez (G-DEN)
Louis Vasquez, in all honesty, had about as good a season as you can expect from an under-the-radar guard. He didn't commit one penalty all year long. He allowed just a half sack, and Football Outsiders has him down for just nine blown blocks (really good for someone who played 1,017 snaps). The scary part is blocking for Peyton Manning is even easier than blocking for Philip Rivers. He has a chance to get a lot higher on this list in 2014.
124.) Jared Veldheer (T-OAK)
He came from little Hillsdale College four years ago, in the last Al Davis draft of his life. That draft wasn't great (not a surprise given most of Davis' drafts in the 2000s), but getting Veldheer in the 4th round was a steal. He's developed into a rock-solid left tackle, being good in the run game and great in pass protection. He has surprisingly quick feet for someone of his size. Reggie McKenzie rid the Raiders of almost all of Davis' picks from his last few years, but Veldheer was and is a keeper.
123.) Mike Wallace (WR-MIA)
Mike Wallace was really average in 2012, totally miscast in Todd Haley's scheme. Of course, most of the Steelers receivers were miscast in that scheme, but that is a discussion for another day. I'm giving Wallace something of a pass because he was, in all seriousness, arguably the best receiver in the NFL over 2010-2011, with 132 catches for 2,450 yards and 18 TDs, Wallace was the league's premier deep threat at receiver. The Dolphins are banking on his 2012 being fully about scheme mismatch and not about a falling off into his future level.
122.) Russell Wilson (QB-SEA)
Seems low for a guy who had a 100.0 passer rating and was among the best QBs in the second half of the season? Yeah, it probably does. But other than possibly Ben Roethlisberger in 2004, Russell Wilson had one of the easiest jobs of any rookie QB. He had a monster running game, a very good o-line and a dominant defense. Luck had none of these things, and RGIII had the first and somewhat the second. I still wonder about Wilson if Lynch gets hurt or his o-line gets hurt. Or it may be East Coast Bias.
121.) Russell Okung (T-SEA)
Replacing a living legend is never easy, especially when that living legend happens to be the best player in your franchises history. That is what Russell Okung walked into in 2010, replacing (though hot directly) Walter Jones, a probably first-ballot Hall of Famer. Okung struggled through injuries but finally stayed healthy in 2012 and played at a pro-bowl level. He was always talented and good, but staying on the field for the whole season, and having a great offense around him gave him the national exposure. He needs to cut down on penalties (11 in 2012), but he was great at stopping pass rushers, especially early in the year when Wilson was still being covered up.
120.) Thomas Davis (OLB-CAR)
I don't know if any defensive player in the NFL performed in the way they were asked of any better than Thomas Davis. His job was to cover tight ends and slot receivers, and he was probably the best or second best (after Patrick Willis) linebacker in the NFL in pass coverage, ranking #6 in success rate and #2 in yards allowed. He was bad against the run, but that isn't part of his job description the way he is used. Finally healthy after rotten luck regarding ACLs, it was great to see Davis playing as well as he did again.
119.) Colin Kaepernick (QB-SF)
What's there to say that hasn't been said. Kaepernick is probably the most physically gifted of the three zone-read QBs that lit the NFL on fire during the second half of last season. I think RGIII is more dynamic, but more of an injury risk. Kaepernick is bigger, stronger and has a true cannon. The one worry I have is what happens if he doesn't have a run game. Also, his red zone numbers are quite bad, as he struggles with timing throws in crowded space (what normally happens in the red zone). He had no idea what to do when blitzed quickly in the red zone late in the Super Bowl. Still, having that as your only negative is quite good.
118.) Casey Heyward (CB-GB)
Casey Hayward quietly had an incredible rookie season at corner for the Packers. He wasn't targeted a whole lot, but when he was, he gave up nothing. Hayward ranked #1 in success rate among defensive backs and #5 in yards per pass allowed. Even his run numbers were good. If he has a season close to that in 2013, he's moving way, way, WAY up this list. The Packers found their Woodson replacement.
117.) Sean Lee (ILB-DAL)
Sean Lee's injury ultimately doomed the Cowboys defense in 2012, but he was really good up till that injury. Lee could really explode playing the MLB role in Kiffin's Tampa-2, as his instinctiveness and coverage abilities are perfect for that defense. As miscast many of the lineman are in that defense, Lee is perfectly fitted into his future role. As long as he stays healthy (and last year was his first injury-plagued season) he should continue to be a star.
116.) Trent Williams (T-WAS)
I'll never forget Trent Williams for making Roger Goodell call him 'Silverback' when announcing that he was picked in the 2010 draft. It took him blocking for RGIII for him to jump to 'really good', but he was really good in 2011, allowing just 4 sacks and just 9 hurries for a QB that needs blind side protection more than most. As long as he lays off the hooch (he was suspended for four games in 2011), the Redskins have their Left Tackle to go along with their QB.
115.) Ryan Kalil (C-CAR)
Kalil got hurt midway through 2012, which might have had as much to do with the run game deteriorating as anything else. He was awesome when he did play (didn't give up a sack and just two pressures), and he has been very good for years, but at his age and position, injuries could become a recurring concern. For now, he stays as the best Kalil brother, but my money's on that changing by 2014.
114.) Jahri Evans (G-NO)
Jahri Evans job is more important than most guards. Because Drew Brees is short (if you don't know, so is Russell Wilson), he needs a clean pocket in front of him to see throws more than other QBs (who are tall enough to easily look over their lineman). Evans lost Carl Nicks alongside him, but was great once again in 2012, if a little worse than before. It hurts to go from being the 2nd best guard to the best one, and have more responsibility placed on you, but Evans was able to be about as good in pass protection as before. Where he fell of a tad was in run blocking.
113.) Mario Williams (DE-BUF)
After getting a massive contract, Williams season in 2012 was seen as a relative bust, and it was worse than his usual standards in Houston, but Williams got the brunt of the blame for what was honestly the failure of the rest of the Buffalo defense to play well. Williams himself was among the bust run stopping DEs in the NFL, and did record 10.5 sacks with 18 more hurries. He looked a step slower at times, but it is easier to look a step slower when the rest of the team isn't helping you out all that much.
112.) Darnell Dockett (DT-ARZ)
Darnell Dockett, as he's admitted himself, was miscast in Ray Horton's scheme (one can only hope the same thing doesn't happen to the talent that is Jabaal Sheard), as he was asked to plug blockers in the run game and deflect blocking attention away from everyone else, which is why his 1.5 sacks isn't as bad as that number would suggest. He was still excellent against the run and got a fair amount of hurries. Age is a question at this point, but in a new scheme were he hopefully will be used in a better way, should allow Dockett to return to being one of the premier 3-4 DEs in the NFL.
111.) Tony Gonzalez (TE-ATL)
Maybe it is because of Rob Gronkowski's un-holy start to his career that Gonzalez had his best season in years (and decided against retiring), trying to put the career TEs numbers out of reach. Gonzalez was an average posession receiver in 2010-2011, but he turned back the clock with a great 2012 season, with his highest catch rate of his career, catching 75% of the passes thrown his way. For someone his age to rank #1 in DYAR for TEs is just stupid. Sure, it was only because Rob Gronkowski got hurt, but that is part of Gonzalez's brilliance, as he's missed two games in his career.
110.) Kevin Williams (DT-MIN)
Kevin Williams was really good last year. There's no point in discussing his merits for this list. The more interesting one is discussing his merits for the Hall of Fame. He's now played ten seasons, all but one at Defensive Tackle. He's missed just four games in his career, and put up 56.5 sacks and been a first-team all pro five teams. That is the resume of a pretty close to sure-fire Hall of Famer. Somehow I feel like he's been massively underrated.
109.) Paul Kruger (OLB-CLE)
Paul Kruger might be Jarrett Johnson, Adalius Thomas or any of the other OLBs that played opposite Terrell Suggs and next to Ray Lewis, or he may be different. Who Knows? For Cleveland's sake, I hope he does what he did in 2012, which was be one of the best run defenders in the league at OLB, while also forcing a tidy 21 hurries. Kruger is still just 27, so his best years should be coming. The problem was those last two sentences could have been said about Adalius Thomas, too.
108.) Justin Houston (DE-KC)
Justin Houston is overshadowed by Tamba Hali (for good reason, Hali is awesome), but he jumped another level in 2012, with 10 sacks (actually one more than Hali), and 22.5 pressure (7 more than Hali). Of course, it helps explain this when teams were double and triple teaming Hali last year, but that is still great production from a OLB who is just 24. Andy Reid hasn't had a layer like Justin Houston in a while, a guy that I wish the late Jim Johnson could have used in a number of imaginative ways.
107.) D'Brickshaw Ferguson (T-NYJ)
Ho-Hum, another solid year from Brick. It's becoming lost in the woefullness of Mark Sanchez, but D'Brickshaw Ferguson has put up about 4-5 very good years in a row. He's not great, and probably never will be, but he rarely gets penalized (just two last year), doesn't get straight out beat for sacks, and is great in the run game. Not much more you can ask from a Left Tackle.
106.) Troy Polamalu (S-PIT)
Troy Polamalu is really starting to get hampered by injuries, which is not surprising given the Bob Sanders-ian way he's played safety. Last year was the nadir, where he missed ten games, but when he did take the field Polamalu played his best since in a while. In 2011, the story on Troy was that he was past his prime. In 2012, it was that he's still great, but only for so many games. His pass coverage numbers are ridiculous (77% success rate, 3.4 yards allowed - both Top-5 numbers) but he didn't play enough to qualify. Therein lies the issue with Polamalu.
105.) Dez Bryant (WR-DAL)
105 may seem low, but I have ranked just 14 receivers ahead of Bryant. Of course, that may seem like a lot, but there are a glut of really good receivers in the NFL right now. Also, while Bryant has the gifts to be incredible, and played like that at times in 2012, there were some notable issues with Bryant. First, was his penchant to dominate bad defenses and go away against good ones. The only Top-half defense he played well against was Baltimore (which was worse at the time - that was the game Lardarius Webb tore his ACL in mid-game) and Chicago (where he put up most of his yards in garbage time, and had a notable error where he failed on a hot-read that led to a pick six). There's still work to do, but the potential is there.
104.) Daryl Smith (ILB-JAX)
Daryl Smith missed almost all of 2012, but he was so good in 2010-2011 that he still gets a spot on the list. He's back in Jacksonville where his best play was, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the old Daryl Smith again. He led the NFL in defeats just two seasons ago, and is still relatively young. He'll get lost in Jacsonville on a terrible team, but seeing him play linebacker is worth at least giving 1% of your NFL attention to the Jaguars.
103.) Jordy Nelson (WR-GB)
Injuries shortened Nelson's season to just 12 games, but this was his first major injury in the NFL. It's clear to this point that Nelson is the top outside WR for the Packers, and his incredilbe timing with Aaron Rodgers (cue up about a dozen back-shoulder throws to Jordy over the years) should allow him to do an admirable job playing the Jennings role. Nelson is hyper-efficient, getting the 6th best DVOA for wideouts a year after leading all wideouts. If he stays healthy, he could have a monster season in 2013.
102.) Elvis Dumervil (OLB-BAL)
Elvis Dumervil should be perfect in Baltimore. With Terrell Suggs, among many other good run stuffers, Doom can focus on what he does best, rush the passer. His 11 sacks and 23 hurries aren't at the Von Miller level (because Dumervil is not a God amongst Men), but it is better than any non-Suggs OLB for the Ravens since Adalius Thomas. He's getting older, but should fit perfectly in Baltimore. This means nothing about his play, but it still is shocking that a fax machine snafu has landed him in Baltimore.
101.) Victor Cruz (WR-NYG)
In 2011, when he was healthy, an d more importantly when Hakeem Nicks was healthy, he was the most dynamic slot receiver in the league. And not in the "he's dynamic because we have to come up with a reason why getting rid of Welker makes sense" way that Amendola is, but in the 18.7 yards per reception way. That dropped in 2012 to the still respectable 12.7 yards per reception. What Cruz really showed in 2012 was that he wasn't a one-year wonder. There was no way he was repeating the ridiculous 2011, but he held his own as the focus of opposing defenses. He's not going away, especially with that shiny new contract.
