The AFC, a.k.a. the "Brady, Manning and four 'Fill-In-Team-Here' Conference"
6.) Cincinnati Bengals (10-6 = 391-320)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 391 ptf (12th) 320 pta (8th), 5,323 yf (22nd), 5,115 ya (6th)
= Outsiders: 6.1% team (12th), -1.8% off (17th), -3.8% def (10th), 4.1% st (7th)
= Burke's: 0.51 team (13th), 19th off, 7th def
Offense: The Bengals offense just hasn't been very good outside of one great player. AJ Green is phenomenal. He is close to uncoverable 1-on-1. He can run almost every route, and Dalton has good chemistry with him. One thing to note is the drop in Green'y production in the last six games. Now, the team's offensive production was down, but a large part of that was Green. He had 10 TDs through 10 games, and had just one over the last 6. Some of that production is on Dalton as well, who had a pretty rough four game stretch to end the season. His overall stats are decent, and he can play hot, but he is a little too inaccurate. Another issue is there are too many secondary targets. Jermaine Gresham is the main one, but there are too many players competing for that #2 receiver spot (Hawkins, Jones, Tate). The run game is consistent, but Green-Ellis may be a little banged up. Another issue is the o-line hasn't been great in pass protection, as Dalton was dropped 46 times. Overall, just an average offense in a league where most playoff teams have good ones. Rank: 6th
Defense: The Bengals defense, however, has been great in recent weeks, and not only because of one great, great player. Geno Atkins is the main guy, the best 4-3 DT in the NFL right now. The 3rd year player led all interior lineman with 12.5 sacks, and was pretty consistent throughout the year. The rest of the D-Line is a mix of young players (Michael Johnson, Carlos Dunlap) and retreads that have found new life (Wallace Gilberry), and they provide a great pass rush. The linebackers are mostly JAGs, but rookie Vontaze Burfict had a surprisingly good season. The Bengals secondary also is a mix of JAGs, but their corners go five deep. Other than Leon Hall, none of them are close to stars, but they are all decent at coverage, and can matchup well with deep offenses. Overall, the Bengals defense has been on a roll. Since their loss to Denver put them at 3-5, they won 7 of 8 to end the season. Other than the Week 17 rest game, the most yards they gave up was 318 to the Giants. The most points they gave up was 20 to the Cowboys. They are playing really, really well right now. Rank: 2nd
QB: Andy Dalton might be a very good player three or four years from now. Right now, he is something like early career Joe Flacco. It is commendable that he made the playoffs again, something that few expected from the Bengals, but it has become obvious that he and the offense are holding them back. Dalton did not play well in last year's playoff game, but few rookies do. Overall, in a deep AFC Playoff QB group, Dalton just doesn't stack up, and while he is better in almost every way this year, with the talent he has around him, getting slightly better everywhere isn't good enough. Rank: 6th
Coach: It is hard to really judge a guy like Marvin Lewis. He should be commended for doing so well for so long in Cincinnati, something no one has done since Sam Wyche. He transitioned his team from an offense-heavy club back in 2005-2007, to a defense first one that has made the playoffs three times in four year. The only thing that eludes him is a playoff win. He's terrible with challenges but generally very good with going for it on 4th down, which is more important. Overall, he is perfectly average for a playoff coach. Rank: 4th
Interesting Note: This is the first time since the Colts and Patriots met in the 2003 & 2004 playoffs that two teams played in two straight playoffs. This is the first time both games were in the same round and the same time that I could reasonably expect to look up.
Top-2 Seed They Can't Beat: Denver, because they don't match up well with Denver's defense. Denver's defense has a great pass rush, which could get to Dalton a lot, and a stable of corners to cover the Bengals various weapons.
Top-2 Seed They Can Beat: New England, because they have the defense to slow down the Patriots, with a good pass rush up the interior that can get at the Patriots weakness at the o-line position, and their offense should have time against a mediocre pass rush.
5.) Indianapolis Colts (11-5 = 357-387)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 357 ptf (18th), 387 pta (21st), 5,799 ydf (10th), 5,988 yda (26th)
= Outsiders: -16.0% team (25th), -2.9% off (18th), 14.0% def (31st), 0.9% st (12th)
= Burke's: 0.44 team (24th), 16th off, 30th def
Offense: The Colts offense was actually quite good at piling up yards through 12 games. After their shock comeback against the Lions, the Colts were 3rd in the league in yards. Then, in the last four weeks the Colts didn't get to 300 yards. Of course, they went 3-1 anyway. I still have no idea how they have done it, but the offense is at least respectable. They can sustain drives (4th in yards-per-drive), which limits how much their defense is on the field. The o-line is terrible, but Luck handles the rush well for a rookie. The x-factor is Donnie Avery, who has been mostly bad, but has gotten open quite a bit. Teams will work to take out Wayne and Hilton, so Avery has to step up, but I don't think he will. The run game has also cooled off in recent weeks, getting over 100 yards once in the last six games (though their low in that time was 81). Vick Ballard seemed to hit something of a rookie wall late. The good news is Coby Fleener has returned and looked more comfortable in his role. Overall, I think the team has an upside, but the offense was tiring late in the season. Rank: 5th
Defense: The defense is terrible. I know this. Most Colts fans know this. Most statheads know this. They have little talent because of injuries and free agent losses. They have their two best players still adjusting to a new position. They have their best safety playing average for him. They lost all their original Defensive Tackles (they weren't any good anyway), and are playing with a few street free agents in the secondary (Cassius Vaughn, Darius Butler). The Colts defense is not very good. Yet, they have a penchant for either giving up 30+ or less than 20. Just look at their last 11 games (following the weird 35-9 loss to the Jets), the Colts gave up 13, 13, 20, 10, 59, 13, 33, 23, 29, 13, 16. The better part was their defense in the 2nd half, which in all of those low scoring games they shut down opponents in the 2nd half. It was a great performance all around, but the hidden factor was that was mostly against mediocre to bad offenses. They aren't getting any of those in the playoffs. Rank: 6th
QB: Andrew Luck will be a star. What he has done with no offensive line, an average running game, four rookies among his top six receiving weapons, and a terrible defense is just amazing. But he wasn't a great rookie in what he needs to do to win in the playoffs. He is a little cavalier with the ball, and will give Baltimore (or any other team) chances for turnovers. He is a little too inaccurate. Everything is there for Luck's future, but his present isn't the greatest. Rank: 5th
Coach: I have no idea how to accurately rank or judge the Colts coaching staff. Their defense seems to adjust really well in the 2nd halves of games. The big problem I have with the Colts coaching staff (and maybe Pagano will be different than Arians) was that they were incredibly conservative on 4th down once again. That won't fly in the playoffs. Also, their offense is built like Pittsburgh's old offense, with too many deep routes for a putrid o-line to protect. Rank: 6th
Interesting Note: The Colts of course were in Baltimore, and instead of Baltimore exacting revenge, the Colts have kicked Baltimore when they are down, beating them in the playoffs in both 2006 and 2009.
Top-2 Seed They Can't Beat: Both teams. They aren't any good, and I don't think New England or Denver will fear them at all.
Top-2 Seed They Can Beat: The 2008 Carolina Panthers, maybe. Again, they aren't very good.
4.) Baltimore Ravens (10-6 = 398-344)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 398 ptf (10th), 344 pta (12th), 5,640 ydf (16th), 5,615 yda (17th)
= Outsiders: 9.8% (8th), 3.0% off (13th), 2.2% def (19th), 9.0% st (1st)
= Burke's: 0.49 team (19th), 17th off, 16th def
Offense: The Ravens are what they always are for the past four years, but this time, they have the best offense in the Flacco era. They aren't the most efficient (that was the 2009 crew), or the most inventive (the 2008 team). But they may be the best, or at least the best Ravens offense in terms of what they could be. Obviously, the Ravens offense struggled mightily late in the season and that ended with the firing of Cam Cameron. The offense is decidedly mediocre, but the pieces are there, and like we saw in the Giants game, or the Patriots game in Week 3, the Ravens offense can be really good. Torrey Smith is healthy and playing well. Anquan Boldin is healthy. Ray Rice's limited use makes him a little more fresh now than what he was. The best part of the offense is they rarely turn the ball over, with just 16 all year. That bodes well against a possible New England game who relies on turnovers on defense. Rank: 3rd
Defense: I can't believe I am so down on the Ravens defense. Now, they have played considerably better the last few weeks. They were a mess early in the season, but post-bye, they were mostly a lot better. The defense is healthier now than they were at any time since the game where Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb went down. Oddly, Lewis may have been a bigger loss, as their run defense fell more than their pass defense, though that might be lingering injuries to Suggs and injuries to other linebackers. The secondary has come together to some degree, with Cary Williams and Corey Graham played quite well. The pass rush has also come together in piecemeal form. At the end though, most of the defenses in the AFC are better, and if the Ravens are going anywhere, it is because that offense plays up to potential, not if the defense can magically heal hurt players. Rank: 5th
QB: It is hard to really be down on a guy who has made five straight postseasons as a starting QB, but Flacco is so maddening. He can look great, like he did against New England, the Giants, San Diego and a couple other games. Then he can look awful. It really comes down to protection, as if he has time to set his feet, he can be great. Flacco is also great at taking care of the ball, which is key in the postseason. Rank: 3rd
Coach: John Harbaugh has been here before. He may not be the best coach, and most people would probably take his brother over him, but Harbaugh is generally good in time management, goes for it on 4th down, and his teams are always prepared. Hard to really argue with what Harbaugh has done. Rank: 2nd
Interesting Stat: The Ravens are better at home, but that increase is mostly on offense. The Ravens average 31.8 ppg and 400 yards at home against 18 ppg and 304 yards on the road. The defense is more consistent, but actually better on the road, giving up 22.4 ppg and 360 yards at home against just 20.6 ppg and 341.9 yards on the road.
Top-2 Seed They Can't Beat: Denver. Just a terrible matchup. We have already seen this game just four weeks ago, in Baltimore and the Ravens didn't come close. They couldn't block the Ravens front, and Manning just knows how to kill that Baltimore defense.
Top-2 Seed They Can Beat: New England. They love playing the Patriots as everyone in the Ravens locker room truly feels like they can beat New England any time, any place. Flacco plays well against the Pats flaccid rush and coverage, and they limit turnovers against a defense that needs to force them.
3.) Houston Texans (12-4 = 416-331)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 416 ptf (8th), 331 pta (9th), 5,953 ydf (7th), 5,172 yda (7th)
= Outsiders: 6.6% team (11th), 0.1% off (16th), -14.2% def (3rd), -7.7% st (32nd)
= Burke's: 0.57 team (7th), 12th off, 10th def
Offense: The Texans offense is the one offense that needs a lead, but if they get a lead (or avoid trailing by multiple scores), they can be great. Let's start with the run game. Arian Foster has had a pedestrian year, which I think has to do more with the o-line being injured and replacing two starters. What Foster was good at is important though. He was still great in the red zone, and was really consistent, with 11 games with y/a between 3 and 5. Then the passing game features the AFC's new whipping boy Matt Schaub. Again, it is because of some noticeable prime-time failures against Green Bay and New England (though it is hard to look good when Rodgers and Brady are on fire), and two bad performances to end the season. It is hard to argue with that, but he still completes a lot of passes, and since Andre Johnson got healthy, he has been a monster in the 2nd half of the season, with just two games with less than 90 yards in the 2nd half. They still have the firepower, but it is all about confidence and staying in a game. Rank: 4th
Defense: To me, the Texans defense is a bigger part of their epic fall from the presumptive #1 seed to the #3 seed. The Texans defense started the season playing brilliantly at every level. Kareem Jackson looked to have turned a corner. Their two safeties were playing great in man coverage. Antonio Smith was playing great, as was Brian Cushing. And of course there was Watt. Now, other than Watt, none of those player continued it. They were hurt with injuries to both Cushing and Jonathan Joseph, but even after Joseph returned the defense didn't get that much better. A big problem they have had is generating a pass rush outside of Watt (who has 22 of their 46 sacks), but Connor Barwin seemed to be playing better at the end of the season. Another issue is their run defense, which gave up over 100 yards 5 times in the last 8 games (ironically, one of the three exceptions was against Minnesota). That has to change. Rank: 3rd
QB: I have a bone to pick with the common belief that Matt Schaub is some fraud QB. Let's not forget that this guy threw for 4,770 yards and 29 TDs, completing 67.9% of his passes back in 2009. He was even more efficient last year before the injury. Of course, this is 2012. Maybe he is hurt, because some of his throws late in the season just looked off. Schaub is better than what he has been late in the season, but can he regain form quickly? Rank: 4th
Coach: Gary Kubiak can scheme an offense, but he can't manage a game. He is undecesive and too conservative on offense. He runs Arian Foster too much. Wade Phillips on the other side hasn't been too good in the postseason, and his defense hasn't adjusted to losses in personnel. It needs to, and soon. Rank: 5th
Interesting Note: I was trying to think of another team that had dropped from a top-2 seed (let alone the #1 seed) to having to play in divisional weekend that quickly. The one team I immediately thought of was the 2006 Colts, who started 9-0 and had a two game lead over both San Diego and Baltimore, who both ended up passing the Colts who finished 3-4. Of course, those Colts won the Super Bowl. Lesson: don't overrate late-season performance.
Top-2 Seed They Can't Beat: New England, we all saw that game. We all saw them unable to pressure Brady with anyone not named Watt. We saw them unable to run against a stout front, or throw to anyone not named Johnson. If they do meet, it probably will be closer, but the matchup issues aren't just going away.
Top-2 Seed They Can Beat: Denver. I realize New England beat Denver by 10 and had a 31-7 lead, but no team dominated Denver like Houston did. Houston dominated them, and led by 20 despite not getting a turnover. They forced Manning into quick throws all game. The Texans are different now, but their matchup advantages still hold.
2.) New England Patriots (12-4 = 557-331)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 557 ptf (1st), 331 pta (9th), 6,846 ydf (1st), 5,972 yda (25th)
= Outsiders: 34.9% team (3rd), 30.8% off (1st), 1.3% def (15th), 5.5% st (4th)
= Burke's: 0.57 team (6th), 1st off, 29th def
Offense: The Patriots offense is great, but I'll turn to advanced stats to say that it is not as good as the '07, '10 and '11 offenses. Some of that may be injuries to Gronk and Hernandez (both are back, if not 100%), and some may be rotating o-lineman, but part of it is also Brady. Brady, quietly, has been a little inaccurate this season, posting just a 63.0% completion percentage, his lowest since 2006. A lot of it is recent also, with six of his eight lowest completion percentage games coming in the 2nd half. The Patriots put up huge scoring numbers because they got a bunch of turnovers and short fields (if not defensive TDs). Part of it is also a running game that was fantastic early in the season, and was just merely very good in the 2nd half. Anyway, the o-line is still starting players that weren't supposed to be starting at the beginning of the season. It has shown at times, as Brady was sacked 27 times, but that number is actually in-line with his normal seasons. The offense has few holes, but one is still outside receiver, as Lloyd hasn't assimilated as many expected. He has had moments, but still seems to be on a different page with Brady at times. Then again, despite what everything I just said, the Patriots are pretty clearly the best offense in the NFL Rank: 1st
Defense: The Patriots defense ended up #9 in terms of points allowed, which is probably higher than their true value. The only reason of this is the fact that the Patriots forced an incredible number of turnovers, and mostly through fumbles (their INT numbers were normal). They didn't have a game without a takeaway (and 13 with multiple). We see the effect this has on their defense in the two advanced stats. Burke's stats devalue turnovers (because they are partly random and hard to forecast), and in his numbers the Patriots defense sucks, while Outsider's doesn't and to them the defense is average. I have no idea what it is, but they still have trouble stopping the passer, but if they can continue to force a bunch of fumbles and recover a lot of them, their defense should be fine. Rob Ninkovich got hurt in the last game, but reports are he should be back. Don't look too much into a freak 7 sack game against Miami, this pass rush is still average at best. Good o-lines should have a lot of time to work with. Aqib Talib has been an improvement, but he hasn't stayed healthy. A good way to look at the Pats defense is Pats fans are clamoring for an average 7th round pick (Alfonzo Dennard) to come back from inury. Then again, if they keep forcing takeaways and fumbles, they should be fine. I just wonder what happens if one day in January they don't force that turnover they have relied on. Rank: 5th
QB: Tom Brady, as I mentioned, has been slightly inaccurate this year. Of course, he is still ranked #1 in both DVOA and DYAR (Football Outsiders' two main defense-adjusted statistics), although a lot of that is adjustments for the defenses he has faced. That still doesn't explain his strange inaccuracy at times. Brady has started lofting his deep throws, which is another strange thing, but hey, it mostly works. Again, I am trying to nit-pick. Tom Brady is still awesome. Rank: 2nd
Coach: Bill Belichick has 17 career playoff wins. The other five coaches have won 11 combined. Belichick is one of the top five coaches of all time, and although he has strange moments of conservatism (the end of the Cardinals game), it is hard to fault him for in-game management. Rank: 1st
Interesting Stat: How important was the Patriots getting a bye? In their five trips to the Super Bowl, they always had one of the Top-2 seeds, and this pushed back a potential road game (and if Denver gets knocked off, they won't have any) which keeps them comfortable, as the Patriots haven't played a true road playoff game since the 2006 AFC Championship in Indianapolis.
1.) Denver Broncos (13-3 = 481-289)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 481 ptf (2nd), 289 pta (4th), 6,366 ydf (4th), 4,652 yda (2nd)
= Outsiders: 36.6% team (2nd), 22.1% off (2nd), -13.8% def (5th), 0.7% st (13th)
= Burke's: 0.72 team (1st), 2nd off, 2nd def
Offense: How consistent are the Broncos offense? They were only once held under 20 points (and it took two missed field goals for it to happen). Their lowest yardage output this season was 333 against Tampa. In their 11-game win streak they crossed 30 points 9 times. Manning's offense has become a machine late in the season. Yes, they didn't play the best teams, but most of the bad teams they played were bad offensively, not defensively. Manning's gotten lucky that his targets have stayed healthy all year. Decker and Thomas are mightly efficient (ranking #3 and #4 in receiving DYAR), and Stokey is incredibly efficient (#2 in receiving DVOA). The tight ends were used more late in the season. The run game can be an issue with fumbles, but in their last 7 games, they ran for 133, 95, 91, 140, 163, 118 and 172 yards. Their o-line is banged up, but with Chris Kuper coming back for the playoffs it should get better. They play really well at home, and are perfectly situated to put up big numbers in the playoffs. Rank: 2nd
Defense: What is scary about this Broncos team is that they are arguably better defensively than offensively. They rank 4th in points allowed and 2nd in yards allowed. They are top-5 in pass and rush defense DVOA. The most yards they gave up in their winning streak was 366 to Cincinnati, and overall they allowed less than 300 yards 10 times. It obviously revolves around Von Miller who was incredible against both rush and pass, but Dumervil quietly had a great season, and they got great value out of underrated players inside, like rookie Derrick Wolfe (6 sacks) and Kevin Vickerson. They continue to start Keith Brooking, which could create issues against a TE-heavy offense like New England, but they started replacing him more in nickle packages late. Their secondary is deep and all their corners, especially unknown Tony Carter and Chris Harris, are playing well. Overall, their opponents gained fewer yards per drive than any other team in the NFL, and more drives ended in punts than any other team. The Broncos defense is very good, and with the Broncos getting leads early, the defense gets that much better. Rank: 1st
QB: Peyton Manning was brilliant this season. Yes, he didn't face the best teams, but he faced some good defenses in his run (Cincinnati, San Diego, Carolina, Baltimore are all above average pass defenses) and performed well against all of them. His arm looks fine, but even then his mind is more than fine. The chemistry he has with both Decker and Thomas this soon is incredible. Manning is a machine right now. Rank: 1st
Coach: John Fox has had a good track record in the playoffs, with a 6-4 record in his four trips, including taking a less-than-talented Panthers team to a Super Bowl and an NFC Title Game two years later. He was conservative in Carolina but has become more daring this season with a better offense. Jack Del Rio has also gone away from his normal conservative defense and been very aggressive, which he will need to do against New England potentially. I trust these veteran coaches to do it, though. Rank: 3rd
Interesting Stat: The years that the Super Bowl is on CBS has usually meant good things for Peyton Manning. In 2003, the Colts finally broke through in the playoffs making the AFC Title Game. In 2006, the Colts won the Super Bowl. In 2009, the Colts lost the Super Bowl. And now we are in 2012. Can it continue?
Coming Tomorrow: The NFC Primer
6.) Cincinnati Bengals (10-6 = 391-320)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 391 ptf (12th) 320 pta (8th), 5,323 yf (22nd), 5,115 ya (6th)
= Outsiders: 6.1% team (12th), -1.8% off (17th), -3.8% def (10th), 4.1% st (7th)
= Burke's: 0.51 team (13th), 19th off, 7th def
Offense: The Bengals offense just hasn't been very good outside of one great player. AJ Green is phenomenal. He is close to uncoverable 1-on-1. He can run almost every route, and Dalton has good chemistry with him. One thing to note is the drop in Green'y production in the last six games. Now, the team's offensive production was down, but a large part of that was Green. He had 10 TDs through 10 games, and had just one over the last 6. Some of that production is on Dalton as well, who had a pretty rough four game stretch to end the season. His overall stats are decent, and he can play hot, but he is a little too inaccurate. Another issue is there are too many secondary targets. Jermaine Gresham is the main one, but there are too many players competing for that #2 receiver spot (Hawkins, Jones, Tate). The run game is consistent, but Green-Ellis may be a little banged up. Another issue is the o-line hasn't been great in pass protection, as Dalton was dropped 46 times. Overall, just an average offense in a league where most playoff teams have good ones. Rank: 6th
Defense: The Bengals defense, however, has been great in recent weeks, and not only because of one great, great player. Geno Atkins is the main guy, the best 4-3 DT in the NFL right now. The 3rd year player led all interior lineman with 12.5 sacks, and was pretty consistent throughout the year. The rest of the D-Line is a mix of young players (Michael Johnson, Carlos Dunlap) and retreads that have found new life (Wallace Gilberry), and they provide a great pass rush. The linebackers are mostly JAGs, but rookie Vontaze Burfict had a surprisingly good season. The Bengals secondary also is a mix of JAGs, but their corners go five deep. Other than Leon Hall, none of them are close to stars, but they are all decent at coverage, and can matchup well with deep offenses. Overall, the Bengals defense has been on a roll. Since their loss to Denver put them at 3-5, they won 7 of 8 to end the season. Other than the Week 17 rest game, the most yards they gave up was 318 to the Giants. The most points they gave up was 20 to the Cowboys. They are playing really, really well right now. Rank: 2nd
QB: Andy Dalton might be a very good player three or four years from now. Right now, he is something like early career Joe Flacco. It is commendable that he made the playoffs again, something that few expected from the Bengals, but it has become obvious that he and the offense are holding them back. Dalton did not play well in last year's playoff game, but few rookies do. Overall, in a deep AFC Playoff QB group, Dalton just doesn't stack up, and while he is better in almost every way this year, with the talent he has around him, getting slightly better everywhere isn't good enough. Rank: 6th
Coach: It is hard to really judge a guy like Marvin Lewis. He should be commended for doing so well for so long in Cincinnati, something no one has done since Sam Wyche. He transitioned his team from an offense-heavy club back in 2005-2007, to a defense first one that has made the playoffs three times in four year. The only thing that eludes him is a playoff win. He's terrible with challenges but generally very good with going for it on 4th down, which is more important. Overall, he is perfectly average for a playoff coach. Rank: 4th
Interesting Note: This is the first time since the Colts and Patriots met in the 2003 & 2004 playoffs that two teams played in two straight playoffs. This is the first time both games were in the same round and the same time that I could reasonably expect to look up.
Top-2 Seed They Can't Beat: Denver, because they don't match up well with Denver's defense. Denver's defense has a great pass rush, which could get to Dalton a lot, and a stable of corners to cover the Bengals various weapons.
Top-2 Seed They Can Beat: New England, because they have the defense to slow down the Patriots, with a good pass rush up the interior that can get at the Patriots weakness at the o-line position, and their offense should have time against a mediocre pass rush.
5.) Indianapolis Colts (11-5 = 357-387)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 357 ptf (18th), 387 pta (21st), 5,799 ydf (10th), 5,988 yda (26th)
= Outsiders: -16.0% team (25th), -2.9% off (18th), 14.0% def (31st), 0.9% st (12th)
= Burke's: 0.44 team (24th), 16th off, 30th def
Offense: The Colts offense was actually quite good at piling up yards through 12 games. After their shock comeback against the Lions, the Colts were 3rd in the league in yards. Then, in the last four weeks the Colts didn't get to 300 yards. Of course, they went 3-1 anyway. I still have no idea how they have done it, but the offense is at least respectable. They can sustain drives (4th in yards-per-drive), which limits how much their defense is on the field. The o-line is terrible, but Luck handles the rush well for a rookie. The x-factor is Donnie Avery, who has been mostly bad, but has gotten open quite a bit. Teams will work to take out Wayne and Hilton, so Avery has to step up, but I don't think he will. The run game has also cooled off in recent weeks, getting over 100 yards once in the last six games (though their low in that time was 81). Vick Ballard seemed to hit something of a rookie wall late. The good news is Coby Fleener has returned and looked more comfortable in his role. Overall, I think the team has an upside, but the offense was tiring late in the season. Rank: 5th
Defense: The defense is terrible. I know this. Most Colts fans know this. Most statheads know this. They have little talent because of injuries and free agent losses. They have their two best players still adjusting to a new position. They have their best safety playing average for him. They lost all their original Defensive Tackles (they weren't any good anyway), and are playing with a few street free agents in the secondary (Cassius Vaughn, Darius Butler). The Colts defense is not very good. Yet, they have a penchant for either giving up 30+ or less than 20. Just look at their last 11 games (following the weird 35-9 loss to the Jets), the Colts gave up 13, 13, 20, 10, 59, 13, 33, 23, 29, 13, 16. The better part was their defense in the 2nd half, which in all of those low scoring games they shut down opponents in the 2nd half. It was a great performance all around, but the hidden factor was that was mostly against mediocre to bad offenses. They aren't getting any of those in the playoffs. Rank: 6th
QB: Andrew Luck will be a star. What he has done with no offensive line, an average running game, four rookies among his top six receiving weapons, and a terrible defense is just amazing. But he wasn't a great rookie in what he needs to do to win in the playoffs. He is a little cavalier with the ball, and will give Baltimore (or any other team) chances for turnovers. He is a little too inaccurate. Everything is there for Luck's future, but his present isn't the greatest. Rank: 5th
Coach: I have no idea how to accurately rank or judge the Colts coaching staff. Their defense seems to adjust really well in the 2nd halves of games. The big problem I have with the Colts coaching staff (and maybe Pagano will be different than Arians) was that they were incredibly conservative on 4th down once again. That won't fly in the playoffs. Also, their offense is built like Pittsburgh's old offense, with too many deep routes for a putrid o-line to protect. Rank: 6th
Interesting Note: The Colts of course were in Baltimore, and instead of Baltimore exacting revenge, the Colts have kicked Baltimore when they are down, beating them in the playoffs in both 2006 and 2009.
Top-2 Seed They Can't Beat: Both teams. They aren't any good, and I don't think New England or Denver will fear them at all.
Top-2 Seed They Can Beat: The 2008 Carolina Panthers, maybe. Again, they aren't very good.
4.) Baltimore Ravens (10-6 = 398-344)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 398 ptf (10th), 344 pta (12th), 5,640 ydf (16th), 5,615 yda (17th)
= Outsiders: 9.8% (8th), 3.0% off (13th), 2.2% def (19th), 9.0% st (1st)
= Burke's: 0.49 team (19th), 17th off, 16th def
Offense: The Ravens are what they always are for the past four years, but this time, they have the best offense in the Flacco era. They aren't the most efficient (that was the 2009 crew), or the most inventive (the 2008 team). But they may be the best, or at least the best Ravens offense in terms of what they could be. Obviously, the Ravens offense struggled mightily late in the season and that ended with the firing of Cam Cameron. The offense is decidedly mediocre, but the pieces are there, and like we saw in the Giants game, or the Patriots game in Week 3, the Ravens offense can be really good. Torrey Smith is healthy and playing well. Anquan Boldin is healthy. Ray Rice's limited use makes him a little more fresh now than what he was. The best part of the offense is they rarely turn the ball over, with just 16 all year. That bodes well against a possible New England game who relies on turnovers on defense. Rank: 3rd
Defense: I can't believe I am so down on the Ravens defense. Now, they have played considerably better the last few weeks. They were a mess early in the season, but post-bye, they were mostly a lot better. The defense is healthier now than they were at any time since the game where Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb went down. Oddly, Lewis may have been a bigger loss, as their run defense fell more than their pass defense, though that might be lingering injuries to Suggs and injuries to other linebackers. The secondary has come together to some degree, with Cary Williams and Corey Graham played quite well. The pass rush has also come together in piecemeal form. At the end though, most of the defenses in the AFC are better, and if the Ravens are going anywhere, it is because that offense plays up to potential, not if the defense can magically heal hurt players. Rank: 5th
QB: It is hard to really be down on a guy who has made five straight postseasons as a starting QB, but Flacco is so maddening. He can look great, like he did against New England, the Giants, San Diego and a couple other games. Then he can look awful. It really comes down to protection, as if he has time to set his feet, he can be great. Flacco is also great at taking care of the ball, which is key in the postseason. Rank: 3rd
Coach: John Harbaugh has been here before. He may not be the best coach, and most people would probably take his brother over him, but Harbaugh is generally good in time management, goes for it on 4th down, and his teams are always prepared. Hard to really argue with what Harbaugh has done. Rank: 2nd
Interesting Stat: The Ravens are better at home, but that increase is mostly on offense. The Ravens average 31.8 ppg and 400 yards at home against 18 ppg and 304 yards on the road. The defense is more consistent, but actually better on the road, giving up 22.4 ppg and 360 yards at home against just 20.6 ppg and 341.9 yards on the road.
Top-2 Seed They Can't Beat: Denver. Just a terrible matchup. We have already seen this game just four weeks ago, in Baltimore and the Ravens didn't come close. They couldn't block the Ravens front, and Manning just knows how to kill that Baltimore defense.
Top-2 Seed They Can Beat: New England. They love playing the Patriots as everyone in the Ravens locker room truly feels like they can beat New England any time, any place. Flacco plays well against the Pats flaccid rush and coverage, and they limit turnovers against a defense that needs to force them.
3.) Houston Texans (12-4 = 416-331)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 416 ptf (8th), 331 pta (9th), 5,953 ydf (7th), 5,172 yda (7th)
= Outsiders: 6.6% team (11th), 0.1% off (16th), -14.2% def (3rd), -7.7% st (32nd)
= Burke's: 0.57 team (7th), 12th off, 10th def
Offense: The Texans offense is the one offense that needs a lead, but if they get a lead (or avoid trailing by multiple scores), they can be great. Let's start with the run game. Arian Foster has had a pedestrian year, which I think has to do more with the o-line being injured and replacing two starters. What Foster was good at is important though. He was still great in the red zone, and was really consistent, with 11 games with y/a between 3 and 5. Then the passing game features the AFC's new whipping boy Matt Schaub. Again, it is because of some noticeable prime-time failures against Green Bay and New England (though it is hard to look good when Rodgers and Brady are on fire), and two bad performances to end the season. It is hard to argue with that, but he still completes a lot of passes, and since Andre Johnson got healthy, he has been a monster in the 2nd half of the season, with just two games with less than 90 yards in the 2nd half. They still have the firepower, but it is all about confidence and staying in a game. Rank: 4th
Defense: To me, the Texans defense is a bigger part of their epic fall from the presumptive #1 seed to the #3 seed. The Texans defense started the season playing brilliantly at every level. Kareem Jackson looked to have turned a corner. Their two safeties were playing great in man coverage. Antonio Smith was playing great, as was Brian Cushing. And of course there was Watt. Now, other than Watt, none of those player continued it. They were hurt with injuries to both Cushing and Jonathan Joseph, but even after Joseph returned the defense didn't get that much better. A big problem they have had is generating a pass rush outside of Watt (who has 22 of their 46 sacks), but Connor Barwin seemed to be playing better at the end of the season. Another issue is their run defense, which gave up over 100 yards 5 times in the last 8 games (ironically, one of the three exceptions was against Minnesota). That has to change. Rank: 3rd
QB: I have a bone to pick with the common belief that Matt Schaub is some fraud QB. Let's not forget that this guy threw for 4,770 yards and 29 TDs, completing 67.9% of his passes back in 2009. He was even more efficient last year before the injury. Of course, this is 2012. Maybe he is hurt, because some of his throws late in the season just looked off. Schaub is better than what he has been late in the season, but can he regain form quickly? Rank: 4th
Coach: Gary Kubiak can scheme an offense, but he can't manage a game. He is undecesive and too conservative on offense. He runs Arian Foster too much. Wade Phillips on the other side hasn't been too good in the postseason, and his defense hasn't adjusted to losses in personnel. It needs to, and soon. Rank: 5th
Interesting Note: I was trying to think of another team that had dropped from a top-2 seed (let alone the #1 seed) to having to play in divisional weekend that quickly. The one team I immediately thought of was the 2006 Colts, who started 9-0 and had a two game lead over both San Diego and Baltimore, who both ended up passing the Colts who finished 3-4. Of course, those Colts won the Super Bowl. Lesson: don't overrate late-season performance.
Top-2 Seed They Can't Beat: New England, we all saw that game. We all saw them unable to pressure Brady with anyone not named Watt. We saw them unable to run against a stout front, or throw to anyone not named Johnson. If they do meet, it probably will be closer, but the matchup issues aren't just going away.
Top-2 Seed They Can Beat: Denver. I realize New England beat Denver by 10 and had a 31-7 lead, but no team dominated Denver like Houston did. Houston dominated them, and led by 20 despite not getting a turnover. They forced Manning into quick throws all game. The Texans are different now, but their matchup advantages still hold.
2.) New England Patriots (12-4 = 557-331)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 557 ptf (1st), 331 pta (9th), 6,846 ydf (1st), 5,972 yda (25th)
= Outsiders: 34.9% team (3rd), 30.8% off (1st), 1.3% def (15th), 5.5% st (4th)
= Burke's: 0.57 team (6th), 1st off, 29th def
Offense: The Patriots offense is great, but I'll turn to advanced stats to say that it is not as good as the '07, '10 and '11 offenses. Some of that may be injuries to Gronk and Hernandez (both are back, if not 100%), and some may be rotating o-lineman, but part of it is also Brady. Brady, quietly, has been a little inaccurate this season, posting just a 63.0% completion percentage, his lowest since 2006. A lot of it is recent also, with six of his eight lowest completion percentage games coming in the 2nd half. The Patriots put up huge scoring numbers because they got a bunch of turnovers and short fields (if not defensive TDs). Part of it is also a running game that was fantastic early in the season, and was just merely very good in the 2nd half. Anyway, the o-line is still starting players that weren't supposed to be starting at the beginning of the season. It has shown at times, as Brady was sacked 27 times, but that number is actually in-line with his normal seasons. The offense has few holes, but one is still outside receiver, as Lloyd hasn't assimilated as many expected. He has had moments, but still seems to be on a different page with Brady at times. Then again, despite what everything I just said, the Patriots are pretty clearly the best offense in the NFL Rank: 1st
Defense: The Patriots defense ended up #9 in terms of points allowed, which is probably higher than their true value. The only reason of this is the fact that the Patriots forced an incredible number of turnovers, and mostly through fumbles (their INT numbers were normal). They didn't have a game without a takeaway (and 13 with multiple). We see the effect this has on their defense in the two advanced stats. Burke's stats devalue turnovers (because they are partly random and hard to forecast), and in his numbers the Patriots defense sucks, while Outsider's doesn't and to them the defense is average. I have no idea what it is, but they still have trouble stopping the passer, but if they can continue to force a bunch of fumbles and recover a lot of them, their defense should be fine. Rob Ninkovich got hurt in the last game, but reports are he should be back. Don't look too much into a freak 7 sack game against Miami, this pass rush is still average at best. Good o-lines should have a lot of time to work with. Aqib Talib has been an improvement, but he hasn't stayed healthy. A good way to look at the Pats defense is Pats fans are clamoring for an average 7th round pick (Alfonzo Dennard) to come back from inury. Then again, if they keep forcing takeaways and fumbles, they should be fine. I just wonder what happens if one day in January they don't force that turnover they have relied on. Rank: 5th
QB: Tom Brady, as I mentioned, has been slightly inaccurate this year. Of course, he is still ranked #1 in both DVOA and DYAR (Football Outsiders' two main defense-adjusted statistics), although a lot of that is adjustments for the defenses he has faced. That still doesn't explain his strange inaccuracy at times. Brady has started lofting his deep throws, which is another strange thing, but hey, it mostly works. Again, I am trying to nit-pick. Tom Brady is still awesome. Rank: 2nd
Coach: Bill Belichick has 17 career playoff wins. The other five coaches have won 11 combined. Belichick is one of the top five coaches of all time, and although he has strange moments of conservatism (the end of the Cardinals game), it is hard to fault him for in-game management. Rank: 1st
Interesting Stat: How important was the Patriots getting a bye? In their five trips to the Super Bowl, they always had one of the Top-2 seeds, and this pushed back a potential road game (and if Denver gets knocked off, they won't have any) which keeps them comfortable, as the Patriots haven't played a true road playoff game since the 2006 AFC Championship in Indianapolis.
1.) Denver Broncos (13-3 = 481-289)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 481 ptf (2nd), 289 pta (4th), 6,366 ydf (4th), 4,652 yda (2nd)
= Outsiders: 36.6% team (2nd), 22.1% off (2nd), -13.8% def (5th), 0.7% st (13th)
= Burke's: 0.72 team (1st), 2nd off, 2nd def
Offense: How consistent are the Broncos offense? They were only once held under 20 points (and it took two missed field goals for it to happen). Their lowest yardage output this season was 333 against Tampa. In their 11-game win streak they crossed 30 points 9 times. Manning's offense has become a machine late in the season. Yes, they didn't play the best teams, but most of the bad teams they played were bad offensively, not defensively. Manning's gotten lucky that his targets have stayed healthy all year. Decker and Thomas are mightly efficient (ranking #3 and #4 in receiving DYAR), and Stokey is incredibly efficient (#2 in receiving DVOA). The tight ends were used more late in the season. The run game can be an issue with fumbles, but in their last 7 games, they ran for 133, 95, 91, 140, 163, 118 and 172 yards. Their o-line is banged up, but with Chris Kuper coming back for the playoffs it should get better. They play really well at home, and are perfectly situated to put up big numbers in the playoffs. Rank: 2nd
Defense: What is scary about this Broncos team is that they are arguably better defensively than offensively. They rank 4th in points allowed and 2nd in yards allowed. They are top-5 in pass and rush defense DVOA. The most yards they gave up in their winning streak was 366 to Cincinnati, and overall they allowed less than 300 yards 10 times. It obviously revolves around Von Miller who was incredible against both rush and pass, but Dumervil quietly had a great season, and they got great value out of underrated players inside, like rookie Derrick Wolfe (6 sacks) and Kevin Vickerson. They continue to start Keith Brooking, which could create issues against a TE-heavy offense like New England, but they started replacing him more in nickle packages late. Their secondary is deep and all their corners, especially unknown Tony Carter and Chris Harris, are playing well. Overall, their opponents gained fewer yards per drive than any other team in the NFL, and more drives ended in punts than any other team. The Broncos defense is very good, and with the Broncos getting leads early, the defense gets that much better. Rank: 1st
QB: Peyton Manning was brilliant this season. Yes, he didn't face the best teams, but he faced some good defenses in his run (Cincinnati, San Diego, Carolina, Baltimore are all above average pass defenses) and performed well against all of them. His arm looks fine, but even then his mind is more than fine. The chemistry he has with both Decker and Thomas this soon is incredible. Manning is a machine right now. Rank: 1st
Coach: John Fox has had a good track record in the playoffs, with a 6-4 record in his four trips, including taking a less-than-talented Panthers team to a Super Bowl and an NFC Title Game two years later. He was conservative in Carolina but has become more daring this season with a better offense. Jack Del Rio has also gone away from his normal conservative defense and been very aggressive, which he will need to do against New England potentially. I trust these veteran coaches to do it, though. Rank: 3rd
Interesting Stat: The years that the Super Bowl is on CBS has usually meant good things for Peyton Manning. In 2003, the Colts finally broke through in the playoffs making the AFC Title Game. In 2006, the Colts won the Super Bowl. In 2009, the Colts lost the Super Bowl. And now we are in 2012. Can it continue?
Coming Tomorrow: The NFC Primer
