Tuesday, December 18, 2012

NFL 2012: Week 16 Power Rankings & the Rest

Interesting week. So, I was able to successfully avoid finding out what went on until after my finals ended, and now that I'm all caught up (post-multiple heart attacks near the end of that crazy 49ers-Patriots game), I'm getting this thing done.


Looking Back at Last Week's Picks

Bengals (-4.5)  over  Eagles  (CORRECT  =  1-0  =  +1000)
Saints (-3.5)  over  Buccaneers  (CORRECT  =  2-0  =  +1000)
Rams (-3)  over  Vikings  (WRONG  =  2-1  =  -1000)
Jaguars (+7)  over  Dolphins  (WRONG  =  2-2  =  -1000)
Browns (+3)  over  Redskins  (WRONG  =  2-3  =  -1000)
Texans (-8.5)  over  Colts  (CORRECT  =  3-3  =  +1000)
Broncos (-2.5)  over  Ravens  (CORRECT  =  4-3  =  +1000)  (LOCK)
Giants (+1.5)  over  Falcons  (WRONG  =  4-4  =  -1000)
Bears (+3)  over  Packers  (WRONG  =  4-5  =  -1000)  (UPSET)
Panthers (+3)  over  Chargers  (CORRECT  =  5-5  =  +1000)
Raiders (-3.5*)  over  Chiefs  (CORRECT  =  6-5  =  +1000)
Cardinals (+6)  over  Lions  (CORRECT  =  7-5  =  +1000)
Seahawks (-5.5)  over  Bills  (CORRECT  =  8-5  =  +1000)
Steelers (-1.5)  over  Cowboys  (WRONG  =  8-6  =  -1000)
49ers (+5.5)  over  Patriots  (CORRECT  =  9-6  =  +1000)
Jets (+1.5)  over  Titans  (WRONG  =   9-7  =  -1000)


Week 16: 9-7; +2000  (UPSET: 0-1;  LOCK: 1-0)

Year-to-Date: 125-92-7  (+32,600)  (UPSET: 9-6;  LOCK: 12-3)

Best Picks: The only thing remotely close was my pick of the Texans over the Colts 31-17, and they won 29-17.


Power Rankings

AFC


2013 Isn't too Far Away


16.) Kansas City Chiefs  (2-12  =  195-367)

That was just depressing, and the Romeo Crennel era is going to have a slow, down-trodden, end.


15.) Jacksonville Jaguars  (2-12  =  219-838)

That was just depressing, and the Mike Mularkey era is starting with a slow, down-trodden year.


14.) Oakland Raiders  (4-10  =  263-402)

Has there ever been a more surprising shutout ever? The Raiders had given up 31 points per game coming into that game, and just dominated the Chiefs.


13.) Buffalo Bills  (5-9  =  306-402)

Another horrible performance in Toronto. The only good to come out of that is Toronto will want this team less and less.


12.) New York Jets  (6-8  =  255-320)

That ended the least-inspiring playoff chase ever, and thankfully that might end the Mark Sanchez era. Right now, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are all just fuming that they once lost playoff games to teams QBed by Mark Sanchez.


11.) Tennessee Titans  (5-9  =  285-396)

A decent win for a team that is probably close to maxing out its wins for the year. The Titans have become the new old Jaguars, where I am totally confused how they ended up with 5 wins.


10.) San Diego Chargers  (5-9  =  299-312)

They still have barely been outscored for the year, but that was just a terrible performance at home, and probably the lowering of the coffin of Norv Turner's career.


9.) Cleveland Browns  (5-9  =  280-310)

Tough loss, but losing to Kirk Cousins' led Redskins team is a little surprising for a team that had been competitive in every game so far. Very surprising to see them fall so flat.


8.) Miami Dolphins  (6-8  =  264-279)

Another Jekyll-and-Hyde performance by the Dolphins, who just dominated the Jaguars like a mediocre team should. The next step is what they do next year.


They'll Be There, but They'll be Frauds.

7.) Baltimore Ravens  (9-5  =  348-307)

The amazing thing is if the Colts and Ravens win just one game each, they'll face each other, meaning that either the Ravens or the Colts will be in the Divisional Round (which should make folks in Houston very, very happy). The Ravens are just so flaccid offensively, but there probably will be some time needed for Jim Caldwell's offense to take effect.


6.) Indianapolis Colts  (9-5  =  309-358)

Hey, a decent loss. The Colts losses so far have either been embarrassing (35-9 to the Jets, 59-24 to the Pats) or heartbreaking (80-yard TD by Cecil Shorts), until now. That was just an old-fashioned, normal loss where the Colts just weren't as good as the Texans. That said, if they go to Baltimore, they could easily win.


Two Teams Enter, One Team Leaves

5.) Cincinnati Bengals  (8-6  =  355-293)

That was a really deceiving win, as Andy Dalton and the passing offense was just awful. They still have some incredible young pieces, and could be a dominant team in two or three years, but I don't think they are quite good enough in 2012. Kudos to them, though, to not falling back after that 9-7 surprise last year and making a playoff push.


4.) Pittsburgh Steelers  (7-7  =  302-291)

That was a tough loss, but they didn't play nearly well enough. They get their chance to make that all disappear, though, if they can hold serve at Heinz and beat the Bengals and end things. The Steelers offense finally looked like it was clicking again, but the defense has become something of an issue. Their pass rush just isn't there this year, and they'll need it to come quickly down the stretch.


One of these Three Will Make It or Your Money Back

3.) Houston Texans  (12-2  =  394-280)

How good is JJ Watt? I have never seen a defensive player play this damn well in my life. I guess in the past Reggie White or LT may have had years like this, but I have never seen a defensive-lineman be that good all the time. His penetration is just amazing on nearly every play. Anyway, outside of that and another great Andre game, nothing much to see here.


2.) New England Patriots  (10-4  =  506-315)

Tough loss. The first 35 minutes was about the worst I have seen the Patriots play since that memorable (for me, at least) 2009 Wild Card disaster against Baltimore. They woke up in style, but in the end, their defense failed, their offense failed (two failed drives down 7 late), and they lost their inside-track at the bye. Tough loss for a team that was looking so good coming into the week.


1.) Denver Broncos  (11-3  =  409-274)

They got their bye back, and they got their first true big win against a good team. Lost in the Broncos 8 game win streak (now nine) was them not beating one team currently over .500 other than the Bengals, but they went into Baltimore and destroyed the Ravens in a game that wasn't even as close as the 34-17 score. Just a dominant performance, especially by the run game.


NFC


2013 Isn't too Far Away

16.) Detroit Lions  (4-10  =  330-380)

What the Hell was that? I still think this team will be better next year, but that was just embarrassing.


15.) Arizona Cardinals  (5-9  =  224-302)

Glad for them that they aren't going to end the season losing 12 straight. The Cardinals finally looked like a decent team, but their defense continues to be far better than that.


14.) Philadelphia Eagles  (4-10  =  253-375)

They played hard, but that Jets-like sequence of turnovers ended any chance they had. Nice for the D-Line to show up for the first time in months after the season is pretty much over.


13.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  (6-8  =  354-349)

Three straight losses for the once-hot-thing, but that was the worst of them. They came so close to beating the Saints in Tampa, and then they go into New Orleans and just Shit the Bed in every way. That was the Tampa I expected from Week 1.


12.) St. Louis Rams  (6-7-1  =  258-315)

That was their first truly awful performance at home (discounting their "home" loss to New England in London), but it came at the worst time. They would still be very much alive had they been able to stop Adrian Peterson.


11.) Carolina Panthers  (5-9  =  296-319)

Another top performance for a team that is quickly becoming a sleeper pick for 2013. I'm going on record now, assuming no catastrophic injuries in the next two weeks that will impact 2013, I'm picking the Panthers to make the playoffs next year.


10.) New Orleans Saints  (6-8  =  389-379)

Considering the offense of Tampa through 14 weeks, that might actually have been the most surprising shutout ever, and they made a ton of plays to make it so.


They Have a Shot, but Probably Not

9.) Minnesota Vikings  (8-6  =  319-308)

Adrian Peterson is a God among men right now. He still would have to have a spectacular finish to break Dickerson's yardage record, but 2,000 yards is close to assured by now. The Vikings are still alive, but they would hold tiebreakers over no one if teams win out. The Vikings have something to build on, but they need to fix that QB.


8.) Chicago Bears  (8-6  =  321-240)

This team was once 7-1, hosting the similarly 7-1 Texans. Since, they are 1-5, and now need some things to happen to make the playoffs. If the do miss the playoffs, I can easily see Lovie Smith losing his job, which would be a shame as his defense has been mostly brilliant all year. Also, can they teach Alshon Jeffery to not push off?


The Great Race of 2012

7.) Dallas Cowboys  (8-6  =  327-338)

The Cowboys won another comeback game, but with two tough games ahead (hosting the Saints, going to Washington) coming up, I can see the season ending a little sadly in Dallas for another season. Tony Romo has been excellent this year since his 5-pick disaster against Chicago, but if he can't lead this team to the playoffs, it may not matter.


6.) Washington Redskins  (8-6  =  381-350)

Great win in Cleveland without RGIII, and I know the fallacy of taking one game samples, but I think it is clear that the revival in Washington has a lot to do with things outside of RGIII. The run game continues to be good, and the defense has been quite good after losing two of their best players weeks and weeks ago.


5.) New York Giants  (8-6  =  373-304)

I have no idea what goes on in New York each week. The Packers are 8-1 in their last nine games, and that one loss was that 38-10 blasting by the Giants. That same Giants team lost to Washington and then laid a pathetic egg in Atlanta. Still, if they do get in, they are as dangerous as ever. Win out and they'll get at least a Wild Card.


It Just Has to Happen This Way, Right?

4.) Seattle Seahawks  (9-5  =  350-219)

Back-to-Back 50 point games? Not even the Patriots can claim that. The Seahawks offense is at such a roll right now with all of their parts. Sidney Rice has quietly had a really effective season, and Russell Wilson continues to have great games. The 49ers win makes this Sunday's game a little less meaningful, but that crowd at night should still be a good time.


3.) Green Bay Packers  (10-4  =  344-292)




Despite not winning many blowouts, and winning a bunch of close games, and struggling to score 24 some nights, the Packers have a decent shot at the #2 seed and have clinched the NFC North again. The Packers team will take solace that they still aren't fully healthy, and there is room to improve, but I feel a team that doesn't put teams away will get burnt sooner or later.


Being Home Helps

2.) Atlanta Falcons  (12-2  =  371-259)

They are so different at home against good teams. They've played Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Eli Manning, and given up 21, 13 and 0 points, picking those guys off 10 times while allowing just 1 TD. They struggle with lesser teams, but they've shown up to play big games at home this year, and that is still a scary thought given that they are a good bet for Home-Field-Advantage.


1.) San Francisco 49ers  (10-3-1  =  357-218)

I was wrong. Kaepernick is a good enough passer to make this all work. Their run game is still solid. Hopefully Justin Smith isn't hurt long-term because that defense just wasn't the same without Smith in there. Their defense fell apart in those TD drives, but when they needed to make stops after re-taking the lead, they turned the Pats over on downs twice.


Postseason Projections (adding all alive teams)

AFC

1.) Houston Texans (13-3; vs.MIN (W), @IND (L))
2.) Denver Broncos (13-3; vs.CLE (W), vs.KC (W))
3.) New England Patriots (12-4; @JAX (W), vs.MIA (W))
4.) Baltimore Ravens (10-6; vs.NYG (L), @CIN (W))
5.) Indianapolis Colts (11-5; @KC (W), vs.HOU (W))
6.) Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7; vs.CIN (W), vs.CLE (W))
*********************************************************
7.) Cincinnati Bengals (9-7; @PIT (L), vs.BAL (L))


NFC

1.) Atlanta Falcons (13-3; @DET (L), vs.TB (W))
2.) San Francisco 49ers (12-3-1; @SEA (W), vs.ARZ (W))
3.) Green Bay Packers (12-4; vs.TEN (W), @MIN (W))
4.) New York Giants (10-6; @BAL (W), vs.PHI (W))
5.) Seattle Seahawks (10-6; vs.SF (L), vs.STL (W))
6.) Chicago Bears (10-6; @ARZ (W), @DET (W))
**********************************************************
7.) Washington Redskins (9-7; @PHI (L), vs.DAL (W))
8.) Dallas Cowboys (8-8; vs.NO (L), @WAS (L))
9.) Minnesota Vikings (8-8; @HOU (L), vs.GB (L))


With the season almost over, I am retiring the 'Looking Forward to Next Week's Games' part.


Award Watch

Coach of the Year

3.) John Fox (DEN)
2.) Bruce Arians/Chuck Pagano (IND)
1.) Pete Carroll (SEA)


DROTY

3.) Levonte David (TB)
2.) Chandler Jones (NE)
1.) Janoris Jenkins (STL)


OROTY

3.) Russell Wilson (SEA)
2.) Robert Griffin III (WAS)
1.) Andrew Luck (IND)


DPOTY

3.) Aldon Smith (SF)
2.) Von Miller (DEN)
1.) JJ Watt (HOU)


OPOTY

3.) Aaron Rodgers (GB)
2.) Calvin Johnson (DET)
1.) Adrian Peterson (MIN)


MVP

5.) JJ Watt (HOU)
4.) Tom Brady (NE)
3.) Adrian Peterson (MIN)
2.) Aaron Rodgers (GB)
1.) Peyton Manning (DEN)

About Me

I am a man who will go by the moniker dmstorm22, or StormyD, but not really StormyD. I'll talk about sports, mainly football, sometimes TV, sometimes other random things, sometimes even bring out some lists (a lot, lot, lot of lists). Enjoy.