Tuesday, November 6, 2012

NFL 2012: Week 10 Power Rankings and the Rest

I'll do some midseason review stuff later. Some of my predictions have been quite wrong (Eagles, Chargers), but my pre-Season Super Bowl pick of Chicago vs. Houston is looking quite good. Anyway, let's get to the week that was first.

Looking back at Last Week's Picks

Chargers (-7.5)  over  Chiefs  (CORRECT  =  1-0)
Broncos (-4)  over  Bengals  (CORRECT  =  2-0)
Cardinals (+11)  over  Packers  (WRONG  =  2-1)
Colts (+2.5)  over  Dolphins  (CORRECT  =  3-1)  (UPSET)
Ravens (-3.5)  over  Browns  (CORRECT  =  4-1)
Texans (-10.5)  over  Bills  (CORRECT  =  5-1)
Redskins  (-3.5)  over  Panthers  (WRONG  =  5-2)
Lions (-3.5)  over  Jaguars  (CORRECT  =  6-2)  (LOCK)
Bears (-3)  over  Titans  (CORRECT  =  7-2)
Vikings (+5)  over  Seahawks  (WRONG  =  7-3)
Raiders (-1.5)  over  Buccaneers  (WRONG  =  7-4)
Giants (-3)  over  Steelers  (WRONG  =  7-5)
Falcons (-4)  over  Cowboys  (CORRECT  =  8-5) 
Eagles (+3)  over  Saints  (WRONG  =  8-6)


Week 9: 8-6  (LOCK: 1-0;  UPSET: 1-0)

Year-to-Date: 73-56-3  (LOCK: 7-2; UPSET: 8-1)

Best Picks: If not for the semi-garbage time field goal, I would have gotten the Denver winning 31-20 right (they won 31-23). I also picked the Colts to win 23-17 (they won 23-20). I picked the Packers to beat Arizona 27-17 (they won 31-17), but my pick had the Cards covering, which probably disqualifies it from this section.


Power Rankings


32.) Jacksonville Jaguars  (1-7  =  117-219)

The Good News: They get their annual night game coming up.

The Bad News: They actually have to play these games without MJD and with Blaine Gabbert.


31.) Kansas City Chiefs  (1-7  =  133-240)

The Good News: The get to play on primetime! Again!

The Bad News: They'll probably lose badly on primetime! Again!


30.) Tennessee Titans  (3-6  =  182-308)

The Good News: They have pieces on offense and are capable of scoring 20 every game.

The Bad News: They have nothing on defense and are incapable of giving up less than 20 in any game.


29.) Buffalo Bills  (3-5  =  180-248)

The Good News: Their defense actually had a decent performance against a good offense.

The Bad News: Decent means giving up 111 yards rushing on 24 carries to Arian Foster.


28.) New York Jets  (3-5  =  168-200)

The Good News: They might get Joe McKnight back.

The Bad News: That getting Joe McKnight back was the best news I could come up with.


27.) Cleveland Browns  (2-7  =  169-211)

The Good News: They are competitive every week and their young players are mostly playing well.

The Bad News: They settle for field goals way too much, and are probably going to change GMs, Coaches and possibly schemes even though the core of the team isn't that bad.


26.) Carolina Panthers  (2-6  =  149-180)

The Good News: Cam Newton is still their QB (he is NOT the problem in Carolina) and their defense shows signs of great play.

The Bad News: They are paying gobs of money to two RBs who they refuse to use.


25.) St. Louis Rams  (3-5  =  137-186)

The Good News: They don't have to play Aaron Rogers or Tom Brady anymore, and all their remaining homes games are on this continent.

The Bad News: Their defense has fallen off, their offense still doesn't have enough pieces, and they have to go to San Fran next.


24.) Cincinnati Bengals  (3-5  =  189-218)

The Good News: Andy Dalton to AJ Green/Jermaine Gresham is still something to build around for the future.

The Bad News: The future could have been in 2012, as they started 3-1, but dropping winnable games and then dropping largely unwinnable won't help their cause.


23.) Washington Redskins  (3-6  =  226-248)

The Good News: Their offense is still great on the ground, and RGIII is still very good, and Shanahan has adapted well to pair an offense with RGIII.

The Bad News: They've now fallen out of the playoff race, and Shanahan seems too in love with the offense, being a little too aggressive.


22.) Oakland Raiders  (3-5  =  171-229)

The Good News: Their passing offense continues to be quite good, and Heyward-Bey and Moore are a good tandem if they can stay healthy.

The Bad News: That defense, intentionally, is scorched-earth and just awful, and they are missing an opportunity in an open AFC Wild Card race.


21.) Philadelphia Eagles  (3-5  =  133-183)

The Good News: They might be finally rid of Andy Reid after this season.

The Bad News: Chances are the next coach will not be any better.


20.) Arizona Cardinals  (4-5  =  144-173)
 

The Good News: That defense is still very good and they contest nearly every throw, showing by the fact they held Rodgers to less than 50% completion percentage.

The Bad News: Their o-line is still a mess, and their season has officially gone to hell after a 4-0 start.


19.) New Orleans Saints  (3-5  =  218-229)

The Good News: They saved their season and found some swagger defensively that was missing throughout the year.

The Bad News: Their defense is still atrocious and their schedule is still hard.

*Because all the remaining teams have a realistic shot at the playoffs, I am going to go bad news first, because as a human, I love getting bad news first, and then good news to pick me up.*

 

18.) Minnesota Vikings  (5-4  =  204-197)

The Bad News: Christian Ponder is having too many games with incredibly small yards-per-completion numbers and sub-100 yard passing days.

The Good News: They still employ Adrian Peterson, who is a beast among men.


17.) Dallas Cowboys  (3-5  =  150-181)

The Bad News: They've dropped winnable games and still continue to not score points despite putting up a lot of yards.

The Good News: Have you seen their schedule? They have a string of winnable games, and unless one of the Lions/Vikings/Seahawks group goes on a run they can contend.


16.) Miami Dolphins  (4-4  =  170-149)

The Bad News: They lost a game to another Wild Card competitor and their schedule gets a lot tougher.

The Good News: Ryan Tannehill has been wildly impressive in his time, and has developed a rapport with a mediocre corp of receivers, so imagine him with a good group.


15.) Indianapolis Colts  (5-3  =  159-191)
 

The Bad News: The defense is still not very good and Dwight Freeney is playing so average right now that it is just sad to watch.

The Good News: I would say Andrew Luck, but the better news is that THIS GUY is their head coach (get well soon, Coach Pagano).


14.) San Diego Chargers  (4-4  =  185-157)

The Bad News: Their string of 8 straight seasons with at least 400 points is in jeopardy as they are on pace for 370, and Philip Rivers is still throwing to average players.

The Good News: Their schedule is easy, the competition for a Wild Card spot isn't the best, and Rivers can't stay this bad, can he?


13.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  (4-4  =  226-185)
 

The Bad News: Their pass defense is still historically awful, and sooner or later, they won't keep getting 6.2 yards per play like they do now.

The Good News: Their rush defense is still very good, and Greg Schiano is shoving it in my face. He's a good coach. I was wrong. But a warning for the Bucs, I wrote almost the same sentence about Josh McDaniels in Denver.


12.) Detroit Lions  (4-4  =  192-188)
 

The Bad News: Their pass rush is still very up-and-down, and Ndamukong Suh continues to underwhelm after an, admittedly, amazing rookie campaign.

The Good News: They are 4-4, and right back in the playoff race, and with Mikel Leshoure healthy, they seem to actually have a running game now.


11.) Seattle Seahawks  (5-4  =  170-154)
 

The Bad News: Their run defense was exposed.

The Good News: Their pass defense rebounded and totally dominated the Vikings, and they still get the best home field crowd in the NFL.


10.) Green Bay Packers  (6-3  =  208-170)
 

The Bad News: Aaron Rodgers continues to be slightly off, hitting just 14 of his 30 throws.

The Good News: Aaron Rodgers continues to be a TD vulture, getting 4 TDs in those 14 throws, and has an Godly 7.8 TD%.


9.) New York Giants  (6-3  =  254-185)

The Bad News: They were thoroughly dominated in their building for the 2nd time, and for the first time in a while, blew a 4th quarter lead in big fashion.

The Good News: They still have control of a weak division and their run game has looked better recently.


8.) Baltimore Ravens  (6-2  =  199-176)

The Bad News: They still don't have Lard Webb or Ray Lewis, and their offense hasn't been able to really pick up the production since.

The Good News: They continue to win, and if they can split with the Steelers could easily still sneak out that division.


7.) Pittsburgh Steelers  (5-3  =  191-164)
 

The Bad News: Mike Adams looks overmatched at guard, and Antonio Brown could be out and they are now on their 25th running back.

The Good News: Their defense, despite not getting many sacks, has been great recently and Ben Roethlisberger is quietly have a great, great season.


6.) New England Patriots  (5-3  =  262-170)

The Bad News: Their pass defense still sucks.

The Good News: They did pick up Aqib Talib, so maybe it will only suck 90% as much now.


5.) Denver Broncos  (5-3  =  235-175)
 

The Bad News: Manning is human, as he threw two picks, including an awful heave for pick #2.

The Good News: Manning still led back-to-back TD drives after that, and the schedule only gets... easier.


4.) Atlanta Falcons  (8-0  =  220-143)
 

The Bad News: Matt Bryant has been off so far this year.

The Good News: There's little pressure for 16-0 so far becuase seemingly no one thinks this is the best team in the NFL anyway, but they are really good.


3.) San Francisco 49ers  (6-2  =  189-103)
 

The Bad News: I don't really know. They might be rusty off the bye?

The Good News: Jim Harbaugh laughs at rust, and Michael Crabtree is finally not playing like a bust on a consistent basis.


2.) Houston Texans  (7-1  =  237-137)
 

The Bad News: Their offense could only muster 21 points against the Bills.

The Good News: They are good enough to still win by double-digits anyway, and they have a chance to redeem themselves on primetime after their last nigh experience against Green Bay.


1.) Chicago Bears  (7-1  =  236-120)

The Bad News: They truly can't keep scoring defensive TDs at this rate.

The Good News: Their offense is good, their defense is special, their special teams is still good, and they have a chance to grab that 'best team in the league' title with games against Houston and San Fran coming up.


Ranking the Upcoming Week's Games

14.) Kansas City Chiefs (1-7)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)  (MNF - ESPN)

One of the best by-products of the league making the TNF schedule go the whole season (and there aren't many) was that the quality of MNF games improved because the token awful prime-time games that used to be on MNF could be stashed away. Well, I guess they didn't go through with that for every week. Anyway, this game looks dreadful. Of course, because it is football, I'll watch it anyway.


13.) Tennessee Titans (3-5)  @  Miami Dolphins (4-4)  (1:00 - CBS)

Just ugh. Let's see if the Titans can actually limit a team to less than 30 for once.


12.) St. Louis Rams (3-5)  @  San Francisco 49ers (6-2)  (4:25 - FOX)
11.) Buffalo Bills (3-5)  @  New England Patriots (5-3)  (1:00 - CBS)

Two division games that have serious blowout potential, but I think one of them is at least interesting. The Bills did lead the Pats 21-7 before they forgot how to play football the last time. The Rams need to show up after two straight awful games.


10.) Oakland Raiders (3-5)  @  Baltimore Ravens (6-2)  (1:00 - CBS)
9.) New York Jets (3-5)  @  Seattle Seahawks (5-4)  (4:05 - CBS)
8.) New York Giants (6-3)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (3-5)  (1:00 - FOX)

Three intra-conference games that have some storylines but are mostly boring. The Raiders could give Baltimore a game, but I can see the Ravens coming out in force in their first home game since their stars went down. The Jets get a trip to Seattle, where I'm sure Rex Ryan will wish he had the Seahawks defense, and the Giants look to rebound.


7.) Detroit Lions (4-4)  @  Minnesota Vikings (5-4)  (1:00 - FOX)
6.) Indianapolis Colts (5-3)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7)  (TNF - NFLN) 

5.) Atlanta Falcons (8-0)  @  New Orleans Saints (3-5)  (1:00 - FOX)
 

Three division games all have implications. The Lions and Vikings are fighting for leading position for that 6th seed, and the Lions are looking to at least split the season series. The Colts always play close games in Jacksonville, and have had some memorable night games there late in the Manning era. The Falcons have another test on their quest to perfection against a team playing for its life.


4.) San Diego Chargers (4-4)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4)  (1:00 - CBS)
3.) Denver Broncos (5-3)  @  Carolina Panthers (2-6)  (1:00 - CBS)

Two intra-conference games are fun for different reasons. Chargers vs. Buccaneers is a game that could really decide which of the two contend in their respective conferences, and gives the Chargers another chance to show some mettle on the road. The Broncos get to visit a renewed Carolina team, Manning's chance to stick it to Jerry Richardson, who apparently belittled him last year during the lockout.


2.) Dallas Cowboys (3-5)  @  Philadelphia Eagles (3-5)  (4:25 - FOX)

The #6 seed race in the NFC has become swamped in mediocrity much like the AFC state (of course, the teams vying for the NFC spot just 'feel' better, don't they?). This is kind of an elimination game here. The Eagles have had a lot of success recently against the Cowboys after going 0-3 in 2009. Vick, in fact, has yet to lose to the Cowboys. Should be a good game.


1.) Houston Texans (7-1)  @  Chicago Bears (7-1)  (SNF - NBC)

My Super Bowl pick before the year might actually be a Super Bowl preview in this matchup. Anyway, this should be an awesome game. I can already see Jay Cutler running for his life, and I can also see the Texans offense struggling. Soldier Field should be in great form at night as well. Can't Wait for this one. (BTW, the Bears have another playoff position game next week in a trip to San Francisco next Monday Night)


Postseason Projections (More details in Midseason Review)

AFC

1.) Houston Texans (13-3)
2.) Denver Broncos (12-4)
3.) Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
4.) New England Patriots (11-5)
5.) Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
6.) Indianapolis Colts (9-7)


NFC

1.) Atlanta Falcons (14-2)
2.) Chicago Bears (13-3)
3.) San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
4.) New York Giants (11-5)
5.) Green Bay Packers (11-5)
6.) Seattle Seahawks (9-7)

About Me

I am a man who will go by the moniker dmstorm22, or StormyD, but not really StormyD. I'll talk about sports, mainly football, sometimes TV, sometimes other random things, sometimes even bring out some lists (a lot, lot, lot of lists). Enjoy.