Indianapolis Colts (5-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7) (IND -3)
This line is about right, even though one team is a full four games better than the other. The Jaguars one the previous matchup on a shocking 80-yard TD by Cecil Shorts to pull out a 22-17 win. The Colts are worse than a 5-3 team, being outscored by 32 points, but they still are better than the Jaguars, who are playing without MJD again (who has terrorized the Colts throughout his career). Road teams usually have a tough time on TNF games, but that goes away when the road team is clearly better (Giants winning 36-7 in Carolina, or what will probably happen Thanksgiving Night in New York, or what happens nearly every Thanksgiving in Detroit). I don't know if the Colts are clearly better, but they are better, and three points is a good value line. Also, if the Colts can get to 6-3, they have a really, really good shot at the playoffs. Huge game for them. They wouldn't want to go to New England coming off a second loss to the Jagaurs.
Colts 24 Jaguars 17 (IND -3)
Buffalo Bills (3-5) @ New England Patriots (5-3) (NE -11)
The Patriots, ever since their 'Spygate Revenge' mode wore off sometime around Super Bowl 41.5 in 2007, have been quite bad at covering these huge lines. They've already lost outright once this year with a huge line (to Arizona), but they they covered two weeks ago in London with a similar line. The Bills, let's remember, were up 21-7 on New England before they fell apart with picks and an inability to play the run. They haven't really solved the run issues (though the D-Line is playing better), and I can see the Patriots having another 200+ yard day on the ground. The Patriots secondary is still mostly awful, so I can see the Bills having some success. I hate doing this because I can easily see this game deteriorating into another Patriots romp, but I can't trust Brady and Co. to cover these huge lines when they usually don't, so I guess I'll take the Bills. If I were a betting man, I would stay away.
Bills 24 Patriots 34 (BUF +11)
New York Giants (6-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals (3-5) (NYG -4)
The Giants better win this game. Heading into the bye, with the hot Packers on the other end, on a two game losing streak will not make Mr. Coughlin too happy. They'll all hear two weeks of "Here We Go Again." Personally, I think they just were flat outplayed by a rejuvenated Pittsburgh group last weekend. The Bengals, on the other hand, are in a tough spot. They emotionally came to play against Denver, and after losing, this could be a let down. Their Wild-Card chances are about shot at this point, and their season in many ways ended last week. The Bengals still have problems covering receivers and their o-line isn't very good, which is about as bad a matchup for the Giants as possible. The Giants are great on the road (if Larry Tynes hits a field goal in Philadelphia, they are undefeated on the road right now), and I like the value with the line here.
Giants 27 Bengals 20 (NYG -4)
San Diego Chargers (4-4) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4) (TB -3)
Interesting game here. The last time these two teams met (I'm doing this 'last time these two met' for intra-conference games a lot because all of them happened in 2008, which was probably my favorite regular season of football so ever) the Chargers were rising from the ashes of 4-8 to the playoffs while the Bucs were in a freefall from 9-3 to 9-7 that cost Jon Gruden his job. Right now, the Chargers are in their own freefall after ruining a good start for the second straight season. Philip Rivers and the team finally played well last Thursday, but that was against the Chiefs. They do have more time to prepare for a team that still can't stop the pass. If Rivers can't play well here, just give up on him. The Chargers have a decent run game, so I wouldn't expect Doug Martin to have that type of game. I do like the Chargers in this spot (they aren't that bad going East for 1PM games as a lot of other West Coast teams), but that might just be me underestimating the Bucs. This is a big game for both, but I actually think the Chargers are more out of it with a loss than the Bucs. I'll go with my gut and take the Chargers.
Chargers 31 Buccaneers 23 (SD +3)
Denver Broncos (5-3) @ Carolina Panthers (2-6) (DEN -4)
The Panthers seemed to have woken up the last two weeks, as Charles Johnson and rookie Luke Kuechly have helped up teh play of that defense. That said, I don't think their defense is close to good enough here. A lot of people were unimpressed with the Broncos last week, but they were playing Cincy off of their bye and still won comfortably. They are a lot better than the Panthers, have the defense to give them fits (they track down runners better than any team I've seen). The Panthers don't for Peyton. Hidden reason: Both Peyton and his Coach have a reason to stick it to Panthers' owner Jerry Richardson, one because Richardson belittled him during the lockout, the other because Richardson fired him. That's enough for me to take the Broncos to cover a low line.
Broncos 34 Panthers 17 (DEN -4)
Tennessee Titans (3-5) @ Miami Dolphins (4-4) (MIA -5.5)
I have no read on this game. The Titans are the worst 3-5 team in the NFL (they've been outscored by 126 points), while the Dolphins are one of the better 4-4 teams, but the Dolphins may have a letdown after losing that close, important game last week to Indianapolis. The Dolphins rush defense has been very good (DVOA ranks them #3) and they should limit Chris Johnson. Then again, the Dolphins really might have a let down after losing that game. I can't escape that fact, and that this line, to me, is a little high.
Titans 20 Dolphins 24 (TEN +5.5)
Oakland Raiders (3-5) @ Baltimore Ravens (6-2) (BAL -8)
The Raiders have been blown out twice this season, but both were before the bye. Since then, their losses have been close to the Falcons (20-23) and Buccaneers (32-42). The Ravens haven't blown anyone out in a while (say, Week 1 - 44-13 over Cincinnati). The Raiders passing offense should have plays to make against a Ravens team that still can't really rush the passer (Palmer is good at avoiding sacks anway). The key is the other side. Can the Ravens offense do to Oakland what the Bucs did. They definitely have the running back (will Cam Cameron use him is the real question) and the weapons, but Flacco has been spotty. This is really tough because that line is valued about right. The Raiders are better than people think, but in a way, so are the Ravens. They didn't play that well and just won by 10 over a mediocre team. Can't they do the same? I really have no idea (By the way, I can foresee a 5-9 type week coming).
Raiders 20 Ravens 30 (BAL -8)
Atlanta Falcons (8-0) @ New Orleans Saints (3-5) (ATL -2.5)
I'm hearing a lot of love for the Saints here. They've definitely played the Falcons well recently (won the last three), but those were different Saints and this is a different Falcons team. They haven't looked particularly good all the time, but they've never seemed like the team that played worse in any of their games. For instance, the Raiders game was only close because of three strange Matt Ryan picks, and they never seemed like they would actually lose to Dallas. The Falcons have been mostly great on the road which is strange, and the Saints have been beatable in every home game (the Eagles just gave that game away). I'll buck convention and go with the team that should shred the Saints secondary with White and Jones, and might actually get their run game going. The fact that the line is below a Field Goal is what clinches it for me, though.
Falcons 34 Saints 27 (ATL -2.5)
Detroit Lions (4-4) @ Minnesota Vikings (5-4) (DET -2)
The Lions need this game badly. If they get it, they are, somehow, in the driver's seat for the last Wild Card spot (head-to-head win over Seattle, the only other four loss team in the race) and will avoid a season sweep from the Vikings. The Lions should have won the first meeting in Detroit but were undone by two Special Teams TDs. I can't imagine that happening. Christian Ponder and that passing offense has been awful of late, and the Lions pass defense probably won't be exposed too much. Their rush defense has been good enough. The two points is good value, and it isn't like the Vikings have been that good at home recently.
Lions 26 Vikings 20 (DET -2)
New York Jets (3-5) @ Seattle Seahawks (5-4) (SEA -6)
I have an illness. That illness is sticking with this Jets team. Why do I like them here to cover? I have no reasoning. Their defense is good, but has been up-and-down on the road. The Seahawks defense should be able to eliminate any hopes of the Jets having a good day passing the ball. This is the toughest place to play when the Seahawks are good, and they are good. This is a bigger game for the Seahawks, who can't afford to drop back to the pack, while the Jets are all but eliminated at this point. You know what, I'm not going to listen to this lunatic in my brain telling me the Jets are decent, and more importantly, I went through this last week, picking the Vikings to cover in Seattle. Peterson had an amazing day, and they still couldn't do it. Fool me once, shame on you (Vikings), fool me twice, shame on me.
Jets 13 Seahawks 23 (SEA -6)
St. Louis Rams (3-5) @ San Francisco 49ers (6-2) (SF -11)
Unlike the Patriots, the 49ers have done a pretty good job of covering really high lines. Both teams are off byes so there's no advantage gained for the Rams. The 49ers have dominated their division opponents so far, and the Rams have played terribly in their last two games. The 49ers are good enough to eliminate the Rams offense from competing too much. You know what? I don't want to dwell on this too long. I'll take the better team that is a lot better at home.
Rams 10 49ers 27 (SF -11)
Dallas Cowboys (3-5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (3-5) (DAL -1.5)
OK, I'm done picking all favorites. I realize the Eagles looked awful on Monday Night, but this is a huge overreaction. The Cowboys are not this much better than the Eagles. Apart from 2009, when the Cowboys had a better team, the Cowboys haven't won a game in Philly since 2007, and have been blown out twice since then, losing 44-6 in 2008 and 31-7 last year. I don't think it will be as bad, but Romo historically struggles with the Eagles, while Vick doesn't with Dallas (3-0 as a starter against the Cowboys). They have the same record. They both don't deserve to be any better. The Eagles match up well with Dallas, who doesn't have the team speed on defense to stay with the Eagles weapons in my opinion. The Eagles have the corners to play with the Cowboys. I'll take the Eagles, especially underdogs.
Cowboys 17 Eagles 27 (PHI +1.5)
Houston Texans (7-1) @ Chicago Bears (7-1) (CHI -1)
I just hope this game is as good as I want it to be. I want this to be a close, hard-fought, physical game. I want this to end like 20-17 or 17-16, some low-scoring game defined by excellent defense. Anyway, the matchups favor Houston in my mind. They can run the ball (which is a relative weakness for the Bears' defense). Their d-line could dominate the Bears blockers much more than the Bears doing the same to Houston's o-line. The Bears do have some advantages, like their league-best special teams against one of the league's worst. Their also at home where they tend to play better. This is a bigger game for the Bears, who with a loss would than have a massive game a week from now against, in all likelihood, a similarly 7-2 49ers team in Candlestick. They could go from safe #2 seed to team without a bye quickly. Conversely, the Texans with a loss still have the #1 seed tiebreaker with a slightly flimsy Baltimore team. It means more for the Bears, and I think they sneak it out. I just hope it is a close, tough, physical, good game.
Texans 17 Bears 20 (CHI -1)
Kansas City Chiefs (1-7) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) (PIT -12)
The Chiefs without Stanford Routt against a rejuvanated Steelers offense and defense, who gets to beat up on whoever is taking snaps for the Chiefs? This looks too easy, and the line is really high. I probably won't watch this game (though in the end I probably will). The good news, for once, is Jon Gruden can't slobber over BOTH QBs this time.
Chiefs 10 Steelers 30 (PIT -12)
Enjoy the Games!!
This line is about right, even though one team is a full four games better than the other. The Jaguars one the previous matchup on a shocking 80-yard TD by Cecil Shorts to pull out a 22-17 win. The Colts are worse than a 5-3 team, being outscored by 32 points, but they still are better than the Jaguars, who are playing without MJD again (who has terrorized the Colts throughout his career). Road teams usually have a tough time on TNF games, but that goes away when the road team is clearly better (Giants winning 36-7 in Carolina, or what will probably happen Thanksgiving Night in New York, or what happens nearly every Thanksgiving in Detroit). I don't know if the Colts are clearly better, but they are better, and three points is a good value line. Also, if the Colts can get to 6-3, they have a really, really good shot at the playoffs. Huge game for them. They wouldn't want to go to New England coming off a second loss to the Jagaurs.
Colts 24 Jaguars 17 (IND -3)
Buffalo Bills (3-5) @ New England Patriots (5-3) (NE -11)
The Patriots, ever since their 'Spygate Revenge' mode wore off sometime around Super Bowl 41.5 in 2007, have been quite bad at covering these huge lines. They've already lost outright once this year with a huge line (to Arizona), but they they covered two weeks ago in London with a similar line. The Bills, let's remember, were up 21-7 on New England before they fell apart with picks and an inability to play the run. They haven't really solved the run issues (though the D-Line is playing better), and I can see the Patriots having another 200+ yard day on the ground. The Patriots secondary is still mostly awful, so I can see the Bills having some success. I hate doing this because I can easily see this game deteriorating into another Patriots romp, but I can't trust Brady and Co. to cover these huge lines when they usually don't, so I guess I'll take the Bills. If I were a betting man, I would stay away.
Bills 24 Patriots 34 (BUF +11)
New York Giants (6-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals (3-5) (NYG -4)
The Giants better win this game. Heading into the bye, with the hot Packers on the other end, on a two game losing streak will not make Mr. Coughlin too happy. They'll all hear two weeks of "Here We Go Again." Personally, I think they just were flat outplayed by a rejuvenated Pittsburgh group last weekend. The Bengals, on the other hand, are in a tough spot. They emotionally came to play against Denver, and after losing, this could be a let down. Their Wild-Card chances are about shot at this point, and their season in many ways ended last week. The Bengals still have problems covering receivers and their o-line isn't very good, which is about as bad a matchup for the Giants as possible. The Giants are great on the road (if Larry Tynes hits a field goal in Philadelphia, they are undefeated on the road right now), and I like the value with the line here.
Giants 27 Bengals 20 (NYG -4)
San Diego Chargers (4-4) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4) (TB -3)
Interesting game here. The last time these two teams met (I'm doing this 'last time these two met' for intra-conference games a lot because all of them happened in 2008, which was probably my favorite regular season of football so ever) the Chargers were rising from the ashes of 4-8 to the playoffs while the Bucs were in a freefall from 9-3 to 9-7 that cost Jon Gruden his job. Right now, the Chargers are in their own freefall after ruining a good start for the second straight season. Philip Rivers and the team finally played well last Thursday, but that was against the Chiefs. They do have more time to prepare for a team that still can't stop the pass. If Rivers can't play well here, just give up on him. The Chargers have a decent run game, so I wouldn't expect Doug Martin to have that type of game. I do like the Chargers in this spot (they aren't that bad going East for 1PM games as a lot of other West Coast teams), but that might just be me underestimating the Bucs. This is a big game for both, but I actually think the Chargers are more out of it with a loss than the Bucs. I'll go with my gut and take the Chargers.
Chargers 31 Buccaneers 23 (SD +3)
Denver Broncos (5-3) @ Carolina Panthers (2-6) (DEN -4)
The Panthers seemed to have woken up the last two weeks, as Charles Johnson and rookie Luke Kuechly have helped up teh play of that defense. That said, I don't think their defense is close to good enough here. A lot of people were unimpressed with the Broncos last week, but they were playing Cincy off of their bye and still won comfortably. They are a lot better than the Panthers, have the defense to give them fits (they track down runners better than any team I've seen). The Panthers don't for Peyton. Hidden reason: Both Peyton and his Coach have a reason to stick it to Panthers' owner Jerry Richardson, one because Richardson belittled him during the lockout, the other because Richardson fired him. That's enough for me to take the Broncos to cover a low line.
Broncos 34 Panthers 17 (DEN -4)
Tennessee Titans (3-5) @ Miami Dolphins (4-4) (MIA -5.5)
I have no read on this game. The Titans are the worst 3-5 team in the NFL (they've been outscored by 126 points), while the Dolphins are one of the better 4-4 teams, but the Dolphins may have a letdown after losing that close, important game last week to Indianapolis. The Dolphins rush defense has been very good (DVOA ranks them #3) and they should limit Chris Johnson. Then again, the Dolphins really might have a let down after losing that game. I can't escape that fact, and that this line, to me, is a little high.
Titans 20 Dolphins 24 (TEN +5.5)
Oakland Raiders (3-5) @ Baltimore Ravens (6-2) (BAL -8)
The Raiders have been blown out twice this season, but both were before the bye. Since then, their losses have been close to the Falcons (20-23) and Buccaneers (32-42). The Ravens haven't blown anyone out in a while (say, Week 1 - 44-13 over Cincinnati). The Raiders passing offense should have plays to make against a Ravens team that still can't really rush the passer (Palmer is good at avoiding sacks anway). The key is the other side. Can the Ravens offense do to Oakland what the Bucs did. They definitely have the running back (will Cam Cameron use him is the real question) and the weapons, but Flacco has been spotty. This is really tough because that line is valued about right. The Raiders are better than people think, but in a way, so are the Ravens. They didn't play that well and just won by 10 over a mediocre team. Can't they do the same? I really have no idea (By the way, I can foresee a 5-9 type week coming).
Raiders 20 Ravens 30 (BAL -8)
Atlanta Falcons (8-0) @ New Orleans Saints (3-5) (ATL -2.5)
I'm hearing a lot of love for the Saints here. They've definitely played the Falcons well recently (won the last three), but those were different Saints and this is a different Falcons team. They haven't looked particularly good all the time, but they've never seemed like the team that played worse in any of their games. For instance, the Raiders game was only close because of three strange Matt Ryan picks, and they never seemed like they would actually lose to Dallas. The Falcons have been mostly great on the road which is strange, and the Saints have been beatable in every home game (the Eagles just gave that game away). I'll buck convention and go with the team that should shred the Saints secondary with White and Jones, and might actually get their run game going. The fact that the line is below a Field Goal is what clinches it for me, though.
Falcons 34 Saints 27 (ATL -2.5)
Detroit Lions (4-4) @ Minnesota Vikings (5-4) (DET -2)
The Lions need this game badly. If they get it, they are, somehow, in the driver's seat for the last Wild Card spot (head-to-head win over Seattle, the only other four loss team in the race) and will avoid a season sweep from the Vikings. The Lions should have won the first meeting in Detroit but were undone by two Special Teams TDs. I can't imagine that happening. Christian Ponder and that passing offense has been awful of late, and the Lions pass defense probably won't be exposed too much. Their rush defense has been good enough. The two points is good value, and it isn't like the Vikings have been that good at home recently.
Lions 26 Vikings 20 (DET -2)
New York Jets (3-5) @ Seattle Seahawks (5-4) (SEA -6)
I have an illness. That illness is sticking with this Jets team. Why do I like them here to cover? I have no reasoning. Their defense is good, but has been up-and-down on the road. The Seahawks defense should be able to eliminate any hopes of the Jets having a good day passing the ball. This is the toughest place to play when the Seahawks are good, and they are good. This is a bigger game for the Seahawks, who can't afford to drop back to the pack, while the Jets are all but eliminated at this point. You know what, I'm not going to listen to this lunatic in my brain telling me the Jets are decent, and more importantly, I went through this last week, picking the Vikings to cover in Seattle. Peterson had an amazing day, and they still couldn't do it. Fool me once, shame on you (Vikings), fool me twice, shame on me.
Jets 13 Seahawks 23 (SEA -6)
St. Louis Rams (3-5) @ San Francisco 49ers (6-2) (SF -11)
Unlike the Patriots, the 49ers have done a pretty good job of covering really high lines. Both teams are off byes so there's no advantage gained for the Rams. The 49ers have dominated their division opponents so far, and the Rams have played terribly in their last two games. The 49ers are good enough to eliminate the Rams offense from competing too much. You know what? I don't want to dwell on this too long. I'll take the better team that is a lot better at home.
Rams 10 49ers 27 (SF -11)
Dallas Cowboys (3-5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (3-5) (DAL -1.5)
OK, I'm done picking all favorites. I realize the Eagles looked awful on Monday Night, but this is a huge overreaction. The Cowboys are not this much better than the Eagles. Apart from 2009, when the Cowboys had a better team, the Cowboys haven't won a game in Philly since 2007, and have been blown out twice since then, losing 44-6 in 2008 and 31-7 last year. I don't think it will be as bad, but Romo historically struggles with the Eagles, while Vick doesn't with Dallas (3-0 as a starter against the Cowboys). They have the same record. They both don't deserve to be any better. The Eagles match up well with Dallas, who doesn't have the team speed on defense to stay with the Eagles weapons in my opinion. The Eagles have the corners to play with the Cowboys. I'll take the Eagles, especially underdogs.
Cowboys 17 Eagles 27 (PHI +1.5)
Houston Texans (7-1) @ Chicago Bears (7-1) (CHI -1)
I just hope this game is as good as I want it to be. I want this to be a close, hard-fought, physical game. I want this to end like 20-17 or 17-16, some low-scoring game defined by excellent defense. Anyway, the matchups favor Houston in my mind. They can run the ball (which is a relative weakness for the Bears' defense). Their d-line could dominate the Bears blockers much more than the Bears doing the same to Houston's o-line. The Bears do have some advantages, like their league-best special teams against one of the league's worst. Their also at home where they tend to play better. This is a bigger game for the Bears, who with a loss would than have a massive game a week from now against, in all likelihood, a similarly 7-2 49ers team in Candlestick. They could go from safe #2 seed to team without a bye quickly. Conversely, the Texans with a loss still have the #1 seed tiebreaker with a slightly flimsy Baltimore team. It means more for the Bears, and I think they sneak it out. I just hope it is a close, tough, physical, good game.
Texans 17 Bears 20 (CHI -1)
Kansas City Chiefs (1-7) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) (PIT -12)
The Chiefs without Stanford Routt against a rejuvanated Steelers offense and defense, who gets to beat up on whoever is taking snaps for the Chiefs? This looks too easy, and the line is really high. I probably won't watch this game (though in the end I probably will). The good news, for once, is Jon Gruden can't slobber over BOTH QBs this time.
Chiefs 10 Steelers 30 (PIT -12)
Enjoy the Games!!
