Just the TNF game for now in three sentences.
New York Giants (1-1) @ Carolina Panthers (1-1) (CAR -2.5)
Nicks and Bradshaw are both out, and road teams rarely win the TNF game when the home team is anywhere near decent. Plus, getting just 2.5 is good value. It's almost close to picking straight up here.
Giants 20 Panthers 30 (CAR -2.5)
The rest to come
And now the rest have come...
St. Louis Rams (1-1) @ Chicago Bears (1-1) (Bears -7)
In a way, I'm surprised this line is lot lower, as I've heard many people refer to this as a trendy upset pick. I think people are overrating the Rams close home win against the Redskins and overrating the Bears loss on the road on a Thursday to their biggest rival. The Bears are just a much better team, and I expect them to hold down the Rams pretty easily. Their defense is playing at a really high level. On the other side, the Rams have a good pass rush, but not enough to really stop the Bears.
Rams 13 Bears 23 (CHI -7)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (1-1) (Cowboys -8)
I don't think the Buccaneers are a very good team. I don't think Greg Schiano is a very good coach. Still, I think this is good value for a Buccaneers team that hasn't turned on their ridiculous coach (it will happen when they start 3-7). They can give the Cowboys a good game for now. The Buccaneers are healthy, have the size at receiver to bother the Cowboys secondary, and, again, are right now not a touchdown worse than the Cowboys.
Buccaneers 20 Cowboys 24 (TB +8)
San Francisco 49ers (2-0) @ Minnesota Vikings (1-1) (49ers -6.5)
I feel like this is stealing in a way. The 49ers beat two better, and in the case of the Packers substantially, teams from the NFC North by eight. Yet, they are only a touchdown favorite against a Vikings team that needed OT to beat the Jaguars and had to come back from 20-6 down to the Colts. That doesn't make much sense. The 49ers will swallow up Peterson, and they will not really let Harvin really get going. I just don't see this as a good matchup at all for the Vikings.
49ers 30 Vikings 13 (SF -6.5)
Detroit Lions (1-1) @ Tennessee Titans (0-2) (Lions -3.5)
This is another odd spread. The Titans, through two games, have the worst scoring differential in the NFL. Other than a pass rush against San Diego, have not shown any ability to stop anyone on defense, and have Chris Johnson running for barely a yard a carry. Yet, this line is only 3.5. I probably shouldn't be thinking this way so much, since Vegas generally knows what they are doing, but I think the Lions are good enough to win this game. Calvin Johnson should also dominate the lesser talents in the Titans secondary.
Lions 27 Titans 17 (DET -3.5) (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
Cincinnati Bengals (1-1) @ Washington Redskins (1-1) (Redskins -3)
The Redskins looked human in Week 2, and worse, they were human, falling to one of the worst injury days I have seen, losing their best young talents Adam Carriker and Brian Orakpo for the year. They might overcome this later, but I really don't see how they will get around it in this game. This is RGIII's home opener, but I'm not sure that means much. It is scary how bad the Bengals defense has been so far, but I think they turn it around here.
Bengals 27 Redskins 24 (CIN +3) (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
New York Jets (1-1) @ Miami Dolphins (1-1) (Jets -2.5)
Jets 21 Dolphins 14 (NYJ -2.5)
Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) @ New Orleans Saints (0-2) (Saints -8.5)
I have no confidence in this pick. I can see Tamba Hali just dominating Jermon Bushrod. I can see the Chiefs going point-for-point the way the Redskins did in Week 1, but I really can't see the Saints dropping to 0-3, and more importantly 0-2 at home. I don't but the Chiefs offense in this type of game. Cassel is awful against good pass rushes, so he probably will have a decent game, and that offense will keep it close, but not close enough.
Chiefs 24 Saints 31 (KC +8.5)
Buffalo Bills (1-1) @ Cleveland (0-2) (Bills -3)
I have no read in this game. I know the Bills are better, but their biggest strength on defense is their pass rush. Unfortunately, the Browns have a good offensive line. The last time these two teams met, the Bills won 13-6. The time before that, in 2009, the Browns won 6-3, and Derek Anderson went 2-17 in a winning effort. So, I think this game will be slightly better, but still involve a '3' and a '6'. I have nothing more to really say about this decrepit game.
Bills 23 Browns 16 (BUF -3)
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) @ Indianapolis Colts (1-1) (Colts -3)
This is good value for the Colts. Luck played well at home, and the Jaguars offense is so bad that they might actually make the Colts defense look good. If the Colts ever had a chance to hold a team to under 20 points this is it. The Colts probably won't get much in the running game, and might not score too many points, but I think the Jaguars are just nowhere right now.
Jaguars 17 Colts 24 (IND -3)
Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) @ Arizona Cardinals (2-0) (Eagles -3.5)
By far the most surprising big game in the NFL so far, the Eagles and Cardinals meet in Glendale for the first time since the 2008 NFC Championship. The teams are a little different now, but the game should still be close. The Eagles just cannot turn the ball over as much as they have the last two weeks, as the Cardinals defense is too good to allow the Eagles to put up 450 yards. On the other side, I can see the Cardinals trying to force DRC to cover Fitz, and do what they always do and somehow score enough points.
Eagles 17 Cardinals 20 (ARZ +3.5)
Atlanta Falcons (2-0) @ San Diego Chargers (2-0) (Chargers -3)
Hey, it is upset city in the 4:00 hour. The other game featuring two 2-0 teams is also surprising, moreso with the Chargers. Through the Chargers two games their rush defense has been incredible, which makes it pretty certain that Michael Turner won't have a big game. As for the other side, I can see the Falcons secondary posing just enough challenges to Rivers that they hold the Chargers in the 20s. The key is if Matt Ryan can get time and get his receivers open. I say he does, against a Chargers pass rush that is a little inconsistent right now.
Falcons 30 Chargers 24 (ATL +3)
Houston Texans (2-0) @ Denver Broncos (1-1) (Texans -2)
Man, after overrating the Broncos after their Week 1 win, people are now underrating them after a Week 2 loss. I think the Broncos at home under Manning is a pretty good bet, especially with that wicked no-huddle in the thin Denver air. By the second half, the Steelers were totally gassed on defense. Manning knows the Texans, and the Broncos rush defense has been really good so far. If they play close to that defensively against the Texans run game, they should be able to pull this one out.
Texans 24 Broncos 27 (DEN +3)
Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) @ Oakland Raiders (0-2) (Steelers -4)
This is an awful position for the Raiders, playing a good defense and a good passing offense without both of their opening day corners playing. I heavily doubt Darren McFadden gets it going in this game (he will soon, though). I can see the Steelers defense harassing Palmer. I think it will be closer than many, but that line seems way too low. The Steelers are a better team than a wounded Oakland group.
Steelers 27 Raiders 17 (PIT -4)
New England Patriots (1-1) @ Baltimore Ravens (1-1) (Ravens -2.5)
Oh man will this game be fun (a lot more fun if the Colts and Broncos do win earlier in the day). Both teams have so much to play for, the most of all is avoiding a 1-2 start. The Pats need to show the world that they can get by without Aaron Hernandez, as try to get past this Welker mess. I wouldn't be shocked if he has a massive game (or at least gets targeted a lot). The Ravens want revenge for the AFC Title Game, and to answer the questions that their defense is just merely good after a fluke loss last week. The Ravens have made Tom Brady mortal when he's had all his weapons in 2010 and last year's game, and I think they do it just enough here as well.
Patriots 20 Ravens 27 (BAL -2.5)
Green Bay Packers (1-1) @ Seattle Seahawks (1-1) (Packers -3)
The Seahawks are a good team, but I don't think they are at this level yet. That stadium should be loud and pumping on MNF, but the Packers should be ready with 10 days to prepare. Rodgers gets Jennings back, and although the Seahawks have a secondary that can compete, I don't know if that is really enough in this case. I don't think the Seahawks offense can score enough points to really keep up.
Packers 27 Seahawks 20 (GB -3)
Enjoy the Games!!
New York Giants (1-1) @ Carolina Panthers (1-1) (CAR -2.5)
Nicks and Bradshaw are both out, and road teams rarely win the TNF game when the home team is anywhere near decent. Plus, getting just 2.5 is good value. It's almost close to picking straight up here.
Giants 20 Panthers 30 (CAR -2.5)
The rest to come
And now the rest have come...
St. Louis Rams (1-1) @ Chicago Bears (1-1) (Bears -7)
In a way, I'm surprised this line is lot lower, as I've heard many people refer to this as a trendy upset pick. I think people are overrating the Rams close home win against the Redskins and overrating the Bears loss on the road on a Thursday to their biggest rival. The Bears are just a much better team, and I expect them to hold down the Rams pretty easily. Their defense is playing at a really high level. On the other side, the Rams have a good pass rush, but not enough to really stop the Bears.
Rams 13 Bears 23 (CHI -7)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (1-1) (Cowboys -8)
I don't think the Buccaneers are a very good team. I don't think Greg Schiano is a very good coach. Still, I think this is good value for a Buccaneers team that hasn't turned on their ridiculous coach (it will happen when they start 3-7). They can give the Cowboys a good game for now. The Buccaneers are healthy, have the size at receiver to bother the Cowboys secondary, and, again, are right now not a touchdown worse than the Cowboys.
Buccaneers 20 Cowboys 24 (TB +8)
San Francisco 49ers (2-0) @ Minnesota Vikings (1-1) (49ers -6.5)
I feel like this is stealing in a way. The 49ers beat two better, and in the case of the Packers substantially, teams from the NFC North by eight. Yet, they are only a touchdown favorite against a Vikings team that needed OT to beat the Jaguars and had to come back from 20-6 down to the Colts. That doesn't make much sense. The 49ers will swallow up Peterson, and they will not really let Harvin really get going. I just don't see this as a good matchup at all for the Vikings.
49ers 30 Vikings 13 (SF -6.5)
Detroit Lions (1-1) @ Tennessee Titans (0-2) (Lions -3.5)
This is another odd spread. The Titans, through two games, have the worst scoring differential in the NFL. Other than a pass rush against San Diego, have not shown any ability to stop anyone on defense, and have Chris Johnson running for barely a yard a carry. Yet, this line is only 3.5. I probably shouldn't be thinking this way so much, since Vegas generally knows what they are doing, but I think the Lions are good enough to win this game. Calvin Johnson should also dominate the lesser talents in the Titans secondary.
Lions 27 Titans 17 (DET -3.5) (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
Cincinnati Bengals (1-1) @ Washington Redskins (1-1) (Redskins -3)
The Redskins looked human in Week 2, and worse, they were human, falling to one of the worst injury days I have seen, losing their best young talents Adam Carriker and Brian Orakpo for the year. They might overcome this later, but I really don't see how they will get around it in this game. This is RGIII's home opener, but I'm not sure that means much. It is scary how bad the Bengals defense has been so far, but I think they turn it around here.
Bengals 27 Redskins 24 (CIN +3) (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
New York Jets (1-1) @ Miami Dolphins (1-1) (Jets -2.5)
Jets 21 Dolphins 14 (NYJ -2.5)
Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) @ New Orleans Saints (0-2) (Saints -8.5)
I have no confidence in this pick. I can see Tamba Hali just dominating Jermon Bushrod. I can see the Chiefs going point-for-point the way the Redskins did in Week 1, but I really can't see the Saints dropping to 0-3, and more importantly 0-2 at home. I don't but the Chiefs offense in this type of game. Cassel is awful against good pass rushes, so he probably will have a decent game, and that offense will keep it close, but not close enough.
Chiefs 24 Saints 31 (KC +8.5)
Buffalo Bills (1-1) @ Cleveland (0-2) (Bills -3)
I have no read in this game. I know the Bills are better, but their biggest strength on defense is their pass rush. Unfortunately, the Browns have a good offensive line. The last time these two teams met, the Bills won 13-6. The time before that, in 2009, the Browns won 6-3, and Derek Anderson went 2-17 in a winning effort. So, I think this game will be slightly better, but still involve a '3' and a '6'. I have nothing more to really say about this decrepit game.
Bills 23 Browns 16 (BUF -3)
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) @ Indianapolis Colts (1-1) (Colts -3)
This is good value for the Colts. Luck played well at home, and the Jaguars offense is so bad that they might actually make the Colts defense look good. If the Colts ever had a chance to hold a team to under 20 points this is it. The Colts probably won't get much in the running game, and might not score too many points, but I think the Jaguars are just nowhere right now.
Jaguars 17 Colts 24 (IND -3)
Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) @ Arizona Cardinals (2-0) (Eagles -3.5)
By far the most surprising big game in the NFL so far, the Eagles and Cardinals meet in Glendale for the first time since the 2008 NFC Championship. The teams are a little different now, but the game should still be close. The Eagles just cannot turn the ball over as much as they have the last two weeks, as the Cardinals defense is too good to allow the Eagles to put up 450 yards. On the other side, I can see the Cardinals trying to force DRC to cover Fitz, and do what they always do and somehow score enough points.
Eagles 17 Cardinals 20 (ARZ +3.5)
Atlanta Falcons (2-0) @ San Diego Chargers (2-0) (Chargers -3)
Hey, it is upset city in the 4:00 hour. The other game featuring two 2-0 teams is also surprising, moreso with the Chargers. Through the Chargers two games their rush defense has been incredible, which makes it pretty certain that Michael Turner won't have a big game. As for the other side, I can see the Falcons secondary posing just enough challenges to Rivers that they hold the Chargers in the 20s. The key is if Matt Ryan can get time and get his receivers open. I say he does, against a Chargers pass rush that is a little inconsistent right now.
Falcons 30 Chargers 24 (ATL +3)
Houston Texans (2-0) @ Denver Broncos (1-1) (Texans -2)
Man, after overrating the Broncos after their Week 1 win, people are now underrating them after a Week 2 loss. I think the Broncos at home under Manning is a pretty good bet, especially with that wicked no-huddle in the thin Denver air. By the second half, the Steelers were totally gassed on defense. Manning knows the Texans, and the Broncos rush defense has been really good so far. If they play close to that defensively against the Texans run game, they should be able to pull this one out.
Texans 24 Broncos 27 (DEN +3)
Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) @ Oakland Raiders (0-2) (Steelers -4)
This is an awful position for the Raiders, playing a good defense and a good passing offense without both of their opening day corners playing. I heavily doubt Darren McFadden gets it going in this game (he will soon, though). I can see the Steelers defense harassing Palmer. I think it will be closer than many, but that line seems way too low. The Steelers are a better team than a wounded Oakland group.
Steelers 27 Raiders 17 (PIT -4)
New England Patriots (1-1) @ Baltimore Ravens (1-1) (Ravens -2.5)
Oh man will this game be fun (a lot more fun if the Colts and Broncos do win earlier in the day). Both teams have so much to play for, the most of all is avoiding a 1-2 start. The Pats need to show the world that they can get by without Aaron Hernandez, as try to get past this Welker mess. I wouldn't be shocked if he has a massive game (or at least gets targeted a lot). The Ravens want revenge for the AFC Title Game, and to answer the questions that their defense is just merely good after a fluke loss last week. The Ravens have made Tom Brady mortal when he's had all his weapons in 2010 and last year's game, and I think they do it just enough here as well.
Patriots 20 Ravens 27 (BAL -2.5)
Green Bay Packers (1-1) @ Seattle Seahawks (1-1) (Packers -3)
The Seahawks are a good team, but I don't think they are at this level yet. That stadium should be loud and pumping on MNF, but the Packers should be ready with 10 days to prepare. Rodgers gets Jennings back, and although the Seahawks have a secondary that can compete, I don't know if that is really enough in this case. I don't think the Seahawks offense can score enough points to really keep up.
Packers 27 Seahawks 20 (GB -3)
Enjoy the Games!!
